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TruthIsAll/Autorank: Virginia & Montana Explained - Fraud Model Works [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-09-06 12:58 PM
Original message
TruthIsAll/Autorank: Virginia & Montana Explained - Fraud Model Works
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Edited on Thu Nov-09-06 01:00 PM by autorank
WONDERING WHAT HAPPENED IN VIRGINIA AND MONTANA. SEE THE
SUMMARY TABLE BELOW FOR SENATE EXIT POLLS. Our candidates
kicked ass and as per the 7:00 pm Exit Polls, they were
leading substantially.  This is confirmation that we had a
great year and reason to look very clsely at the final
outocme for these two races.  This is part of an effort begun
prior to the election to target high fraud-likely races (see
msg 1 below).  There will be a post later today on the overal
model and what it has to offer for those 13 "undecided
races."

==================================
TruthIsAll:

Which senate races deviated the most from the 
pre-election and 7pm exit poll to the recorded vote? 

Virginia and Montana, the elections which were
"too close to call" for hours after the polls
closed.

Here are the probabilities:
Dev: Discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit poll
vote share and the recorded vote share.
Prob: Probability of discrepancy

.. Dev Prob
MT 4% 1.61e-04 or 1 in 6,196 
VA 3% 3.37e-03 or 1 in 297 

As usual, the Final Exit Poll was MATCHED to the RECORDED
vote.

Please don't ask WHY. 
It's par for the course.
Edison-Mitofsky always assume ZERO fraud.
Remember 2004? It's deja vu all over again.

Only this time, everyone was watching.

So which exit poll do you believe, the 7pm or the Final?

	Pre-elect	2-ptyProj	7pmExit	         FinalExit	FinalVote	
Avg	46.4	45.6	52.5	47.5	53.0	45.9	52.5	46.4	52.3	46.5
	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP
MT	48.0	47.0	51.0	49.0	53	46	50.0	47.5	49	48
MO*	47.8	46.2	51.4	48.6	50	48	48.8	47.7	50	47
OH	51.0	43.3	54.4	45.6	57	43	56.0	44.0	56	44
PA	52.3	40.8	56.4	43.6	57	42	59.0	41.0	59	41

RI	48.3	40.5	55.0	45.0	53	46	53.8	46.2	53	47
TN	43.0	51.5	46.3	53.7	48	51	48.1	50.9	48	51
VA*	46.4	45.8	51.1	48.9	53	46	50.1	49.9	50	49
NJ	48.0	42.0	54.0	46.0	53	45	54.2	43.9	53	45

Dev1: Discrepancy from the 7pm Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev2: Discrepancy from the Final Exit Poll to the vote.
Dev3: Dev2-Dev1
Prob: Probability of discrepancy between Democratic 7pm Exit
poll
vote share and the recorded vote.



	Dev1	Dev2	Dev3	MoE	>MoE	Prob	       1 in
MT*	6.0	1.5	-4.5	2.18%	yes	1.61E-04	6,196
MO	-1.0	-1.9	-0.9	1.92%		5.00E-01	2
OH	2.0	0.0	-2.0	2.04%		1.68E-01	6
PA	-3.0	0.0	3.0	1.97%		9.77E-01	1

RI	1.0	1.6	0.6	2.86%		5.00E-01	2
TN	0.0	0.2	0.2	1.95%		5.00E-01	2
VA*	6.0	-0.8	-6.8	2.17%	yes	3.37E-03	297
NJ	0.0	2.3	2.3	2.18%		5.00E-01	2

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