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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-14-07 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Firstly
Do you understand that the E-M exit polls are not even intended to monitor elections? They are designed for a quite different purpose, which they accomplish rather well.

For more information, see here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/4/135126/905

Secondly: AFAIK, and IK fairly well, OTOH has no "agenda" other than trying to find out what went wrong in 2004, and to figure out the best way of preventing it, or worse, happening again.

Thirdly: the patterns observed in the exit polls are not particularly difficult to account for, and in fact in the analysis I did for Mitofsky, I accounted for them fairly well, mostly in terms of factors likely to be associated with selection bias.

Fourthly: you are making an allegation that the pollsters are "hiding data". They have released a very large amount of data, including detailed responses from all the questionnaires used in the crosstabulations, and aggregate statistics of the discrepancies between their models and the official vote by state and also for the last five years. What has not been released is information that might allow respondents to be identified, and this is, of course, because the data were collected on the condition that the responses would be regarded as confidential.

If you think you can run an exit poll that would be of assistance in monitoring elections, why not contact Steve Freeman, and offer your services. I'm sure he would be very grateful. But the E-M poll was not designed to do that, and when reverse-engineered to try to do it, the findings did not support the theory that the discrepancy was due fraud.
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