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Reply #40: Well, he's done it in writing [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-24-06 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. Well, he's done it in writing
that's what my review was of.

It's here:

http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Polls-...

No, the 49 precincts are not officially identified (which is rather the point of the confidentiality issue), although at least one was identified by DUers, and is discussed by Mark Lindeman on page 10 of his paper here:

http://inside.bard.edu/~lindeman/beyond-epf.pdf

However, in their evaluation exercise, Edison-Mitofsky gathered a large amount of information about each precinct, and while there is very little statistical power at state level, it did enable some inferences to be drawn at a nationwide level. Unfortunately, their report does not give statistical details, and in any case I think they did it wrong. Which was why (to cut a long story short) I ended up being contracted to analyse it again.

But, as I said, that analysis can tell us very little at state level, as there are so few precincts per state. What is interesting, however, from the state level data, is that redshift was greatest in the bluest states, which seems to be a general tendency, at least in the five years given in the E-M report. And when you plot a regression line through the states in 2004, Ohio is not far from the regression line. So there is no particular reason to suppose it bucked a nationwide trend. Which may mean that the nationwide trends can tell us something about Ohio.

But what the nationwide data show is that there is, as in Ohio, no tendency for redshift to be correlated with advantage to Bush. And there is a strong tendency for redshift to be associated with factors likely to make any underlying differential response tendency manifest (i.e. greater opportunities for selection bias to creep in).

There's other stuff too.


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