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Reply #47: oh, I had wondered about that [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-05-07 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #45
47. oh, I had wondered about that
Just for your own sake, I'm not sure it's a great idea to say that the Titanium Standard calls for a 10% sample when it actually doesn't. (I don't know what the process was, but if I and Febble hashed out some sort of recommendation, and then she went off and said we had agreed on something else, I might hit one of my legendary sour notes.) Of course that's a separate matter from the merits of a 10% sample.

If you want to audit House races effectively (to verify the winner), a 10% sample would probably suffice down to about a 2-point margin. After that, it gets iffy. Most races don't have 2-point margins, so that isn't so bad as long as you are prepared to "go higher" in the close races. (RSOB will consistently be considerably more than 10% of ballots in House races -- certainly less in CA statewide races.)

What can I say? your own document makes the case why it isn't a great idea to rely upon a flat percentage. But if one must, a high flat percentage will usually work provided that people are prepared to accept it.

I think a lot of us are still worried that a 10% election night sample is a logistical loser, at least in some places -- but I'm not going to pound the table on account of my hunches and assumptions about such things. (Of course I think you should pay close attention to the logistical concerns, valid or not.) There is more than one way to get to high confidence, and different states may well take different approaches depending on size, institutions, culture, luck, maybe even whimsy.
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