You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #181: I wish he would get the facts right [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-12-07 06:36 AM
Response to Reply #180
181. I wish he would get the facts right
"...pollsters Zogby and Harris estimated that Kerry won 75% of the undecideds."

In ordinary English, this would mean that after the election, Zogby and Harris... well, estimated that Kerry won 75% of the undecideds. I would even venture that it does mean that. So, is that true?

Looking at TIA's own links to purported supporting evidence, see if you can find anything stronger than this:

From Zogby, 10/29/04:
The key reason why I still think that Kerry will win, perhaps, possibly (laughter) -- have I made myself clear here? Okay. That traditionally, the undecideds break for the challenger against the incumbent on the basis of the fact, simply, that the voters already know the incumbent, and it's a referendum on the incumbent. And if the incumbent is polling, generally, under 50 percent and leading by less than 10, historically, incumbents have lost 7 out of 10 times.

http://fpc.state.gov/fpc/37588.htm

From Harris, 11/2/04:
In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the elections, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?...

Did Zogby and Harris estimate that Kerry won 75% of the undecideds? Or did TIA just make that up?

Setting aside TIA's potted facts, his argument is pretty poor as well. Even if we knew what proportion of people who called themselves "undecided" ended up voting for Kerry, we don't know how they answered the "when decided" question. In the exit poll, about 5% of respondents said they decided "today," 4% in the "last three days," and 2% "last week." So, if the proportion of "undecided" respondents fell from 11% a week before the election to 5% on election day, we at least might have a pretty good match between the two lines of evidence. Did that happen? not so much. Did anything remotely like that happen?

Hmm. I wonder why TIA hasn't answered that question already, as a first step in validating his analysis.

Weird "science."
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC