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Reply #99: The dynamic changes from cycle to cycle [View All]

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-13-07 06:45 PM
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99. The dynamic changes from cycle to cycle
First of all, remarkable energy in this thread. I have no idea how it's managed. I was "predicting" one response after another, solely because it's a pure rerun. And not the first time.

I don't understand the insistence that voting tendencies from 2000 to 2004 had to remain more or less identical, minus fraud. That conveniently ignores obvious situational variance. You basically have two presidential scenarios that are played out repeatedly; an open race after one party has held power two straight terms, and an incumbent with his party in power only one term. It's rank foolishness to assert the American public doesn't shift considerably depending on which mode is in play.

The open race is a 50/50 struggle normally with slight advantage to the out party. That's where Bush was in 2000, although it can be argued the strength of the Clinton economy negated the out-party edge, and Gore was robbed/blew it, in a slightly favorable scenario. But 2004 shifted to incumbent advantage, a benefit of a doubt. TIA knows this. Look at every post WW II incumbent whose party had been in power only one term: Eisenhower in '56, Nixon in '72, Carter in '76, Reagan in '84, Clinton in '96, and Bush in '04. For practical purposes you can throw in LBJ in '64 also. Only Carter and his horrific approval rating failed, the only incumbent in that situation to be denied since 1900. Bush would have been dismissed also, if his approval number had threatened Carter's, let alone anything post-Katrina. Every other incumbent significantly improved his popular vote from four years earlier, even Ike in a pure rematch. At 48.5 approval, which TIA concedes, Bush was simply far below average for an incumbent but hardly in the fatal range. The 50% number was nice and round and easily quoted, based on a handful of samples, primarily considerably above and below 50%. Now that a 48.5 has succeeded, next time the media and pundits will backfit downward.

TIA also makes the mistake of wondering why Gore voters shifted to Bush. They short-term shifted to the Republican party in federal races, due to national security alarm post-9/11. Bush was simply part of the package deal. I've posted those related links so many times I got sick of it more than two years ago, links from PEW and elsewhere that forecast 2002 and 2004 changing vote tendencies from blocks like white women and Hispanics. Bush was hardly the only goofball Republican who benefitted. Check out the GOP senators who won in 2002 and 2004, flubs like Sununu and Coleman and Talent and Coburn and Murkowski and DeMint. Oh yeah, those were all fraud also. I almost forgot. The revolving door. That's why I need to get back to my basketball Excel analysis, where the scorebaord is more or less unquestioned.
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