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Reply #22: What happened to the analysis of number of rural votes? [View All]

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-15-07 04:02 AM
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22. What happened to the analysis of number of rural votes?
Edited on Fri Jun-15-07 04:04 AM by Awsi Dooger
Now that basketball season is over I guess I'll look at this election stuff again.

I scanned that OP quickly, whatever it was. The primary assertion was rural votes declined, from 23% total in 2000 to 16% in 2004. Okay, demonstrate. You say Bush lost 2.5 million rural votes. It shouldn't be difficult to look at rural counties and notice a dramatic decline in vote totals. That's the obvious balance, to go along with the inspection of vote totals from the largest cities, the ones that supposedly soared 66%.

Somehow, I don't think rural areas were scrutinized for this article. Or, if so, the numbers and findings were quietly shuffled aside when they didn't fit the NEP premise.

I've never been confident in that 2000 NEP. I seldom refer to it or quote numbers. It wasn't a major topic since all the focus was on Florida, but when I was entering the data at the time plenty of it didn't compute. For one thing, the percentage of self-identified conservatives is bizarre, down to 29%. That made no sense given the pre-election polling by PEW or Harris, or any polling before or since. Gore should have won handily if the nation were indeed only 29% self-identified conservatives. There is no greater correlation to statewide voting tendency than the liberal/conservative percentages.

BTW, I noticed there was no mention of the self-identified conservatives spiking wildly from 29% in 2000 to 34% in 2004. It's clear the fraud crew decided to scan the 2000 and 2004 NEPs looking for any oddity to frame an article, or 20, around. Since that 5% bump overwhelmingly favored Bush, they ignored it. I'd love to wager every penny and piece of real estate on this planet that if it had declined 5%, or the self-identified liberals had jumped 5%, or anything approaching that, they would have cyber hugged and written something even more elongated and declarative than this thread.

FWIW, there are two versions of the statewide 2000 exit polls available on the internet. That's been the case for years, although I don't know that I've ever seen it mentioned. I've tinkered with the differences from time to time. CNN has one version and MSNBC the other. There are dramatic variances, obviously one a pre-weighted version and the other a final. Some states are missing but you've got plenty to work with.

You'll note the NEP is identical on both CNN and MSNBC. But MSNBC also includes regional exit polls -- East, West, Midwest, South -- while CNN does not.

http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp?office=P&state=N...

Regarding exit polls, here's an excellent link I've been looking at recently. It's from the NY Times, called "Portrait of the Electorate," and includes voting percentage breakdowns in many categories in every presidential election from 1972 to 1996:

http://www.nytimes.com/library/politics/elect-port.html



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