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Reply #21: No, I am aware that it is a different argument [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-15-07 04:19 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. No, I am aware that it is a different argument
although it is not one that I think the exit poll data will bear. There simply isn't sufficient data. But it could be investigated much more powerfully by examination of the actual vote returns for 2000 and 2004.

But my point is that the inference drawn in the OP is actually contra-indicated by the exit poll data. If the inference in the OP is correct, then there must have been large scale fraud in some places but not others. This would have been highly likely to have shown up in the exit poll discrepancy data as large redshift (due to fraud) in some places but not in others. And indeed this was observed. However, if the redshift was due to fraud, then Bush would have tended to do better, relative to 2000, where there was redshift (due to fraud) than where there wasn't. In other words, if Bush's vote was boosted over his 2000 showing in some places by fraud (as the OP alleges), then those are the precincts that should have shown the greatest redshift. And there is simply not a sniff of a positive correlation between Bush's improvement in vote-share and the degree to which the exit polls indicated greater Kerry support than did the official count.
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