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Reply #40: Well, he's done it in writing [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. Well, he's done it in writing
that's what my review was of.

It's here:

No, the 49 precincts are not officially identified (which is rather the point of the confidentiality issue), although at least one was identified by DUers, and is discussed by Mark Lindeman on page 10 of his paper here:

However, in their evaluation exercise, Edison-Mitofsky gathered a large amount of information about each precinct, and while there is very little statistical power at state level, it did enable some inferences to be drawn at a nationwide level. Unfortunately, their report does not give statistical details, and in any case I think they did it wrong. Which was why (to cut a long story short) I ended up being contracted to analyse it again.

But, as I said, that analysis can tell us very little at state level, as there are so few precincts per state. What is interesting, however, from the state level data, is that redshift was greatest in the bluest states, which seems to be a general tendency, at least in the five years given in the E-M report. And when you plot a regression line through the states in 2004, Ohio is not far from the regression line. So there is no particular reason to suppose it bucked a nationwide trend. Which may mean that the nationwide trends can tell us something about Ohio.

But what the nationwide data show is that there is, as in Ohio, no tendency for redshift to be correlated with advantage to Bush. And there is a strong tendency for redshift to be associated with factors likely to make any underlying differential response tendency manifest (i.e. greater opportunities for selection bias to creep in).

There's other stuff too.

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  - Direct Material Proof of Massive Election Fraud in Ohio in 2004 RonB  Jul-23-06 08:51 PM   #0 
  - Rank and KICK!!!  NVMojo   Jul-23-06 08:55 PM   #1 
  - What? How do you figure? nt  iconoclastic cat   Jul-23-06 08:58 PM   #4 
  - Ron Baiman is a national treasure, but that's just my opinion and I  autorank   Jul-27-06 02:44 AM   #101 
  - The link to the powerpoint is dead. nt  iconoclastic cat   Jul-23-06 08:57 PM   #2 
  - Thank you. This might be locked, then moved to GD or  alfredo   Jul-23-06 08:57 PM   #3 
  - k&r for clean elections, without them we are screwed.  uppityperson   Jul-23-06 08:58 PM   #5 
  - Ron, having trouble with the Powerpoint link:" not found"  Kip Humphrey   Jul-23-06 08:59 PM   #6 
  - And yet everyone here is kicking and recommending.  iconoclastic cat   Jul-23-06 09:02 PM   #7 
     - Same here.  drm604   Jul-23-06 09:55 PM   #16 
     - I had no problem downloading it K&R n/t  Land Shark   Jul-25-06 01:30 AM   #60 
  - Ron, I trust that you are in touch with  bleever   Jul-23-06 09:05 PM   #8 
  - I can't get to the Powerpoint... (n/t)  IndyOp   Jul-23-06 09:06 PM   #9 
  - Ron comments on his blog post to download the link  bear425   Jul-23-06 09:08 PM   #11 
     - PowerPoint viewer is a free MS download. LINK only n/t  L. Coyote   Jul-23-06 09:25 PM   #13 
        - Hey, thank you very much. That was nice of you. n/t  bear425   Jul-24-06 08:58 AM   #24 
  - Caution: New Powerpoint Virus  Nictuku   Jul-23-06 09:08 PM   #10 
  - if it's stored on yahoo there may be traffic problems  Donnachaidh   Jul-23-06 09:08 PM   #12 
  - K&R  Patsy Stone   Jul-23-06 09:44 PM   #14 
  - Ron, your link appears to be bad.  drm604   Jul-23-06 09:52 PM   #15 
  - I changed the link.  RonB   Jul-23-06 10:41 PM   #17 
     - Glad to see you back, Ron! Thanks for posting! K&R! n/t  Melissa G   Jul-23-06 10:50 PM   #18 
     - Works for me!  go west young man   Jul-24-06 07:49 AM   #22 
     - Why don't you  Febble   Jul-24-06 04:45 PM   #43 
  - Ohio Supreme Court Vote Anomaly  L. Coyote   Jul-23-06 11:38 PM   #19 
  - Ron, thank you for this great analysis  rumpel   Jul-24-06 12:14 AM   #20 
  - Nails Warren Mitofsky as the bumbling, self righteous a$$hole he really is.  farmbo   Jul-24-06 07:46 AM   #21 
  - And your problem is?  Febble   Jul-24-06 08:16 AM   #23 
     - You've got to be kidding, right?  organik   Jul-24-06 11:58 AM   #25 
     - It's certainly not silly  Febble   Jul-24-06 12:26 PM   #26 
     - Your loyalty to you erstwhile patron does you great credit, Prebs.  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Jul-24-06 01:16 PM   #27 
     - Oh jeez  Febble   Jul-24-06 01:18 PM   #28 
        - It's silly that anonymous polling data can't be released owing to...  farmbo   Jul-24-06 01:56 PM   #29 
           - The names are not on the responses  Febble   Jul-24-06 02:37 PM   #34 
           - Given how everyone here feels about Choicepoint (rightfully so!)  salvorhardin   Jul-24-06 05:36 PM   #44 
     - RE: wouldn't show up in the exit poll anyway ...  L. Coyote   Jul-24-06 02:05 PM   #30 
     - Well, you can certainly add it.  Febble   Jul-24-06 02:22 PM   #32 
        - RE: The qualifier "for which there is best evidence in Ohio"  L. Coyote   Jul-24-06 02:59 PM   #37 
           - Nope  Febble   Jul-24-06 04:08 PM   #41 
           - Thanks, this helps  L. Coyote   Jul-24-06 06:06 PM   #48 
           - I should also add:  Febble   Jul-24-06 04:18 PM   #42 
     - a 17% shift in their margin  L. Coyote   Jul-24-06 02:26 PM   #33 
        - Yes indeed  Febble   Jul-24-06 02:44 PM   #35 
           - RE: "Ron's "virtually irrefutable evidence" from the exit polls is nothing  L. Coyote   Jul-24-06 03:06 PM   #38 
              - Well, he's done it in writing  Febble   Jul-24-06 03:57 PM   #40 
     - In regard to exit polls, I've noticed plenty of silly, the other way  Awsi Dooger   Jul-24-06 02:55 PM   #36 
        - Hi Awsi, you seem to merit a TIA refuting...  Melissa G   Jul-24-06 10:06 PM   #55 
        - I seriously doubt TIA looked at the "When Decided" category prior to 2004  Awsi Dooger   Jul-25-06 11:02 PM   #76 
           - I was going to give you a long answer until I read your down  Melissa G   Jul-26-06 09:07 PM   #98 
           - You have been refuted.. again...Check your in box.n/t  Melissa G   Jul-26-06 09:56 PM   #99 
              - Thank you for the link in your PM  Awsi Dooger   Jul-27-06 01:39 AM   #100 
              - Hi Awsi ,TIA likes your math, if not your conclusions...  Melissa G   Jul-27-06 07:36 PM   #107 
                 - Admittedly, that "When Decided" has been less varied in '00 and '04  Awsi Dooger   Jul-27-06 10:41 PM   #109 
              - Has that ever made a difference...  autorank   Jul-27-06 02:45 AM   #102 
                 - nope, serious discussion here is very, very difficult n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-27-06 07:09 AM   #103 
        - Yeah, right  BeFree   Jul-24-06 11:10 PM   #58 
           - I thought you were ignoring me  Awsi Dooger   Jul-25-06 11:16 PM   #77 
           - Made up? No. Mistake? yep  BeFree   Jul-26-06 06:41 AM   #82 
              - presumably you meant this to reply to me  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 06:53 AM   #83 
                 - There goes that integrity thing, again  BeFree   Jul-26-06 07:18 AM   #84 
                    - nope, it's a fact thing  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 07:40 AM   #85 
                       - It is your credibility in question  BeFree   Jul-26-06 08:06 AM   #86 
                          - again, if you don't have an argument, then you don't have an argument  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 08:31 AM   #87 
                             - Your intellectual integrity is the subject  BeFree   Jul-26-06 08:36 AM   #88 
                                - that's just dumb  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 08:41 AM   #89 
                                   - Deleted message  Name removed   Jul-26-06 08:45 AM   #90 
                                      - huh? n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 08:47 AM   #91 
           - and then there is the part you just made up  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 05:42 AM   #81 
     - Election records are PUBLIC records  RonB   Jul-25-06 12:56 AM   #59 
        - They have everything to worry about  Febble   Jul-25-06 01:42 AM   #61 
           - I removed that slide from the power point  RonB   Jul-25-06 11:22 PM   #78 
              - Thanks Ron, that's decent  Febble   Jul-26-06 02:27 AM   #79 
  - Kick  BeFree   Jul-24-06 02:19 PM   #31 
  - BIG KICK  redacted   Jul-24-06 03:11 PM   #39 
  - In OH the precinct on the punchcard is identified with a printed or...  rosebud57   Jul-24-06 05:49 PM   #45 
  - Suspicous minds want to know  L. Coyote   Jul-24-06 05:59 PM   #46 
     - Excellent idea  Febble   Jul-24-06 06:03 PM   #47 
     - But do they have hot tubs?  L. Coyote   Jul-24-06 06:51 PM   #49 
     - Febble...your take on the Miami county poll book discrepancy?  farmbo   Jul-24-06 07:08 PM   #50 
     - Well, I am waiting to see  Febble   Jul-24-06 08:12 PM   #51 
     - These stats. don't reflect drop off rates from top to bottom of the ticket  farmbo   Jul-24-06 09:09 PM   #53 
        - Well, if it's "stark"  Febble   Jul-25-06 02:07 AM   #62 
        - Sorry...I have a day job and I'm not a statistician. Part of the indignity  farmbo   Jul-25-06 04:09 AM   #65 
           - Sorry about the stats-speak  Febble   Jul-25-06 04:32 AM   #66 
        - Exactly SW OH should have been least likely to vote Connally, it's  rosebud57   Jul-25-06 07:13 AM   #70 
           - Well, stats are no substitute  Febble   Jul-25-06 05:27 PM   #73 
           - RE: "Kerry votes were tabulated as Bush votes"  L. Coyote   Jul-26-06 11:21 AM   #92 
              - a master file of ballot orders would help  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 12:35 PM   #93 
                 - deterministic pattern based on precinct name  L. Coyote   Jul-26-06 06:18 PM   #94 
                    - two concerns  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-26-06 06:37 PM   #95 
                       - the statute specifies precinct number  L. Coyote   Jul-26-06 07:36 PM   #96 
                       - yes, I know the statute  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-27-06 07:58 AM   #104 
                          - caterpillar crawl could account for the "anomalous voting patterns  L. Coyote   Jul-27-06 11:17 AM   #105 
                             - who are you lecturing, and why?  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-27-06 05:13 PM   #106 
                       - RE: "Finally I gave up because I didn't have time to check all the PDFs."  L. Coyote   Jul-26-06 07:50 PM   #97 
     - To dismiss Connaly you have to believe SW OH voters are more likely to  rosebud57   Jul-24-06 09:33 PM   #54 
     - Well, no.  Febble   Jul-25-06 02:14 AM   #63 
        - If you were a cop you would say "I smell a rat in SW OH", Connaly +  rosebud57   Jul-25-06 03:43 PM   #71 
           - I smell rats too  Febble   Jul-26-06 02:58 AM   #80 
     - the poll book thing needs more analysis  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-25-06 09:07 PM   #74 
     - Glad to see you guys talking.  Bill Bored   Jul-24-06 10:10 PM   #56 
        - Well, it's not a question  Febble   Jul-25-06 02:56 AM   #64 
        - Unless...  eomer   Jul-25-06 05:52 AM   #67 
           - Yes, and the sun is shining in a British summer  Febble   Jul-25-06 06:09 AM   #68 
              - Regarding the lack of correlation at the state level,  eomer   Jul-25-06 06:39 AM   #69 
                 - Well I compromised  Febble   Jul-25-06 05:25 PM   #72 
        - Did lightening just strike twice in the same place?BB on exit polls?  Melissa G   Jul-25-06 10:36 PM   #75 
     - When I initially stared researching punch cards in Dec. '04 I assumed that  rosebud57   Jul-24-06 08:54 PM   #52 
  - ???  AtLiberty   Jul-24-06 10:43 PM   #57 
  - Does anyone know exactly when that ballot rotation started?  Awsi Dooger   Jul-27-06 10:08 PM   #108 

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