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Reply #88: TIA: If you can say 15% Gore voters defected to Bush, I can say 15% of Bush voters defected to Kerry [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
caruso Donating Member (48 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-12-07 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #52
88. TIA: If you can say 15% Gore voters defected to Bush, I can say 15% of Bush voters defected to Kerry
Edited on Mon Feb-12-07 10:01 AM by caruso
Ok, two can play your "Game".

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQRes...

KERRY VOTE SHARE
(sensitivity to Kerry share of returning Gore and Bush voters)
2000 Voter Turnout:
95% Gore
95% Bush

.........Gore
.........85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0% 95.0%
Bush
15%...52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2% 56.0%
13%...51.4% 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2%
11%...50.6% 51.4% 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5%
9%.....49.9% 50.7% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0% 53.7%

7%.....49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.4% 52.2% 53.0%
5%.....48.4% 49.1% 49.9% 50.7% 51.4% 52.2%
3%.....47.6% 48.4% 49.2% 49.9% 50.7% 51.4%
1%.....46.9% 47.6% 48.4% 49.2% 49.9% 50.7%

KERRY VOTE MARGIN
.........Gore
........85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0% 95.0%
Bush
15%...6.71 8.63 10.55 12.48 14.40 16.32
13%...4.80 6.73 8.65 10.57 12.50 14.42
11%...2.90 4.82 6.75 8.67 10.59 12.52
9%....1.00 2.92 4.85 6.77 8.69 10.61

7%....-0.90 1.02 2.94 4.87 6.79 8.71
5%....-2.81 -0.88 1.04 2.96 4.89 6.81
3%....-4.71 -2.79 -0.86 1.06 2.98 4.91
1%....-6.61 -4.69 -2.76 -0.84 1.08 3.00
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