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Reply #81: OK, rephrase [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-11-07 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #80
81. OK, rephrase
Your argument is slightly more nuanced, I admit. Your argument is that not less than X percent of Gore voters plus Y percent of DNV2K voters would have voted for Kerry, therefore Kerry must have won.

But your X and Y values come from your conviction that an unpopular president couldn't win, and from your idiosyncratic interpretation of the pre-election polls. They do not arise directly from the math. There is no mathematical basis for your X and Y values. Those are what I meant by your implicit assumptions. They are heuristics, based on hunch. And somewhat ill-informed hunch at that.

And that is before we even mention your assumptions that the poll was a random sample,or that the percentage of Gore, Bush2K and DNV2K can be accurately inferred from responses to the past vote question.

Not only are these assumptions unjustified, but they fly in the face of evidence. Evidence that you consistently choose to ignore.

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