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Reply #192: 2004 Election Model: Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model Tables -- TruthIsAll [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-16-08 11:29 PM
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192. 2004 Election Model: Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model Tables -- TruthIsAll
Edited on Thu Jul-17-08 12:09 AM by tiptoe

THE 2004 ELECTION MODEL

Projection
EV
Vote%
Prob%

Kerry
Bush
337
201
51.80
48.20
99.90
0.10



Undecided Voter Allocation
Kerry
60%
67%
75%
80%
87%


Kerry election trials
Win
Probability
4901
98.02
4972
99.44
4995
99.90
4997
99.94
4999
99.98


Projected Vote Share
Kerry
Bush
51.02
48.98
51.38
48.62
51.80
48.20
52.07
47.93
52.43
47.57


Electoral Vote
Average
Median
 
320
322
 
328
329
 
337
338
 
343
345
 
352
353
 

Maximum
Minimum
379
211
388
237
399
223
405
243
412
254


95% Confidence Level
Upper
Lower
361
278
368
288
376
298
382
305
389
315


National 18-polls
Vote%
Prob%
50.73
97.55
51.15
99.90
51.63
100.00
51.92
100.00
52.34
100.00


States Won
24
25
26
26
27



2004 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

State Pre-Election polls, Projections, Exit polls and Recorded vote

 
 
 
 
Pre-Election Polls
(Pre Undecided Voter Alloc)
 
 
Projected
(After 75% UVA)
 
 
State Exit Poll
(Based on WPE)
 
 
Recorded Vote
( Official Vote Count )
 
 
SEP Proj
 
 
SEP Vote
 
 
Exit Poll
 
Projected
EV
 
SEP
EV
 
 
Proj SEP
 
 
Proj Vote
 
 
WPE   
State
Wtd Avg

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
  538  

9
3
10
6
55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4
4
21
11

7
6
8
9
4

10
12
17
10
6

11
3
5
5
4

15
5
31
15
3

20
7
7
21
4

8
3
11
34
5

3
13
11
5
10
3
Kerry
 47.7 % 

39
30
45
46
49

47
52
78
45
50

42
45
30
54
39

50
37
39
40
50

54
64
52
52
42

44
36
32
49
47

50
49
57
47
35

50
28
50
50
56

42
42
47
37
24

53
47
52
45
51
29
Bush
 47.0 % 

57
57
50
48
42

48
42
11
38
47

52
45
59
42
58

44
60
56
48
39

43
27
45
44
51

49
57
61
49
47

42
49
39
50
55

47
61
44
45
36

55
52
50
59
69

40
51
44
49
44
65
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.0 % 

41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0

50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5

45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5

53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5

55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5

48.5
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8

55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8

51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3

43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5

57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 

42.5
40.3
46.7
44.8
59.8

50.1
62.2
90.9
61.3
50.9

42.5
56.4
30.8
57.0
40.0

50.7
37.5
39.6
44.1
55.5

60.0
64.8
54.4
55.7
45.8

49.0
37.7
36.7
52.9
57.0

57.8
52.9
64.1
49.2
32.9

54.2
33.5
53.0
55.3
61.8

45.9
36.3
42.8
40.6
29.2

66.4
49.4
57.0
40.3
52.0
31.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 48.3 % 

36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3

47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1

41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3

49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6

55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
40.2

46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2

52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5

48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4

40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0

58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
Bush
 50.7 % 

62.5
61.1
54.9
54.3
44.4

51.7
43.9
9.3
45.8
52.1

58.0
45.3
68.4
44.5
59.9

49.9
62.0
59.6
56.7
44.6

42.9
36.8
47.8
47.6
59.0

53.3
59.1
65.9
50.5
48.9

46.2
49.8
40.1
56.0
62.9

50.8
65.6
47.2
48.4
38.7

58.0
59.9
56.8
61.1
71.5

38.8
53.7
45.6
56.1
49.3
68.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diff
  0.8 %  

1.2
1.3
(1.3)
(5.0)
4.8

0.1
6.4
5.4
4.3
(0.6)

(3.3)
4.6
(6.7)
0.8
(0.5)

(3.0)
(1.0)
(2.4)
(4.1)
(2.0)

4.5
(5.2)
0.9
1.5
(0.7)

0.5
(2.8)
0.2
3.2
6.3

2.5
3.2
4.8
0.7
(8.9)

2.7
(2.0)
(0.8)
2.3
0.5

2.4
(9.4)
(5.7)
1.4
0.7

8.9
1.7
2.8
(8.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
Diff
  3.6 %  

5.7
4.8
2.3
0.3
5.5

3.1
7.9
1.7
8.0
3.8

1.1
2.4
0.5
2.2
0.8

1.5
0.9
(0.0)
1.9
1.9

4.1
2.9
3.2
4.7
5.7

2.9
(0.9)
4.1
5.1
6.8

4.9
3.9
5.7
5.7
(2.6)

5.5
(1.0)
1.7
4.4
2.4

5.0
(2.1)
0.3
2.4
3.2

7.5
4.0
4.2
(2.9)
2.4
2.2
WPE
  7.1 %  

11.3
9.6
4.6
0.5
10.9

6.1
15.7
3.4
15.9
7.6

2.2
4.7
1.0
4.4
1.5

3.0
1.7
(0.1)
3.8
3.8

8.1
5.8
6.3
9.3
11.3

5.8
(1.8)
8.1
10.1
13.6

9.7
7.8
11.4
11.3
(5.2)

10.9
(1.9)
1.8
8.8
4.7

10.0
(4.2)
0.5
4.8
6.4

15.0
7.9
8.4
(5.8)
4.7
4.3
Kerry
  331  




6
55

9
7
3
3
27


4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10





5
4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3

11

10
Kerry
  325  





55

9
7
3
3
27


4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10





5
4

15
5
31



20

7
21
4







3

11

10

< 2.0%
   21   

yes
yes
yes



yes



yes




yes
yes


yes






yes
yes
yes

yes

yes






yes




yes

yes




yes
yes


yes


yes
yes
> 2.0%
   33   

yes
yes
yes
yes


yes


yes
yes

yes

yes



yes

yes
yes
yes


yes
yes
yes
yes

yes

yes



yes


yes
yes

yes

yes
yes


yes
yes
yes

yes


yes

yes
yes
yes
> 6.0%
   25   

yes
yes


yes

yes
yes

yes
yes













yes

yes
yes
yes



yes
yes
yes

yes
yes
yes
yes


yes


yes


yes



yes

yes
yes
yes




 


The Election Model Final 18 National Pre-Election Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
   
 
Sample
Poll
 
Final Poll
 
75 % UVA Projected
 
5-Poll Moving Average
 
5-poll Moving Average, 2-party
   Election Model
   18 National Polls
    
    Harris
    Zogby
    Marist
    Econ
    TIPP
 
    CBS
    FOX
    Dem Cor
    Gallup
    NBC
 
    ABC
    ARG
    Pew
    Nwk
    ICR
 
    LAT
    Time
    AP
Date
Average

2-Nov
2-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov

1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct

31-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct
29-Oct
26-Oct

24-Oct
21-Oct
20-Oct
Size
 1720 

5508
1200
1166
2903
1284

1125
1400
1018
1866
1014

3511
1258
2408
1005
817

1698
803
976
Type


LV
LV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
LV
RV
RV
RV
 
RV
LV
LV
Kerry
 47.3 %

50
47
49
49
44
 
46
48
48
48
47
 
48
49
46
45
44
 
48
46
49
Bush
 46.9 %

47
48
48
45
45
 
47
45
47
46
48
 
47
48
45
48
46
 
47
51
46
 
Kerry
 50.90 %

51.5
50.0
50.5
52.8
51.5

50.5
52.5
51.0
51.8
50.0

51.0
50.5
52.0
49.5
50.8

51.0
47.5
52.0
Bush
 48.10 %

47.5
49.0
48.5
46.3
47.5

48.5
46.5
48.0
47.3
49.0

48.0
48.5
47.0
49.5
48.3

48.0
51.5
47.0
 
Kerry
 51.3 %

51.3
51.1
51.6
51.7
51.5

51.2
51.3
50.9
51.1
50.6

50.8
50.8
50.2
50.2
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 47.8 %

47.8
48.0
47.5
47.4
47.6
 
47.9
47.8
48.2
48.0
48.4
 
48.3
48.3
48.9
48.9
na
 
na
na
na
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 

51.8
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.0

51.7
51.8
51.4
51.6
51.1

51.3
51.3
50.7
50.7
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 48.2 % 

48.2
48.4
47.9
47.8
48.0
 
48.3
48.2
48.6
48.4
48.9
 
48.7
48.7
49.3
49.3
na
 
na
na
na
Diff
 3.6 % 

3.6
3.2
4.2
4.4
4.0

3.4
3.6
2.8
3.2
2.2

2.6
2.6
1.4
1.4
na
 
na
na
na

 

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