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Reply #47: oh, I had wondered about that [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-05-07 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #45
47. oh, I had wondered about that
Just for your own sake, I'm not sure it's a great idea to say that the Titanium Standard calls for a 10% sample when it actually doesn't. (I don't know what the process was, but if I and Febble hashed out some sort of recommendation, and then she went off and said we had agreed on something else, I might hit one of my legendary sour notes.) Of course that's a separate matter from the merits of a 10% sample.

If you want to audit House races effectively (to verify the winner), a 10% sample would probably suffice down to about a 2-point margin. After that, it gets iffy. Most races don't have 2-point margins, so that isn't so bad as long as you are prepared to "go higher" in the close races. (RSOB will consistently be considerably more than 10% of ballots in House races -- certainly less in CA statewide races.)

What can I say? your own document makes the case why it isn't a great idea to rely upon a flat percentage. But if one must, a high flat percentage will usually work provided that people are prepared to accept it.

I think a lot of us are still worried that a 10% election night sample is a logistical loser, at least in some places -- but I'm not going to pound the table on account of my hunches and assumptions about such things. (Of course I think you should pay close attention to the logistical concerns, valid or not.) There is more than one way to get to high confidence, and different states may well take different approaches depending on size, institutions, culture, luck, maybe even whimsy.
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  -(A Hopeful Tale by Lindeman & Stanislevic) H.R. 811: Fact & Friction -- Part III Wilms  Apr-01-07 06:31 PM   #0 
  - 10% at the PRECINCT is better than 100% hcpb at the County  Einsteinia   Apr-01-07 11:13 PM   #1 
  - Isn't this the same thing Kathy Dopp has been talking about for several months?  Stevepol   Apr-02-07 04:48 AM   #2 
  - sure, similar philosophies  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-02-07 10:06 AM   #4 
  - Well, it's . . .  Einsteinia   Apr-02-07 11:43 AM   #6 
     - you may have gotten confused about who was replying to whom  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-02-07 05:52 PM   #8 
        - Clarification  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 12:56 AM   #16 
  - No, it's very different & here's how:  Einsteinia   Apr-02-07 11:12 AM   #5 
     - Has "The Titanium" been peer reviewed?  Wilms   Apr-02-07 09:21 PM   #9 
        - Yes, it has been peer reviewed  Einsteinia   Apr-02-07 10:51 PM   #10 
           - I meant statisticians, not advocacy groups.  Wilms   Apr-02-07 11:35 PM   #12 
              - Yes and Yes  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 01:05 AM   #17 
                 - I don't need a PhD to know that 10% is better than 5%.  Wilms   Apr-03-07 01:30 AM   #19 
                    - Wilms, I think you lost me, BUT  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 02:36 AM   #20 
                       - that claim needs to be clarified  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-03-07 08:16 AM   #21 
                          - Details to Clarify  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 01:29 PM   #24 
                             - no necessary conflict  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-03-07 02:31 PM   #27 
                                - Oh, YES, you're right  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 03:24 PM   #29 
  - A pdf containing information about Dopp's approach, one of several, is the following:  Stevepol   Apr-02-07 08:05 AM   #3 
  - One of several? That's part of the problem.  Bill Bored   Apr-02-07 04:12 PM   #7 
  - ok, I like it  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-02-07 11:27 PM   #11 
  - I think this picture is pretty. Hopefully the authors can get their graphics to speak.  Wilms   Apr-02-07 11:50 PM   #13 
     - the sticking point I believe is that  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-03-07 12:22 AM   #14 
        - Instead of quibbling over vote count percentage...  Wilms   Apr-03-07 12:31 AM   #15 
           - and on that point, we can have NO confidence  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 01:10 AM   #18 
           - Confidence  Bill Bored   Apr-04-07 02:39 AM   #30 
              - Hmmm? How do you. . .  Einsteinia   Apr-04-07 03:36 AM   #31 
           - I agree, I am just saying what the mental block is for lawmakers  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-03-07 12:14 PM   #22 
              - well, some of what the lawmakers are worried about isn't clear  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-03-07 01:08 PM   #23 
                 - the Titanium proposes this formula:  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 01:42 PM   #25 
                    - you sort of skipped the formula part (grin)  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-03-07 02:27 PM   #26 
                       - I have to admit  Einsteinia   Apr-03-07 02:55 PM   #28 
                          - I hope I got a lot of it  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-04-07 05:44 PM   #32 
                             - No, it's. . .  Einsteinia   Apr-04-07 07:27 PM   #33 
                                - well, like I said...  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-04-07 08:23 PM   #34 
                                - I don't think 10% is enough for all races.  Bill Bored   Apr-04-07 08:30 PM   #35 
                                   - Two Things:  Einsteinia   Apr-04-07 11:34 PM   #36 
                                   - hmmm....  Febble   Apr-05-07 04:02 AM   #37 
                                      - Appendix A discusses that -- it's a bit iffy  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-05-07 08:13 AM   #39 
                                      - Magician sounds good  Febble   Apr-05-07 11:23 AM   #40 
                                      - Aha!  Einsteinia   Apr-05-07 11:57 AM   #42 
                                         - I guess I would not use that word  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-05-07 12:26 PM   #43 
                                            - Superbly stated. . . .  Einsteinia   Apr-05-07 01:39 PM   #44 
                                               - Good job!  Febble   Apr-05-07 02:02 PM   #46 
                                      - The Appendix allows. . . .  Einsteinia   Apr-05-07 11:53 AM   #41 
                                   - actually, their document doesn't call for a 10% audit  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-05-07 06:37 AM   #38 
                                      - attaining legislation: 10% or flat rate  Einsteinia   Apr-05-07 01:46 PM   #45 
                                         - oh, I had wondered about that  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-05-07 02:10 PM   #47 
                                            - Great feedback & one last thing  Einsteinia   Apr-06-07 01:39 AM   #48 

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