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Reply #164: Significant correlation between the state exit polls and the 5m late recorded votes: [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-09-07 06:48 PM
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164. Significant correlation between the state exit polls and the 5m late recorded votes:
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllF...

...There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote shares and the
exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation
statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.

This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote:
1) the high correlation (Image) between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern (Image) of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to the initial recorded.
...
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