Reply #41: Nope

[Febble]

not overlooked, and yes, exit polls were conducted at punchcard precincts in Ohio.

Punchcards and lever machine precincts, nationally, had higher discrepancies than DREs or optical scanners, when urban areas were compared. But there isn't enough statistical power to find small effects at state level. So if punchcard problems affected the exit poll in Ohio, the effect size was too small to be statistically detectable with the small amount of statistical power available.

But that's not saying much. As I said, 49 precincts can't tell you much except that the discrepancy wasn't due to chance, and that it wasn't correlated with advantage to Bush. And as it wasn't correlated with advantage to Bush nationally either, and WAS correlated with factors likely to make selection bias more likely, it seems at least reasonable to conclude that the exit poll data doesn't support the fraud narrative.

Which is not to say that Ohio wasn't stolen. Or that Kerry wouldn't have won it on a level playing field.

BTW I hugely appreciate the fact that you have actually read my review. I am perfectly ready to debate it.