Reply #33: TIA: Not 10%, it was 8% Check the NEP time line

[caruso]

You are misquoting. In fact, 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush at each time line up to the Final NEP, where it was changed to 10% in order to match the final vote miscount. You might want to check the National Exit Poll Time line.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#_The_National_Exit_1

My analysis includes the bogus Final NEP for reference purposes. You stretched the Final NEP vote shares to match the Bush vote because you had no choice; you had to comply with the rules of the "game"- the mathematical requirement of feasible weights.

Your implausible scenario was based on some very TORTURED assumptions. It represents EXIT POLL FUNDAMENTALISM at its worst.

ACCORDING TO YOU AND NO ONE ELSE:

1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.
The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).

2) Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000).
The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final).

3) Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.
The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).

Your "Game" thread spread sheet "analysis" was truly an act of DESPERATION. There was NO WAY you could provide a PLAUSIBLE rationale for it. However, it did serve one purpose: it proved to any reasonable observer that you had no case. So you're going to have to live with it. And we will never stop bringing it up.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#_The_Democratic_Underground_1