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Bush approval ratings: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide (TIA) [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-13-07 03:04 AM
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Bush approval ratings: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide (TIA)
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Edited on Thu Dec-13-07 03:13 AM by tiptoe
Bush approval ratings: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide

TruthIsAll      http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/BushApprovalvsPo...


The Final 2004 National Exit Poll 'Voted 2000' category weightings have already been proven to be mathematically impossible. Similarly, the increase from 2000 in Bush's urban/suburban vote (the Urban Legend myth) has been shown to be totally implausible.

The 2004 trend in Bush monthly approval ratings and pre-election polls (Image) provides further proof that the final exit polls were forced to match a fraudulent vote count. Analysis of the data indicates that Kerry won 53% of the vote, a full 5% over his recorded share.

   1. There was a very strong 0.87 correlation between the 2004 pre-election polls and Bush approval ratings.
   2. The NEP and Florida exit poll approval weights did not match the actual Bush ratings on Election Day.

Bush's 11-poll average approval rating was 48.5% on Election Day. The preliminary National Exit Poll, updated at 7:33pm Nov.2, indicated 51% approval. But the Final National Exit Poll, posted at 1:25pm on Nov.3, indicated a 53% rating. The corresponding Bush vote shares were also increased. The Final exit poll adjustments were necessary in order to force a match the to the recorded Bush national vote share. The Florida Exit Poll also had Bush approval at 53%. Historically, Florida has closely matched the national rating.

Using the 48.5% average Bush approval instead of the published exit poll weights sharply increased Kerry's vote share:

      1) Florida Exit Poll:       from 49.4% to 53.3%
      2) 7:33pm NEP Update:       from 51.2% to 53.2%
      3) Final NEP:               from 48.5% to 52.3%

          Florida Exit Poll (n=2,409 respondents)
         Bush approval: 53%
            Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other

            Strong Appr 35 4 96 0
            Approve 18 17 82 1
            Disapprove 12 84 13 3
            Strong Disa 35 98 1 1
            Total 100 48.8 50.3 0.9


            Approve 53 9 91 0
            Disapprove 47 95 4 1
            Total 100 49.4 50.1 0.5


         Bush approval: 48.5%
            Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other

            Strong Appr 30.5 4 96 0
            Approve 18 17 82 1
            Disapprove 14 84 13 3
            Strong Disa 37.5 98 1 1
            Total 100 52.8 46.2 1.0


            Approve 48.5 9 91 0
            Disapprove 51.5 95 4 1
            Total 100 53.3 46.2 0.5

          7:33pm National Exit Poll (n=5,666)
         Bush approval: 51%
            Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other

            Strong Appr 32 7 93 0
            Approve 19 17 80 3
            Disapprove 12 81 16 3
            Strong Disa 37 97 2 1
            Total 100 51.1 47.6 1.3


            Approve 51 11 88 1
            Disapprove 49 93 5 2
            Total 100 51.2 47.3 1.5


         Bush approval: 48.5%
            Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other

            Strong Appr 30.5 7 93 0
            Approve 18 17 80 3
            Disapprove 14 81 16 3
            Strong Disa 37.5 97 2 1
            Total 100 52.9 45.8 1.3


            Approve 48.5 11 88 1
            Disapprove 51.5 93 5 2
            Total 100 53.2 45.3 1.5

          Final National Exit Poll (n=6,961)
         Bush approval: 53%
            Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other

            Strong Appr 33 5 94 1
            Approve 20 15 83 2
            Disapprove 12 80 18 2
            Strong Disa 35 97 2 1
            Total 100 48.2 50.5 1.3


            Approve 53 9 90 1
            Disapprove 47 93 6 1
            Total 100 48.5 50.5 1.0


         Bush approval: 48.5%
            Approval Weight KERRY BUSH Other

            Strong Appr 30.5 5 94 1
            Approve 18 15 83 2
            Disapprove 14 80 18 2
            Strong Disa 37.5 97 2 1
            Total 100 51.8 46.9 1.3


            Approve 48.5 9 90 1
            Disapprove 51.5 93 6 1
            Total 100 52.3 46.7 1
________________________________________________________

2004 Bush Approval Rating Trend (11 pollsters)
      Date   Nwk    Fox    CNN    Pew    Harris CBS    ABC    Time   NBC    AP     Zogby  Mean

      Jan 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49 54.5
      Feb 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na 49.7
      Mar 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na 48.8
      Apr 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47 48.8
      May 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42 45.2

      Jun na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46 47.0
      Jul 48 47 47 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49 48.0
      Aug 45 51 51 46 48 46 50 51 47 49 44 48.0
      Sep 48 50 52 46 45 48 50 53 47 54 47 49.1
      Oct 46 49 46 44 na 49 53 53 49 47 49 48.5

National Pre-election Polls
      2004   Jan    Feb    Mar    April  May    June   July   Aug    Sept   Oct
      Kerry 40.8 47.8 47.6 46.3 46.9 46.6 47.5 47.4 44.3 47.2
      Bush 51.6 46.1 44.8 45.6 44.7 45.7 45.2 45.4 48.3 46.9

Bush average approval rating trend: 11 national polls
      Bush   54.5   49.7   48.8   48.8   45.2   47.0   48.0   48.0   49.1   48.5

Correlation trend (current month to October):
      Corr   0.87   0.52   0.54   0.71   0.78   0.81   0.996  0.997   1.0       -

National Pre-election Projections
      Undecided voters: 75% to Kerry
      Kerry   45.8   51.6   52.5   51.6   52.4   51.6   52.2   52.1   49.1   50.9
      Bush 53.2 47.4 46.5 47.4 46.6 47.4 46.8 46.9 49.9 48.1

Polling detail and Kerry projections:
      TIPP                                                                
      Kerry na 44 45 40 43 43 46 44 46 44
      Bush na 41 43 44 42 44 43 44 45 45
      Proj na 54.5 53.3 51.3 53.5 52.0 53.5 52.3 52.0 51.5
      
      ABC

      Kerry na 52 53 48 49 53 47 49 45 48
      Bush na 43 44 49 47 45 49 48 51 47
      Proj na 55.0 54.5 49.5 51.3 53.8 49.3 50.5 47.3 51.0
      
      AP

      Kerry 37 na 45 44 43 43 45 48 42 49
      Bush 54 na 46 45 46 46 49 45 51 46
      Proj 43.0 na 51.0 51.5 50.5 50.5 48.8 52.5 46.5 52.0
      
      NWK

      Kerry 41 50 48 50 46 46 51 52 45 45
      Bush 52 45 45 43 45 45 45 44 50 48
      Proj 45.5 53.0 52.5 54.5 52.0 52.0 53.3 54.3 48.5 49.5
      
      ARG

      Kerry 47 48 50 50 47 48 49 49 46 49
      Bush 46 46 43 44 44 46 45 46 47 48
      Proj 51.5 51.8 54.5 53.8 53.0 51.8 52.8 52.0 50.5 50.5
      
      NBC

      Kerry 35 na 43 43 42 44 45 45 46 47
      Bush 54 na 46 46 46 45 47 47 49 48
      Proj 42.5 na 50.5 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 50.3 48.5 50.0
      
      FOX

      Kerry 32 43 44 42 42 42 42 45 43 48
      Bush 54 47 44 43 42 48 43 44 45 45
      Proj 41.8 49.8 52.3 52.5 53.3 48.8 52.5 52.5 51.3 52.5
      
      CBS

      Kerry 48 47 48 48 49 45 49 45 41 46
      Bush 43 46 43 43 41 44 44 44 49 47
      Proj 54.0 51.5 54.0 54.0 55.8 52.5 53.5 52.5 47.8 50.5
      
      Gallup

      Kerry 43 48 52 46 49 48 51 48 44 48
      Bush 55 49 44 51 47 49 44 47 52 46
      Proj 43.8 49.5 54.3 47.5 51.3 49.5 54.0 51.0 46.3 51.8
      
      Pew

      Kerry 41 47 48 47 50 46 46 47 40 46
      Bush 52 47 44 46 45 48 44 45 48 45
      Proj 45.5 50.8 53.3 51.5 53.0 49.8 52.8 52.3 48.3 52.0
      
      LAT

      Kerry na na na 49 49 51 48 46 43 48
      Bush na na na 46 46 44 46 49 47 47
      Proj na na na 52.0 52.0 54.0 51.8 48.5 49.8 51.0
      
      Zogby

      Kerry na na 48 47 47 44 48 50 44 47
      Bush na na 46 44 42 42 43 43 47 48
      Proj na na 51.8 53.0 54.5 53.8 54.0 54.5 50.0 50.0
      
      TIME

      Kerry 43 48 na na 51 51 50 46 44 46
      Bush 54 50 na na 46 46 45 46 48 51
      Proj 44.5 48.8 na na 52.5 52.5 53.0 51.3 49.3 47.5
      
      Dem Corp

      Kerry na 51 47 48 49 49 50 52 49 48
      Bush na 47 50 49 47 48 47 45 49 47
      Proj na 51.8 48.5 49.5 51.3 50.5 51.5 53.5 49.8 51.0
      
      Marist

      Kerry na na na na na na 45 45 45 49
      Bush na na na na na na 44 44 47 48
      Proj na na na na na na 52.5 52.5 50.3 50.5
      
      Harris

      Kerry na na na na na na na na 46 48
      Bush na na na na na na na na 48 47
      Proj na na na na na na na na 49.8 51.0
      
      Economist

      Kerry na na na na na na na na 46 49
      Bush na na na na na na na na 46 45
      Proj na na na na na na na na 51.3 52.8
      
      ICR

      Kerry na na na na na na na na 43 44
      Bush na na na na na na na na 50 46
      Proj na na na na na na na na 47.5 50.8
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