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Reply #24: TIA: Many words, no numbers.... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
caruso Donating Member (48 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-08-07 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. TIA: Many words, no numbers....
This is the Harris link.
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris%5Fpoll/index.as...

FEBBLE:
There are only two reasons why there should be an discrepancy between an exit poll and the count:
-the votes were miscounted in favor of one candidate (i.e Bush, over all in 2004)

-voters for one candidate participated in the poll at a higher rate than voters for the other (i.e. voters for Kerry, overall, in 2004).

Frankly, I suspect some of both, but the evidence strongly supports (2), only weakly supports (1), and actually contra-indicates (1) by DREs, or on a scale of millions. So that leaves (2). Why Kerry voters should have participated at a higher rate than Bush voters cannot, of course be determined. However, there is strong evidence that they did so.

TIA:

Once again, you have AVOIDED the core issue.

We KNOW how many votes were recorded for Bush in 2000 (50.46mm)
We KNOW how many votes were recorded for Bush in 2004 (62.04mm)
We KNOW how many votes were recorded in 2004 (122.3mm)
We KNOW that approximately 1.76mm (3.50% of 50.46mm) Bush 2000 voters died prior to 2004.

Therefore,
We KNOW that approximately 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters were still alive in 2004.

We can ESTIMATE that 95% (or 46.27mm) of Bush voters STILL ALIVE came to vote in 2004.

NOTICE I HAVE SAID NOTHING ABOUT EXIT POLL RESPONSE OR FALSE RECALL.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTS, WHERE DID BUSH GET 15.7MM NEW VOTERS?

PLEASE ANSWER THE QUESTION, JUST ANSWER THE QUESTION.
PROVIDE US WITH NUMBERS, NOT WORDS.
YOU ARE A SCIENTIST, AREN'T YOU?
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