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Reply #111: Well I think that [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-18-07 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #109
111. Well I think that
Sancho is wrong. Exit polling is a very special kind of survey because it is a) vast and b) takes place on a single day. Most importantly, it is not intended to be a check on the accuracy of the vote count

For the purposes for which it is commissioned it is a pretty good design, although of course it can be improved. Mitofsky spent a huge amount of time and effort trying to figure out just how, by analysing the factors associated with the discrepancies in 2004. That was what he commissioned me to do further. If Sancho wants to design some polling exercise that IS intended to be a check on the accuracy of the vote count, good luck to him, but it is not at all clear to me that his suggestions would a)be possible or b) actually help.

If you want to know more about what they are supposed to be for and how they work, I wrote this piece here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/4/135126/905
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