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TruthIsAll/Autorank: Virginia & Montana Explained - Fraud Model Works [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-09-06 11:58 AM
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TruthIsAll/Autorank: Virginia & Montana Explained - Fraud Model Works
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Edited on Thu Nov-09-06 12:00 PM by autorank
WONDERING WHAT HAPPENED IN VIRGINIA AND MONTANA. SEE THE
SUMMARY TABLE BELOW FOR SENATE EXIT POLLS. Our candidates
kicked ass and as per the 7:00 pm Exit Polls, they were
leading substantially.  This is confirmation that we had a
great year and reason to look very clsely at the final
outocme for these two races.  This is part of an effort begun
prior to the election to target high fraud-likely races (see
msg 1 below).  There will be a post later today on the overal
model and what it has to offer for those 13 "undecided
races."

==================================
TruthIsAll:

Which senate races deviated the most from the 
pre-election and 7pm exit poll to the recorded vote? 

Virginia and Montana, the elections which were
"too close to call" for hours after the polls
closed.

Here are the probabilities:
Dev: Discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit poll
vote share and the recorded vote share.
Prob: Probability of discrepancy

.. Dev Prob
MT 4% 1.61e-04 or 1 in 6,196 
VA 3% 3.37e-03 or 1 in 297 

As usual, the Final Exit Poll was MATCHED to the RECORDED
vote.

Please don't ask WHY. 
It's par for the course.
Edison-Mitofsky always assume ZERO fraud.
Remember 2004? It's deja vu all over again.

Only this time, everyone was watching.

So which exit poll do you believe, the 7pm or the Final?

	Pre-elect	2-ptyProj	7pmExit	         FinalExit	FinalVote	
Avg	46.4	45.6	52.5	47.5	53.0	45.9	52.5	46.4	52.3	46.5
	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP
MT	48.0	47.0	51.0	49.0	53	46	50.0	47.5	49	48
MO*	47.8	46.2	51.4	48.6	50	48	48.8	47.7	50	47
OH	51.0	43.3	54.4	45.6	57	43	56.0	44.0	56	44
PA	52.3	40.8	56.4	43.6	57	42	59.0	41.0	59	41

RI	48.3	40.5	55.0	45.0	53	46	53.8	46.2	53	47
TN	43.0	51.5	46.3	53.7	48	51	48.1	50.9	48	51
VA*	46.4	45.8	51.1	48.9	53	46	50.1	49.9	50	49
NJ	48.0	42.0	54.0	46.0	53	45	54.2	43.9	53	45

Dev1: Discrepancy from the 7pm Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev2: Discrepancy from the Final Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev3: Dev2-Dev1
Prob: Probability of discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit
poll
vote share and the recorded vote.



	Dev1	Dev2	Dev3	MoE	>MoE	Prob	       1 in
MT*	6.0	1.5	-4.5	2.18%	yes	1.61E-04	6,196
MO	-1.0	-1.9	-0.9	1.92%		5.00E-01	2
OH	2.0	0.0	-2.0	2.04%		1.68E-01	6
PA	-3.0	0.0	3.0	1.97%		9.77E-01	1

RI	1.0	1.6	0.6	2.86%		5.00E-01	2
TN	0.0	0.2	0.2	1.95%		5.00E-01	2
VA*	6.0	-0.8	-6.8	2.17%	yes	3.37E-03	297
NJ	0.0	2.3	2.3	2.18%		5.00E-01	2

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  -TruthIsAll/Autorank: Virginia & Montana Explained - Fraud Model Works autorank  Nov-09-06 11:58 AM   #0 
  - TruthIsAll Vote Fraud Model  autorank   Nov-09-06 11:59 AM   #1 
  - Check out IL 06...  AtLiberty   Nov-09-06 04:16 PM   #11 
  - Fascinating. They wanted to cheat, they tried to cheat, but they couldn't get away with it quite so  MADem   Nov-09-06 11:59 AM   #2 
  - Still trying after al these years!!!  autorank   Nov-09-06 12:03 PM   #3 
  - we had enough independant turnout to break the system  whrab   Nov-09-06 04:01 PM   #10 
     - I hope you don't have to expect it in 2008. I mean I hope they get  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Nov-10-06 09:41 AM   #28 
  - What time zone is that referring to? n/t  cui bono   Nov-09-06 12:07 PM   #4 
  - 7:00 pm - close of polls in each state. It's local time 7:00 pm.  autorank   Nov-10-06 03:11 AM   #24 
  - 1st rec  stellanoir   Nov-09-06 12:09 PM   #5 
  - Yeah, I thought about the model while watching the VA election on T.V.  Boo Boo   Nov-09-06 12:16 PM   #6 
  - I was thinking about it too...  autorank   Nov-09-06 12:46 PM   #7 
  - Come on, Virginia doesn't vote 46% Republican in a federal race  Awsi Dooger   Nov-11-06 02:59 AM   #36 
  - Bingo!  BillORightsMan   Nov-09-06 08:39 PM   #14 
     - His "advisor" (read - legal councel) told him to concede,  mcg   Nov-10-06 07:24 AM   #27 
  - I looked at all of the early exit polls released on Tues  Zodiak Ironfist   Nov-09-06 12:53 PM   #8 
  - Thanks for keeping informed, an honor to provide the information  autorank   Nov-10-06 03:05 AM   #20 
  - See my post 26  Febble   Nov-11-06 05:23 AM   #39 
  - K&R EXCELLENT PRECISE RESEARCH AUTO! EXACTLY WHAT I'VE COME TO EXPECT FROM YOU!  Jeffersons Ghost   Nov-09-06 01:14 PM   #9 
  - OK, the Virginia exit poll number is wrong  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-11-06 08:47 AM   #41 
  - Another Excellent Analysis K&R  Gelliebeans   Nov-09-06 04:24 PM   #12 
  - Math doesn't lie.  file83   Nov-09-06 08:31 PM   #13 
  - "...something 'unnatural' occurred." Perfect.!!! n/t  autorank   Nov-10-06 03:07 AM   #21 
  - But it can be selective  Febble   Nov-10-06 07:22 AM   #26 
     - Those dirty cornhuskers  Awsi Dooger   Nov-11-06 04:07 AM   #37 
     - Well, it's a small number of races  Febble   Nov-11-06 05:22 AM   #38 
     - I've been busy with FL-13  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-11-06 09:09 AM   #42 
     - You beat me to it - great post - the fact that the GOP stuffed ballot boxes in  papau   Nov-11-06 07:14 AM   #40 
  - sneak one here, sneak one there, but in the end  msedano   Nov-09-06 09:04 PM   #15 
  - Hey buddy, nice work out there except for you know who..  autorank   Nov-10-06 03:09 AM   #22 
  - Hey buddy, nice work out there except for you know who..  autorank   Nov-10-06 03:09 AM   #23 
     - no i.d. required around here  msedano   Nov-11-06 12:51 AM   #35 
  - It'd be great if congress held hearings on these statistical anomalies. nt  JudyM   Nov-09-06 11:15 PM   #16 
  - I have confidence that CHAIRMAN Conyers will do so.  autorank   Nov-10-06 02:59 AM   #18 
     - I will enjoy that  rosesaylavee   Nov-10-06 06:35 AM   #25 
  - I would really like to see a district by district breakdown comparing  w4rma   Nov-10-06 01:37 AM   #17 
  - Here's a landmark study for you from none other than Land Shark  autorank   Nov-10-06 03:02 AM   #19 
     - A related document prepared by a couple of DUers ...  understandinglife   Nov-10-06 10:36 AM   #29 
        - I'm about to link ALL this info back onto the Greatest page...  Jeffersons Ghost   Nov-10-06 10:41 AM   #30 
           - Thank you.  understandinglife   Nov-10-06 02:52 PM   #34 
  - Wow! This is fascinating.  janetle   Nov-10-06 11:08 AM   #31 
  - K&R Hand Counted Paper Ballots NOW!!! InTuthisall We Trust AutoRank Rocks, Landshark Rules!  In Truth We Trust   Nov-10-06 11:19 AM   #32 
  - Thanks for posting this!  mom cat   Nov-10-06 11:25 AM   #33 
 

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