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Reply #100: here's the problem in this context [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-17-07 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #99
100. here's the problem in this context
I think I completely agree with what you've said; it's been the crux of the exit poll debate(s?) from the beginning. Febble has written a lot about the reasons for thinking that the raw data aren't closer to the truth (OK, I guess now I have too), but it isn't something one would want to assume.

The pivot of this article is that the NEP national subsample crosstab has too many people voting in big cities, as well as too many of them voting for Bush. A point I don't think I've made clearly enough is that this was already true before the results were reweighted to put Bush ahead. So, at least at first glance, the fact that the table has too many big-city voters has nothing to do with whether the exits put Kerry or Bush ahead.

Here, again, is a link so you can see what I mean -- I don't remember the page number. But you'll see that this table shows Kerry ahead of Bush, and shows 13% of voters in big cities.

If the model hadn't put so many voters in big cities, it probably also wouldn't have shown such a large percentage swing to Bush.

Since we haven't discussed this subject before: I think it's possible that Kerry would have won the electoral vote in some parallel universe not far from this one. I don't think it's at all likely that the exit polls were anywhere near right.
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