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Reply #64: TIA: So if its not a mathematical impossibility, that makes it plausible? [View All]

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caruso Donating Member (48 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-10-07 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #63
64. TIA: So if its not a mathematical impossibility, that makes it plausible?
Edited on Sat Feb-10-07 11:56 PM by caruso
It wasn't just your 14.6% Bush share of returning Gore voters
which was implausible.

In order to comply with the rules of the game (to use
mathematically feasible weights) you finally presented a
spreadsheet in which you hypothesized how Bush achieved his 3
million vote mandate. 

Your calculation of the weights was based on 1) the recorded
2000 and 2004 vote, 2) the annual 0.87% mortality rate and 3)
an estimated 2000 voter turnout of 95% in 2004. So far, so
good. 

Unfortunately, although your weights were feasible, your
assumed vote shares were implausible. Since you agreed to use
feasible weights which had the effect of lowering the Bush
vote, you had no choice but to increase the already-inflated
Final NEP Bush vote shares to ridiculous levels in order to
match his recorded vote. 

Your implausible Bush win scenario was based on the following
assumptions:

1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in
2004. 
   The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final). 

2) Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who
did not vote in 2000).  
   The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final).  

3) Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry. 
   The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).

Which are we to believe: the implausible 14.63% vote share or
the impossible 43 Bush/37% Gore weights? The weights imply
that 3 million (7.5%)  Gore voters forgot or lied and told
the exit pollsters that they voted for Bush in 2000.  

Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on 
a) plausible 37.84 Gore/37.44% Bush weights (see the Lindeman
Game model) and an implausible 14.63% Gore voter defection
rate, or 

b) impossible 43 Bush/37% Gore weights (false recall) and a
plausible 8% defection rate? 

So now had to replace the already-debunked reluctant Bush
responder (rBr) hypothesis with a new one: Gore voter false
recall.  Your sole rationale: an NES post-election
600-sample NES survey taken a few years after the election. 

You based your argument on the NES survey rather than the
final pre-election state (30,000 respondents)polls, final 18
national polls (27000 respondents), the 51 state exit polls
(70,000 respondents), the 12:22am national exit poll (13047
respondents), the final 11 Bush approval polls (11000
respondents, 48.5%  average rating). And finally, the 2004
Election Census (60000 respondents) which indicated that 3.4
million (mostly Kerry) votes were uncounted.

But you contradicted yourself when you agreed that the
original weights were impossible; it's irrelevant whether
Gore 2000 voters forgot or lied to the exit pollsters when
they said they voted for Bush.  

What is relevant is who they said they voted for in 2004 -
and 91% said it was Kerry. The 2000 and 2004 recorded vote
and annual mortality rate are historical demographic facts.
They are necessary and sufficient to determine the MAXIMUM
number of Bush and Gore voters who could have voted in 2004.
We still need to estimate Bush and Gore 2000 voter turnout in
2004 to obtain plausible weights.
___________________________________________________________________________



My final pre-election state and national poll projections
matched the exits.
How did you do?

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#PreElectEXitActual
Note: 

Pre-election state-weightings were based on 1992-2000 average
vote turnout.

Recorded Vote
                Final NEP      Recorded        2-party     
               Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush
                47.78  51.22   48.28   50.73   48.76   51.24
                                                     
 
               Poll            Projection      (2-party)   
               Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush
PRE-ELECTION
75% UVA to Kerry                                             
       
National 18    47.17   46.89   50.88   48.12   51.63   48.37
State          47.88   46.89   51.05   47.95   51.80   48.20
Average        47.53   46.89   50.96   48.04   51.71   48.39
 
70% UVA                                                      
National 18    47.17   46.89   50.63   48.37   51.33   48.67
State          47.88   46.89   50.84   48.16   51.54   48.46
Average        47.53   46.89   50.73   48.27   51.43   48.57
 
EXIT POLL (12:22am)                                          
       
NEP Gender     50.78   48.22   50.78   48.22   51.29   48.71
NEP Voted2k    51.41   47.62   51.41   47.62   51.91   48.09
State(wtd)     49.76   48.76   50.01   48.99   50.51   49.49
Average        50.65   48.20   50.73   48.28   51.24   48.76
                                                     
 
EXIT POLL MODELS                                             
       
Resp Optimizer 51.65   47.35   51.65   47.35   52.17   47.83
NEP True Vote  52.56   46.43   52.56   46.43   53.10   46.90
Average        52.11   46.89   52.11   46.89   52.63   47.37

_________________________________________________________________________

State Pre-election Poll Trend

Note: Weighted mean based on 1992-2000 election average.

                7-Sep		7-Oct		1-Nov Final	
     	         Kerry Bush	       Kerry Bush	Kerry	Bush

Before UVA allocation:
Mean           43.94 47.65    46.84 46.86    45.70 47.60  
Wtd Mean       45.54 46.45    47.97 46.66    47.88 46.89     
             
2-party        49.50 50.50    50.67 49.33    50.52 49.48 

Projection (75% UVA to Kerry): 
2-party        51.54 48.46    51.99 48.01    51.80 48.20
Total          50.79 48.21    51.24 47.76    51.05 47.95

State	Date    Pollster	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush

AL	Oct 27	Survey USA	34	54	40	56	39	57
AK	Sep 11	ARG	        33	56	39	55	30	57
AZ	Oct 26	Rasmussen	42	45	47	50	45	50
AR	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	47	48	47	47	48	48
CA	Oct 27	Field Poll	50	42	51	43	49	42

CO	Oct 30	Zogby	        47	47	49	48	47	48
CT	Oct 28	Research2K	45	38	47	38	52	42
DE	Sep 25	W Chester U	55	42	45	38	45	38
DC	Sep 13	ARG	        86	9	78	11	78	11
FL	Oct 30	Zogby 	        44	48	50	48	50	47

GA	Oct 29	Zogby 	        38	55	42	53	42	52
HI	Oct 20	SMS Res	  48	41	51	41	45	45
ID	Sep 10	ARG	        25	55	30	59	30	59
IL	Oct 29	Survey USA	52	38	55	38	54	42
IN	Oct 29	Survey USA	40	52	40	53	39	58

IA	Oct 30	Zogby	        47	47	51	44	50	44
KS	Oct 27	Survey USA	36	56	35	57	37	60
KY	Oct 20	Bluegrass	39	56	38	53	39	56
LA	Oct 22	SE La. Univ	36	52	42	50	40	48
ME	Oct 21	Zogby 	        49	44	42	39	50	39

MD	Oct 29	Survey USA	53	42	48	45	54	43
MA	Oct  5	Merrimack	56	30	64	27	64	27
MI	Oct 30	Zogby 	       48	44	52	42	52	45
MN	Oct 30	Zogby 	       46	46	53	44	52	44
MS	Sep 17	ARG	       30	61	42	51	42	51

MO	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	45	49	49	50	44	49
MT	Oct 20	Mason-Dixon	33	53	36	54	36	57
NE	Oct 20	RKM Res	33	62	30	61	32	61
NV	Oct 29	Survey USA	48	46	48	47	49	49
NH	Oct 30	ARG	        51	43	51	44	47	47

NJ	Oct 29	Survey USA	50	46	50	45	50	42
NM	Oct 30	ARG		42     45	55	43	49	49
NY	Oct 28	Survey USA	56	37	53	41	57	39
NC	Oct 26	Mason-Dixon	45	51	47	50	47	50
ND	Oct 19	Minn St U	33	61	33	62	35	55

OH	Oct 30	Zogby	        42	48	48	47	50	47
OK	Oct 24	Wilson Res	38	57	29	52	28	61
OR	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	54	43	55	44	50	44
PA	Oct 30	Zogby	        46	47	52	46	50	45
RI	Oct 27	Survey USA	49	25	55	37	56	36

SC	Oct 24	Survey USA	42	53	37	55	42	55
SD	Oct 24	McLaughlin	40	54	40	52	42	52
TN	Oct 21	Mason-Dixon	50	48	48	50	48	50
TX	Oct 28	Survey USA	33	57	37	58	37	59
UT	Oct 28	Dan Jones	22	67	27	64	24	69

VT	Oct 12	Research2k	51	36	50	40	53	40
VA	Oct 29	Survey USA	45	49	47	50	47	51
WA	Oct 27	StratVision	48	43	54	44	52	44
WV	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	42	49	44	50	46	49
WI	Oct 30	Zogby	        49	45	51	48	51	44
WY	Sep 11	ARG	        28	68	29	65	29	65



 

_____________________________________________________________________


Can you explain what happened to the NEP between 12:22am and
the 1:25pm Final?

Kerry held a 51-48 edge from 8349 to 11027 to 13047
respondents. The only demographic weights which suddenly
changed in the Final were Party ID and... you guessed it,
Voted in 2000. How do you explain that? Why the change in
weights for just these two? 

Of course, ALL demographic vote shares were radically altered
in the Final to match the Bush recorded margin.


 National Exit Poll Demographic Time Line

< represents a one percent change from 12:22am to the
1:25pm Final. 
										

		3:59pm  7:33pm 12:22am 1:25pm  3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am 1:25pm
Respondents	8349	11027	13047	13660		 8349	 11027 13047 13660
										
		Category Weighting			Kerry Percentage		
GENDER										
Male 		42	46	46	46		47	47	47	44 <<<
Female 	58	54	54	54		53	54	54	51 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.48	50.78	50.78	47.78
VOTE (mm)						61.72	62.08	62.08	58.42
										
REGION										
East		23	22	22	22		58	58	58	56 <<
Midwest	25	26	26	26		50	50	50	48 <<
South		31	31	31	32		44	45	45	42 <<<
West		21	21	21	20		53	53	53	50 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.61	50.84	50.84	48.24
VOTE (mm)						61.88	62.16	62.16	58.98
										
PARTY ID										
Democrat 	39	38	38	37<		90	90	90	89 <
Repub 	      36	36	35	37<<		 7	7	7	 6 <
Indep 	      25	26	27	26<		52	52	52	49 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.62	50.24	50.69	47.89
VOTE (mm)						61.89	61.42	61.97	58.55

IDEOLOGY										
Liberal 	22	22	22	21 <		86	87	86	85 <
Moderate 	45	45	45	45		58	57	57	54 <<<
Conserv	33	33	33	34 <		16	16	16	15 <
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.3	50.07	49.85	47.25
VOTE (mm)						61.50	61.22	60.95	57.77
										
VOTED IN 2000										
DNV         15	17	17	17		62	59	57	54 <<<
Gore		39	38	39	37<<		91	91	91	90 <
Bush		42	41	41	43<<		 9	 9	10	 9 <
Other		 4	 4	 3	 3		61	65	71	71
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.01	50.9	51.41	48.48
VOTE (mm)						62.36	62.23	62.85	59.27
										
WHEN DECIDED										
Today       6 	 6	 6	 5		52	54	53	52 <
Last 3Days 	 3	 3	 3	 4		50	54	53	55 >>
Last Week 	 2	 2	 2	 2		48	48	48	48
Last Month  10	10	10	10		61	61	60	54
<<<<<<<
Over30Days 	79	79	79	79		50	50	50	46 <<<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.18	51.42	51.23	47.5
VOTE (mm)						62.57	62.87	62.63	58.07
										
EDUCATION										
No HS		 4	 4	 4	 4		50	52	52	50 <<
HS Grad 	22	22	22	22		50	51	51	47 <<<<
College 	30	31	31	32 <		48	47	47	46 <
Grad		26	26	26	26		48	49	48	46 <<
Post Grad 	18	17	17	16 <		58	58	58	55 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.32	50.34	50.21	47.82
VOTE (mm)						61.52	61.55	61.39	58.46
										
RACE										
WM		33	36	36	36		40	41	41	37 <<<<
WF		44	41	41	41		47	47	47	44 <<<
NWM		10	10	10	10		69	70	69	67 <<
NWF		13	13	13	13		77	77	77	75 <<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.79	51.04	50.94	47.81
VOTE (mm)						62.10	62.40	62.28	58.45
										
AGE										
18-29 	      15	17	17	17		56	56	56	54 <<
30-44 	      27	27	27	29<<		48	49	49	46 <<<
45-59 	      31	30	30	30		52	51	51	48 <<<
60+		27	26	26	24<<		48	48	48	46 <<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.44	50.53	50.53	47.96
VOTE (mm)						61.67	61.78	61.78	58.64
										
INCOME										
0-15	       9	 9	 9	 8 <		68	66	66	63 <<<
15-30 	      15	15	15	15		59	59	59	57 <<
30-50 	      22	22	22	22		53	52	52	50 <<
50-75 	      22	23	23	23		46	45	45	43 <<
75-100 	 14	13	13	14 <		49	49	49	45 <<<<
100-150 	 11	11	11	11		44	45	45	42 <<<
150-200 	  4	 4	 4	 4		45	47	47	42 <<<<<
200+ 	        3 	 3	 3	 3		40	41	41	35
<<<<<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.45	51.01	51.01	48.13
VOTE (mm)						62.90	62.36	62.36	58.84

RELIGION										
Protestant	53	53	53	53		43	43	43	40 <<<
Catholic 	27	27	27	27		50	50	50	47 <<<
Jewish	       3	 3	 3	 3		77	77	77	74 <<<
Other 	       7	 7	 7	 7		76	75	75	74 <
None 		10	10	10	10		69	70	70	67 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.82	50.85	50.85	47.99
VOTE (mm)						62.13	62.17	62.17	58.67
										
MILITARY										
In Military	18	18	18	18		43	43	43	41 <<
No Military	82	82	82	82		52	53	53	50 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.38	51.2	51.2	48.38
VOTE (mm)						61.59	62.60	62.60	59.15
				
_____________________________________________________________________


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