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Reply #13: Clarification from Kathy [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-23-06 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #1
13. Clarification from Kathy
In reference to this thread, on a site to which I will not link, Kathy posts:

OntheOtherHand, here is your own paper where you made the statement that you now deny you made:

http://members.verizon.net/~mtlinde/doppresponse.p ...

where you state:

ESI argued that if exit poll error evinced vote shifting, one would expect exit poll error to be correlated with the change in vote share between 2000 and 2004. That is, where Bush did better in the 2004 vote count than in the exit poll, Bush would on average do better, compared to 2000, than in precincts where the exit polls actually overstated Bushs 2004 vote share.

Kathy's response to that paper of yours is here:

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-pol ...

Please OntheOtherHand, let us tell DUers the true facts.


In her footnote to page one of the document linked in the OP, Kathy states:

{...}and rephrased by Liddle and Lindeman: "If there is vote fraud, then there will be a positive correlation between Bush vote increase from 2000 to 2004 and the exit poll discrepancy."
http://inside.bard.edu/~lindeman/slides.html


she thus mis-cites the source (different document), mis-attributes it (to Lindeman and Liddle, not to Lindeman) and misquotes it anyway.

She has, in fact, "paraphrased" Lindeman's paraphrase of ESI, expressed it as a quotation (i.e used quotation marks), and misunderstood it.

The statement as she misquotes in the OP link is not a true statement, and would indeed be refuted by a single counter example. The sentence she correctly quotes above from Lindeman is a true statement. Expectations can be thwarted in statistics, which is why we deal in probabilities not certainties.

I suggest that until Kathy learns to correctly attribute quotations, and indeed to correctly quote other writers at all, she refrains from calling those she misquotes "liars". I also suggest acquires a basic understanding of the nature of statistical inference.


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