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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-22-07 04:15 AM
Response to Original message
171. Updated
Edited on Thu Nov-22-07 05:14 AM by tiptoe

State Exit Poll Deviations by Voting Method   http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllF...

The percentage mix of National Voting Methods (Image) are comprised of:

DREs- 29%   Optical scanners- 37%   Levers-18%   Punch cards- 12%   Paper- 2%   Unknown/Other- 2%.
  • Kerry won the state-weighted national poll by 51.8-47.2%.
  • The net 4.26m "red-shift" is based on the average state exit poll WPE
  • There were 1249 precincts exit-polled nationwide.
  • The largest vote deviations and corresponding machine mix were in the following states:

California (668k): 66% Optiscan; 29% DRE

New York (415k): Lever machines (99%)

Ohio (305k): 72% Punch cards; 16% DRE; 12% Optiscan

Florida (287k): 56% DRE; 44% Optiscan

Pennsylvania (252k): 26% DRE; 12% Optiscan; 49% Lever; 12% Punch cards

The only all-lever states are NY (-11.4% WPE) and CT (-15.7%).
Pennsylvania is 49% Lever (-8.8% WPE).
Oregon voted 100% by mail-in ballots (included in Other category).

Recorded 2-party vote by Voting Method:


Total DRE Optiscan Lever Punch Paper Other
121056 36715 45646 15762 15103 2842 4988
100% 30.3% 37.7% 13.0% 12.5% 2.3% 4.1%

Total Deviation to Bush from Exit Poll


Dev DRE Optiscan Lever Punch Paper Other
4258 1215 1564 788 514 89 88
100% 28.5% 36.7% 18.5% 12.1% 2.1% 2.1%

State Exit Polls: Average Within Precinct Error


Average WPE
Precincts mean median ABS
TOTAL 1249 -6.77 -6.54 13.76

URBAN >50K
Opti 350 -7.2 -5.8 12.3
Paper 35 -1.6 -0.6 10.5
Lever 26 -3.2 -5.4 14.7
DRE 88 -6.0 -4.8 14.8
Punch 50 -0.8 -1.7 12.0

TOTAL 549 -5.88 -4.92 12.67

SUBURBAN
Paper 5 -6.0 -11.5 15.7
Lever 92 -12.7 -12.5 16.8
DRE 272 -7.5 -7.6 14.8
Punch 108 -9.3 -10.0 15.2
TOTAL 477 -8.89 -9.13 15.29

RURAL <50K
Opti 223 -4.4 -5.0 13.2

Exit Poll Precincts: Voting Method by Location-size


DRE Optiscan Lever Punch Paper Total

Urban>500k 43 45 11 6 0 105
Urban>50k 76 114 15 30 0 235
Suburbs 153 191 66 72 5 487
10-50k 38 59 8 19 2 126
Rural 50 164 18 31 33 296

TOTAL 360 573 118 158 40 1249
28.8% 45.9% 9.4% 12.7% 3.2% 100%

URBAN >50K 119 159 26 36 0 340
SUBURBS 153 191 66 72 5 487
RURAL <50K 88 223 26 50 35 422

TOTAL 360 573 118 158 40 1249

State Voting Method Mix


Dev - Deviation from recorded vote (in thousands)
WPE - Within Precinct Error ( - Kerry + Bush )

Percentage Mix


ST WPE Dev DRE Opti Lever Punch Paper Other
CA -10.9% -668 29 66 0 4 0 0
NY -11.4% -415 1 0 99 0 0 0
OH -10.9% -305 16 12 0 72 0 0
FL -7.6% -287 56 44 0 0 0 0
PA -8.8% -252 26 12 49 12 1 0

NC -11.3% -197 43 43 2 9 0 4
TX -4.8% -177 45 45 3 5 2 0
NJ -9.7% -174 73 1 25 0 0 0
MI -6.3% -151 4 60 12 20 4 0
MN -9.3% -130 0 91 0 0 9 0

VA -7.9% -125 33 22 27 16 0 1
CT -15.7% -122 0 0 100 0 0 0
WA -8.4% -118 14 63 0 23 0 0
IL -4.4% -115 0 32 0 63 0 5
AL -11.3% -106 15 85 0 0 0 0

MD -8.1% -96 100 0 0 0 0 0
MA -5.8% -83 0 69 6 0 21 4
SC -10.0% -80 86 14 0 0 0 0
MO -5.8% -79 0 12 0 65 1 22
WI -4.7% -70 0 54 0 0 18 28

CO -6.1% -64 37 61 0 1 0 0
MS -11.3% -64 15 68 8 9 0 0
NH -13.6% -46 0 65 0 0 35 0
NV -10.1% -41 100 0 0 0 0 0
LA -3.8% -37 54 0 46 0 0 0

GA -2.2% -36 100 0 0 0 0 0
NE -8.1% -31 0 56 0 0 4 40
NM -7.8% -29 90 10 0 0 0 0
UT -6.4% -29 0 0 0 9 0 91
AZ -4.6% -24 0 100 0 0 0 0

VT -15.0% -23 0 51 0 0 49 0
IA -3.0% -22 11 88 1 0 0 0
IN -1.5% -18 79 0 1 20 0 1
DE -15.9% -18 100 0 0 0 0 0
AK -9.6% -14 0 90 0 0 10 0

ME -3.8% -14 0 67 0 0 33 0
RI -4.7% -10 0 100 0 0 0 0
HI -4.7% -10 50 50 0 0 0 0
KS -1.7% -10 37 60 0 0 3 0
DC -3.4% -6 50 50 0 0 0 0

TN -0.5% -6 75 10 5 11 0 0
WY -4.3% -5 2 76 3 14 5 0
AR -0.5% -5 5 65 9 17 4 0
ID -1.0% -3 0 33 0 60 8 0
OR 0.0% 0 0 18 0 0 0 82

KY 0.1% 1 81 17 2 0 0 0
MT 1.8% 4 0 81 0 13 6 0
ND 5.2% 8 7 90 0 0 3 0
SD 4.2% 8 0 1 0 0 6 93
OK 1.9% 14 0 100 0 0 0 0
WV 5.8% 22 8 42 6 37 7 0

Votes -4258 -1215 -1564 -788 -514 -89 -88
Mix 100% 28.5% 36.7% 18.5% 12.1% 2.1% 2.1%

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