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Reply #40: no, they haven't [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-15-06 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. no, they haven't
It's not clear exactly what Baiman is mad at Manjoo for not having addressed, but the fact remains: while the discrepancy in Ohio was outside a nominal margin of error, the margin in Ohio was not. Frankly, Baiman doesn't work on the exit polls, and his opinions about what the standard errors ought to be are entirely irrelevant.

The Freeman excerpt above uses a lot of words to say almost nothing; I can't tell whether that was accidental. Regardless, pages 22 of the "detailed 77-page report" shows that the exit polls did not "indicate" a Kerry victory in Nevada, New Mexico, or Ohio -- at least not in the parlance of any survey researcher I can think of. All three states were within the margin of error, too close to call. Call me nutty, but I bet Manjoo looked at page 22 at some point since the report came out in January 2005. Heck, I bet Freeman did too. He just chooses to ignore it, which makes his attributions of "ignorance" pretty darn brassy.
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  -"The Horror": Why the Left Won't Believe RFK Jr, How to Help Them Listen McCamy Taylor  Jun-14-06 12:47 PM   #0 
  - The left won't listen to RFK Jr. because he's a crank  salvorhardin   Jun-14-06 12:51 PM   #1 
  - what track record is that?  madrchsod   Jun-14-06 01:29 PM   #2 
  - RFJ Jr. acquired his crank status the old fashioned way  salvorhardin   Jun-14-06 03:11 PM   #4 
     - What a bunch of crap.....  BeFree   Jun-14-06 09:17 PM   #11 
        - With us or against us  salvorhardin   Jun-14-06 09:23 PM   #13 
           - So....  BeFree   Jun-14-06 09:42 PM   #16 
           - How postmodern of you. n/t  salvorhardin   Jun-14-06 09:45 PM   #17 
              - Wait, come back  BeFree   Jun-14-06 09:55 PM   #19 
              - Deleted message  Name removed   Jun-14-06 10:01 PM   #21 
           - With us or against us. I like it.  Jim Sagle   Jun-14-06 10:00 PM   #20 
              - Yeah, shame  Febble   Jun-15-06 07:10 AM   #24 
                 - That's what w says, too.  Jim Sagle   Jun-15-06 01:29 PM   #41 
  - How does generating national attention to this issue not help? N/T  organik   Jun-14-06 02:27 PM   #3 
     - "Karl Rove was indicted on May 12" -- Jason Leopold  salvorhardin   Jun-14-06 03:31 PM   #5 
        - Sorry, not the same thing.  organik   Jun-14-06 04:20 PM   #6 
        - Answered above  salvorhardin   Jun-14-06 04:27 PM   #7 
           - This thread that you cite by OTIOH is not an informed discussion  Melissa G   Jun-14-06 06:09 PM   #8 
           - Well, good luck with that  salvorhardin   Jun-14-06 06:20 PM   #9 
           - Well, What an eclectic character you are! Hmm...  Melissa G   Jun-14-06 09:21 PM   #12 
           - Beg to differ  Febble   Jun-14-06 06:26 PM   #10 
           - Hi Febble, I did not say OTOH 's posts are uninformed  Melissa G   Jun-14-06 09:54 PM   #18 
              - I hadn't actually seen that thread  Febble   Jun-15-06 06:12 AM   #23 
                 - Steve's Book is out! There were 4 copies at one bookstore  Melissa G   Jun-15-06 08:00 AM   #25 
                    - OK, that's fine  Febble   Jun-15-06 08:08 AM   #27 
           - here's a thought...  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-15-06 09:53 AM   #28 
              - OTOH, Do you actually read what you are responding to before you  Melissa G   Jun-15-06 11:28 AM   #32 
                 - well...  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-15-06 12:38 PM   #38 
                    - No, the article was significantly based on RFK, Jr's early reading of  Melissa G   Jun-15-06 02:07 PM   #42 
                       - you don't have a leg to stand on here  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-15-06 03:19 PM   #43 
                          - Deleted message  Name removed   Jun-15-06 08:34 PM   #45 
           - Baiman and Freeman have provided well informed summaries:  mod mom   Jun-15-06 12:34 PM   #37 
              - no, they haven't  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-15-06 12:52 PM   #40 
        - Nobody can prove that the Election  daydreamer   Jun-15-06 08:08 AM   #26 
           - Reality check  salvorhardin   Jun-15-06 10:09 AM   #29 
              - two notes  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-15-06 10:33 AM   #30 
              - Yes! I agree!  salvorhardin   Jun-15-06 11:10 AM   #31 
              - Vendor from hell?  BeFree   Jun-15-06 11:46 AM   #33 
                 - Lovely display of anti-intellectualism there  salvorhardin   Jun-15-06 12:18 PM   #34 
                    - What?  BeFree   Jun-15-06 12:23 PM   #35 
                       - Hey, where'd yall go?  BeFree   Jun-15-06 04:58 PM   #44 
              - Exit polls point to the fact that the election was stolen, the evidence in  mod mom   Jun-15-06 12:43 PM   #39 
                 - Well you need to exercise discernment  Febble   Jun-16-06 11:07 AM   #46 
                    - The exit polls are a crock?  BeFree   Jun-16-06 12:47 PM   #47 
                    - Well, either you know what I am talking about  Febble   Jun-16-06 12:51 PM   #48 
                    - luckily, folks know to ignore the New York data at all costs  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-16-06 01:20 PM   #49 
                       - Direct? You need a map?  BeFree   Jun-16-06 01:23 PM   #50 
                          - no, BeFree, why don't you?  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-16-06 01:31 PM   #51 
                             - You have no clue?  BeFree   Jun-16-06 01:47 PM   #53 
                                - you first  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-16-06 01:51 PM   #54 
                                   - Me first? What is this a game, a childrens game?  BeFree   Jun-16-06 01:58 PM   #55 
                                      - for you, perhaps n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-16-06 02:06 PM   #56 
                                         - No game, deadly serious  BeFree   Jun-16-06 02:19 PM   #57 
                                            - umm, okay  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-16-06 02:33 PM   #58 
                                               - As accurate as could be  BeFree   Jun-16-06 03:06 PM   #59 
                                                  - hmm  OnTheOtherHand   Jun-16-06 04:13 PM   #60 
                    - Lax recount and audit procedures...  salvorhardin   Jun-16-06 01:43 PM   #52 
                       - I don't know  Febble   Jun-16-06 04:22 PM   #61 
                          - Interesting. Thank you.  salvorhardin   Jun-17-06 12:04 AM   #62 
  - Sometimes when you act like an ostrich, you become an ostrich!  Kip Humphrey   Jun-14-06 09:23 PM   #14 
  - Another damn fine post McCamy Taylor. K & R  glitch   Jun-14-06 09:28 PM   #15 
  - kicked and recommended!  BrklynLiberal   Jun-14-06 10:46 PM   #22 
  - Wonderful post McCamy  BeFree   Jun-15-06 12:33 PM   #36 
  - McCamy Taylor, I like your Heart of Darkness analogy but here is  autorank   Jun-17-06 08:53 PM   #63 

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