WillYourVoteBCounted
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Sun Feb-11-07 01:04 AM
Response to Original message |
| 67. Lynn Landes: Exit Poll Madness |
|
March 3, 2005 Give Us Ballots We Can Count Exit Poll Madness By LYNN LANDES Beware of exit polls and the analysts who study them. These folks would have us believe that exit polls tell the gospel truth. They even quote the duplicitous toe-sucking Dick Morris to make their case. "Exit polls are almost never wrong," Morris writes. The man is a known creep. http://www.counterpunch.org/landes03032005.html |
| -Up-to-date compendium of TIA's work on 2004 election fraud. |
bleever |
Jan-28-07 06:54 PM |
#0 |
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Thanks Bro... |
ClassWarrior |
Jan-28-07 06:59 PM |
#1 |
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Hey Wally? |
bleever |
Jan-28-07 08:48 PM |
#4 |
| -
.. |
Kurovski |
Jan-29-07 12:00 PM |
#8 |
 -
.. |
autorank |
Jun-06-07 03:19 AM |
#143 |
| -
NEW Jan. 27, 2007. OHIO 2004: 6.15% Kerry-Bush vote-switch found in probability study |
L. Coyote |
Feb-11-07 10:27 AM |
#78 |
| -
Latest Update: April 15 |
glengarry |
Apr-17-07 08:49 PM |
#140 |
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4/27 Update: A Recorded State Vote Smoking Gun ? (not a polling analysis) |
glengarry |
Apr-27-07 11:33 PM |
#142 |
| -
Kick |
BeFree |
Jun-18-08 11:11 AM |
#191 |
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Interesting note - this thread was never recommended, not by even one single person |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Apr-26-08 10:25 AM |
#187 |
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The post received many recommendations... |
tiptoe |
Apr-26-08 12:35 PM |
#188 |
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actually, TIA is doomed to be more recced than read |
OnTheOtherHand |
Apr-26-08 12:53 PM |
#189 |
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KR...........nt |
kster |
Jan-28-07 07:11 PM |
#2 |
| -
kick |
tiptoe |
Jun-06-08 09:24 AM |
#190 |
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Highly, highly recommended! |
Peace Patriot |
Jan-28-07 08:01 PM |
#3 |
| -
Remembered Conversation - Susan Truitt, Andy Stephenson |
truedelphi |
Jan-29-07 07:48 PM |
#11 |
| -
That's a memory |
bleever |
Jan-29-07 10:10 PM |
#14 |
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type of nonsense = "...officials, under color of law, depriving citizens of consitutional rights..." |
tiptoe |
Sep-14-07 05:10 PM |
#163 |
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TIA-a true patriot! |
mod mom |
Jan-28-07 08:51 PM |
#5 |
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Who is this person? |
troubleinwinter |
Jan-28-07 09:36 PM |
#6 |
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he was banned from DU n/t |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-11-07 12:56 AM |
#65 |
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His name is "Truth" !! Do you need more than that? |
galloglas |
Feb-17-07 08:05 PM |
#101 |
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Not only was TIA tombstoned, so was his sockpuppet, "caruso". How's that for truth? |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-18-07 03:32 PM |
#103 |
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Your point is?? |
galloglas |
Feb-18-07 07:34 PM |
#104 |
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The point is that a sockpuppet- pretending to be someone other than who you are- |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-19-07 06:23 AM |
#107 |
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That fails to answer |
galloglas |
Feb-19-07 12:00 PM |
#111 |
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You have lost me. |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-19-07 12:18 PM |
#112 |
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You once were lost, but now you're found. |
galloglas |
Feb-19-07 01:00 PM |
#113 |
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Nope. |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-19-07 01:12 PM |
#114 |
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Nope is correct. |
galloglas |
Feb-19-07 01:35 PM |
#116 |
| -
Deleted message |
Name removed |
Feb-19-07 01:44 PM |
#118 |
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he is confused about "ad hominem," too |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-19-07 03:08 PM |
#120 |
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what a remarkably inapposite analogy |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-19-07 08:16 AM |
#109 |
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Moved to proper spot |
galloglas |
Feb-19-07 11:58 AM |
#110 |
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what about these new sock puppets? |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-19-07 01:30 AM |
#106 |
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A big K&R...That's quite a recource...and it's free! |
autorank |
Jan-29-07 04:29 AM |
#7 |
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Too bad there's more money in stealing elections |
bleever |
Feb-17-07 05:32 PM |
#100 |
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Also a section on the 2006 |
bleever |
Jan-29-07 02:44 PM |
#9 |
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kick.nt |
kster |
Jan-29-07 07:37 PM |
#10 |
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Thanks Bleever! TIA Rocks and so do you! K&R! n/t |
Melissa G |
Jan-29-07 08:32 PM |
#12 |
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Takes one to know one! |
bleever |
Jan-29-07 10:01 PM |
#13 |
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KICK FOR FEB 4 UPDATE |
caruso |
Feb-04-07 02:46 PM |
#15 |
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Contents and Introduction to the FAQ response |
caruso |
Feb-06-07 10:13 PM |
#16 |
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fact check |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-07-07 08:01 AM |
#17 |
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Deleted message |
Name removed |
Feb-07-07 11:02 AM |
#19 |
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this ad hominem rant doesn't respond to the content of my post |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-07-07 11:35 AM |
#20 |
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soon they will be able to do this same thing over 2008 election |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-19-07 01:29 PM |
#115 |
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or even if it isn't -- unverified voting is a no-win |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-19-07 02:50 PM |
#119 |
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Well... |
Febble |
Feb-07-07 08:57 AM |
#18 |
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TIA: A response |
caruso |
Feb-08-07 12:45 PM |
#21 |
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Well, I already addressed these, prolifically, but.... |
Febble |
Feb-08-07 01:47 PM |
#22 |
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the Harris link worked for me, but it isn't Lou Harris |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-08-07 02:08 PM |
#23 |
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TIA: Many words, no numbers.... |
caruso |
Feb-08-07 04:58 PM |
#24 |
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Clearly |
Febble |
Feb-09-07 03:09 AM |
#25 |
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ah, the wit and wisdom of TIA |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 06:30 AM |
#26 |
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Well, I didn't exactly miss it |
Febble |
Feb-09-07 07:16 AM |
#27 |
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sure, I'm just trying to skip the step where |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 07:46 AM |
#28 |
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Hardly likely |
BeFree |
Feb-09-07 02:11 PM |
#31 |
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well... |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 02:34 PM |
#32 |
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TIA: Not 10%, it was 8% Check the NEP time line |
caruso |
Feb-09-07 03:50 PM |
#33 |
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Here's an interesting analysis, |
Febble |
Feb-09-07 04:00 PM |
#34 |
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well, I think they are both wrong |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 04:27 PM |
#35 |
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Bad numbers? |
BeFree |
Feb-09-07 05:34 PM |
#38 |
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you might try actually reading the paper |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 05:42 PM |
#40 |
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But your evidence |
BeFree |
Feb-09-07 05:54 PM |
#41 |
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as I said, you might try reading the paper |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 05:57 PM |
#42 |
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Your paper? |
BeFree |
Feb-09-07 06:31 PM |
#45 |
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you can't intelligently criticize an argument you won't read |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 07:00 PM |
#46 |
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Faith based?That's a laugh. |
BeFree |
Feb-09-07 05:08 PM |
#36 |
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actually not |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 05:23 PM |
#37 |
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I edited that post |
BeFree |
Feb-09-07 05:41 PM |
#39 |
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why? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 06:05 PM |
#43 |
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My basis is as good as your's, even better |
BeFree |
Feb-09-07 06:27 PM |
#44 |
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of course I will "quibble" about that |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-09-07 07:01 PM |
#47 |
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TIA: Historical NEP data you are probably unaware of |
caruso |
Feb-09-07 09:55 AM |
#29 |
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OK |
Febble |
Feb-09-07 12:46 PM |
#30 |
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TIA Fact Refresher: 1) 2000/2004 recorded vote, 2) mortality, 3) 2000 voter turnout in 2004 |
caruso |
Feb-09-07 10:58 PM |
#48 |
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Weights.... |
Febble |
Feb-10-07 04:18 AM |
#49 |
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TIA: Still not clear to you? OK, let's try again. |
caruso |
Feb-10-07 07:52 AM |
#51 |
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OK |
Febble |
Feb-10-07 09:27 AM |
#53 |
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one thing back on point 8 |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-10-07 11:03 AM |
#57 |
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Ah, thanks |
Febble |
Feb-10-07 11:21 AM |
#58 |
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TIA: The "false recall" explanation for Voted2k weights is moot; focus on the vote share scenarios |
caruso |
Feb-10-07 03:29 PM |
#59 |
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bullshit, TIA, I call bullshit |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-10-07 04:04 PM |
#60 |
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TIA: So you believe that Bush's 48.5% rating is consonant with a 14.6% Gore defection to Bush? |
caruso |
Feb-10-07 06:10 PM |
#62 |
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oh, brother |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-10-07 09:14 PM |
#63 |
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TIA: So if its not a mathematical impossibility, that makes it plausible? |
caruso |
Feb-10-07 11:04 PM |
#64 |
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Caruso, one question |
kster |
Feb-11-07 01:46 AM |
#70 |
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As you never consider a single point |
Febble |
Feb-11-07 02:31 AM |
#71 |
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You. Have. Nothing. |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-11-07 08:06 AM |
#74 |
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TIA: Is this your rationale of why 15% of Gore voters defected? |
caruso |
Feb-11-07 08:23 AM |
#75 |
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In other words |
Febble |
Feb-11-07 09:04 AM |
#76 |
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TIA: You have it exactly back-wards |
caruso |
Feb-11-07 10:13 AM |
#77 |
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TIA: |
Febble |
Feb-11-07 12:08 PM |
#79 |
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TIA: I never said "no Gore voter would have voted for Bush" |
caruso |
Feb-11-07 12:18 PM |
#80 |
| -
OK, rephrase |
Febble |
Feb-11-07 12:32 PM |
#81 |
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your actual argument is even worse |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-11-07 01:06 PM |
#85 |
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as usual, you did not respond to the substance of my post |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-11-07 12:43 PM |
#82 |
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while arguing with a banned DU'er, a crises is ignored |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-11-07 12:58 AM |
#66 |
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in self-defense |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-11-07 12:52 PM |
#83 |
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Let me put in a good word for my friend too |
Febble |
Feb-11-07 01:02 PM |
#84 |
| -
sigh.... |
Febble |
Feb-10-07 04:21 PM |
#61 |
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And just so's you don't miss it.... |
Febble |
Feb-10-07 10:08 AM |
#55 |
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TIA, you are still multiplying irrelevancies |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-10-07 05:13 AM |
#50 |
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why misreporting of past votes matters |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-10-07 09:08 AM |
#52 |
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Thanks - another possibility |
Febble |
Feb-10-07 09:48 AM |
#54 |
| -
certainly -- I was just trying to make it as simple as possible |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-10-07 10:58 AM |
#56 |
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TIA: That's a very weak example. Unrealistic. |
caruso |
Feb-11-07 06:18 PM |
#86 |
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you sure are predictable, TIA |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-11-07 07:00 PM |
#87 |
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TIA: Where did Bush find 20 million new votes? |
caruso |
Feb-12-07 09:50 AM |
#90 |
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caruso: |
Febble |
Feb-12-07 10:16 AM |
#91 |
| -
he did not need "major voter blocs" |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-12-07 11:07 AM |
#93 |
| -
Here's a toy model for TIA to play with |
Febble |
Feb-12-07 05:27 PM |
#96 |
| -
And if you want to respond.... |
Febble |
Feb-13-07 11:42 AM |
#98 |
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TIA: If you can say 15% Gore voters defected to Bush, I can say 15% of Bush voters defected to Kerry |
caruso |
Feb-12-07 08:25 AM |
#88 |
| -
OK, your sensitivity analysis finally acknowledges |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-12-07 11:10 AM |
#94 |
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"Cooliers caught the networks simply making up the exit poll numbers" |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-11-07 01:15 AM |
#69 |
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Well, for a start |
Febble |
Feb-11-07 02:45 AM |
#72 |
| -
Yes! |
BeFree |
Feb-18-07 10:36 AM |
#102 |
| -
Lynn Landes: Exit Poll Madness |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-11-07 01:04 AM |
#67 |
| -
No mention of 'secret' (unaired) preliminary polls & publicized ('forced') Final "poll" -- useless. |
tiptoe |
Aug-30-07 11:55 PM |
#162 |
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"belief in exit polls is a trap that's had tragic consequences ....." |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-11-07 01:11 AM |
#68 |
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TIA: Landes is saying your vote will NOT be counted; Zogby pre-election state polls |
caruso |
Feb-11-07 07:26 AM |
#73 |
| -
Descriptive statistics vs. inferential statistics = NO MOE vs. MOE |
L. Coyote |
Feb-12-07 09:19 AM |
#89 |
| -
TIA: The inferential national 7.3% vote-switch rate confirms your descriptive Ohio 6.15% rate. |
caruso |
Feb-12-07 10:56 AM |
#92 |
| -
If only it were that simple OR since every vote counts |
L. Coyote |
Feb-12-07 04:36 PM |
#95 |
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Hand Counted Paper Ballots NOW! Nothing more and Nothing less! |
In Truth We Trust |
Feb-13-07 10:15 AM |
#97 |
| -
Thank you for your persistence. |
bleever |
Feb-24-07 05:37 PM |
#121 |
| -
I haven't seen that. |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-25-07 09:36 PM |
#122 |
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It's Land Shark's poll |
Febble |
Feb-26-07 02:39 AM |
#123 |
| -
well, maybe -- maybe it's something else? on a substantive note... |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-26-07 07:38 AM |
#124 |
| -
No, |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-26-07 10:25 AM |
#126 |
| -
factual inaccuracy on a TIA thread?! |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-26-07 11:09 AM |
#127 |
| -
"spinning the dickens out of public opinion" |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-26-07 12:11 PM |
#128 |
| -
Well it's very difficult to interpret the poll at all |
Febble |
Feb-26-07 12:15 PM |
#129 |
| -
That's the problem. |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-26-07 01:42 PM |
#130 |
| -
I couldn't agree more. |
Febble |
Feb-26-07 03:00 PM |
#131 |
| -
Egads |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-26-07 08:59 AM |
#125 |
| -
KICK.nt |
kster |
Jul-17-08 11:13 PM |
#193 |
| -
The dynamic changes from cycle to cycle |
Awsi Dooger |
Feb-13-07 06:45 PM |
#99 |
| -
Why WAS TIA banned? Why is TIA allowed to use Sock Puppets? |
WillYourVoteBCounted |
Feb-19-07 01:28 AM |
#105 |
| -
I think it's a tough call for the mods |
OnTheOtherHand |
Feb-19-07 07:12 AM |
#108 |
| -
I agree |
troubleinwinter |
Feb-19-07 01:41 PM |
#117 |
| -
Kickin 'cuz I heard rumors of a March 14th update |
Melissa G |
Mar-14-07 09:35 PM |
#132 |
| -
This is a graduate course in Election Fraud Analytics |
glengarry |
Apr-12-07 12:00 AM |
#133 |
| -
Ahh...memories. |
Kurovski |
Apr-12-07 04:03 AM |
#134 |
| -
Hi Kurovski, Always nice to see your lovely sig |
Melissa G |
Apr-12-07 10:14 AM |
#135 |
| -
Your sig is even better! |
Kurovski |
Apr-12-07 12:15 PM |
#137 |
| -
Thanks |
TEDIUM |
Apr-12-07 11:09 AM |
#136 |
| -
Kick. (nt) |
Kurovski |
Apr-13-07 10:23 AM |
#138 |
| -
So here you are! Kick |
autorank |
Apr-14-07 11:12 PM |
#139 |
| -
Thanks for keeping this out there bleever. |
Stevepol |
Apr-21-07 04:39 PM |
#141 |
| -
Kick. |
Kurovski |
Jun-06-07 08:22 PM |
#144 |
| -
Kick. (nt) |
Kurovski |
Jun-07-07 02:37 AM |
#145 |
| -
It's interesting to note individuals who decry others publicly interpreting |
Kurovski |
Jun-07-07 05:34 PM |
#146 |
| -
Hi to Bleever and those that follow this work... |
Melissa G |
Jun-25-07 11:21 AM |
#147 |
| -
There has been an update posted to the TIA FAQ |
Melissa G |
Jul-16-07 10:00 AM |
#148 |
| -
"The Democrats actually won all FIVE elections by an average 8.9 M...Run the numbers yourself..." |
tiptoe |
Jul-16-07 03:46 PM |
#149 |
| -
Wow 9080 views! and there has been a recent update also. |
Melissa G |
Aug-05-07 09:16 PM |
#150 |
| -
There has been an update posted with Urban Legend discussion impact |
Melissa G |
Aug-23-07 04:07 PM |
#151 |
| -
well, I do appreciate the repeated promotion |
OnTheOtherHand |
Aug-23-07 04:50 PM |
#152 |
| -
Refute this. |
althecat |
Aug-24-07 01:56 AM |
#155 |
| -
so you never read the FAQ either |
OnTheOtherHand |
Aug-24-07 08:13 AM |
#157 |
| -
I trust expressing yourself on the subject has made you feel better..... |
althecat |
Aug-25-07 09:24 PM |
#158 |
| -
I accept your concession n/t |
OnTheOtherHand |
Aug-25-07 09:36 PM |
#159 |
| -
Here is althecat's research thread post that addresses this |
Melissa G |
Aug-23-07 09:35 PM |
#153 |
| -
Aha... 10,000 views not far away now... |
althecat |
Aug-24-07 01:41 AM |
#154 |
| -
17 more views.... |
althecat |
Aug-24-07 04:53 AM |
#156 |
| -
Nice to see this drop around again |
galloglas |
Aug-25-07 10:15 PM |
#160 |
| -
kick for Gonzo resignation! |
tiptoe |
Aug-28-07 12:56 AM |
#161 |
| -
k |
tiptoe |
Nov-25-07 04:36 PM |
#172 |
| -
Significant correlation between the state exit polls and the 5m late recorded votes: |
tiptoe |
Oct-09-07 06:48 PM |
#164 |
| -
TIA always did have a way with plots |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-09-07 08:02 PM |
#165 |
| -
Updated Oct 26: The 2000 Election... |
tiptoe |
Oct-27-07 08:54 AM |
#166 |
| -
Updated Nov 2: Election Fraud Analysis: Bush Approval Ratings |
tiptoe |
Nov-03-07 12:32 PM |
#167 |
| -
nope |
OnTheOtherHand |
Nov-03-07 02:28 PM |
#168 |
| -
chart |
tiptoe |
Nov-04-07 11:00 AM |
#169 |
| -
Doesn't help |
Febble |
Nov-04-07 06:35 PM |
#170 |
| -
Updated |
tiptoe |
Nov-22-07 03:15 AM |
#171 |
| -
Corrections for section "State Exit Polls: Average Within Precinct Error..." |
tiptoe |
Nov-26-07 02:04 AM |
#173 |
| -
What the hell took so long!?! |
Wilms |
Nov-26-07 09:47 AM |
#174 |
| -
Tell us what matters, Mr. Wilms |
tiptoe |
Nov-29-07 04:48 AM |
#175 |
| -
For one, audits, as I mentioned. |
Wilms |
Nov-29-07 05:25 AM |
#176 |
| -
Alright, just one... |
tiptoe |
Nov-30-07 04:18 AM |
#177 |
| -
Thanks for taking the time to post all of that. |
Wilms |
Nov-30-07 10:51 PM |
#178 |
| -
really? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Dec-01-07 09:42 AM |
#179 |
| -
When Decided: Further confirmation of a Kerry landslide |
tiptoe |
Dec-12-07 04:58 AM |
#180 |
| -
I wish he would get the facts right |
OnTheOtherHand |
Dec-12-07 06:36 AM |
#181 |
| -
Updated: Conservative Scenarios Analysis |
tiptoe |
Jan-06-08 01:27 PM |
#182 |
| -
Final Exit Polls: Adjusted to Match the Recorded Vote |
tiptoe |
Jan-18-08 12:57 AM |
#183 |
| -
k. |
tiptoe |
Apr-26-08 08:47 AM |
#186 |
| -
Since Corporate Media is Sitting on Election Fraud . . . HOW DO WE GET IT OUT THERE!!?? |
BillDouglas |
Jan-18-08 04:14 PM |
#184 |
| -
Gallup assigned 90% of the undecided vote to Kerry. |
tiptoe |
Mar-07-08 04:54 PM |
#185 |
| -
2004 Election Model: Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model Tables -- TruthIsAll |
tiptoe |
Jul-16-08 10:29 PM |
#192 |
| -
kick! |
tiptoe |
Oct-12-10 08:07 AM |
#194 |
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