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Reply #24: to interpret your post slightly differently [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-15-07 05:36 AM
Response to Reply #20
24. to interpret your post slightly differently
I'm not quite sure whether Collins actually thinks that there were ghost urban votes for Bush, or whether he is only making the point that the exit poll is internally inconsistent, and that this somehow points to fraud. To paraphrase your post, since we wind up with a contradiction, the initial theorem has to be wrong.

I haven't seen any evidence of ghost urban votes in the official returns. The argument appears to hinge on the inconsistency of this table with the official returns.

It seems to me that there is a very basic confusion here. If the purpose of the final weighting is to match the official returns, and it doesn't match the official returns, then we can infer that something was wrong with the weighting. That's about it.

And, alas, 'impossible weightings' would be very much last year's argument, and the year before's -- although the specifics are different.

Conceivably the urban overweight could be a "clue" as to the location of miscounted votes, but if it doesn't point to ghost urban votes, where does it point? And if it does point to ghost urban votes, where are they? They don't appear to be in New York City or Chicago, which together contribute over 1/3 of the big-city precincts in the national subsample.

It would be nice for someone who finds Collins' work compelling to try to answer such questions. Pointing to Exit Poll Contradictions is not an end in itself.
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