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Reply #55: Rebuttal.... [View All]

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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-16-07 04:53 AM
Response to Reply #49
55. Rebuttal....
Where is your rebuttal of my point about the reweighting, about the non-correlation between discrepancy and increase in vote-share, and where is your rebuttal of OTOH's point about precinct sampling?


Why should I rebutt your point which as far as I can see has nothing to do with the argument in the OP. Ditto OTOH's point. Neither of you have a point. You seem to miss the import of the OP and proceed to simply rehash all your usual talking points about the vaguries of Exit Polls.

For example. When it comes to discussion of whether the voters are Big City, Urban, Suburban etc... that isn't even a EP question is it. Isn't that taken from the location of the precinct? And if so then isn't it immune to sampling error?

And if that is the case then how can the EP reweightings be based on so clearly erroneous turnout figures? Again as I am not an EP insider I do not know how these numbers are produced. I would guess that turnout figures are estimated for the NEP from other data/observations. And that these are then used to calculate the weightings used for the vote estimates. Stands to reason this would be the case.

I should have thought that rather than simply dismissing this OP as more of the same discussion that you have addressed in the past you might have been curious about these questions?

Finally. Further down I have asked further civil questions of you. If you awsi and OTOH are genuine then please engage. It would be enlightening for us all.
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