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Reply #15: I don't get it [View All]

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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-21-06 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. I don't get it
Where the problem lies is with the 30% of early votes compared with the 70% final day votes. One would think that a poll of 30% of the actual votes would be a pretty accurate poll, eh?

PRESIDENT (absentee)
George W. Bush: 529,755 52.9%
John F. Kerry: 469,522 46.9% -6.0
Others: 2749 0.2%

PRESIDENT (overall)
George W. Bush: 1,961,188 56.0%
John F. Kerry: 1,525,821 43.6% -12.4
Others: 13,989 0.4%

PRESIDENT (poll only)
George W. Bush: 1,431,433 57.3%
John F. Kerry: 1,056,299 42.3% -15.0
Others: 11,240 0.4%

-----------------
I asked Febble if we could see the list of the 40 precincts of exit-poll numbers, so that we could do a study of just those 40 precincts comparing the 2000 vote, and the machines used both times and the 2004 vote.

That's why just 40 precincts.
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  -Exit Poll Margin of Error in North Carolina 2004 BeFree  May-21-06 10:41 AM   #0 
  - well, not really  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 11:11 AM   #1 
  - well  BeFree   May-21-06 11:56 AM   #3 
     - well, let's see  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 01:49 PM   #5 
        - Thanks for the links  BeFree   May-21-06 02:44 PM   #6 
        - that's one approach, I guess  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 03:35 PM   #9 
           - makes sense  BeFree   May-21-06 04:04 PM   #13 
        - Exit poll at +4 Bush?  BeFree   May-21-06 02:59 PM   #7 
        - yes, I am saying that  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 03:41 PM   #10 
        - how to explain this  BeFree   May-21-06 03:10 PM   #8 
           - how what happened?  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 04:10 PM   #14 
              - Lets stick to one race, shall we?  BeFree   May-21-06 04:32 PM   #18 
                 - huh?  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 04:38 PM   #21 
                    - you went off track then, eh?  BeFree   May-21-06 04:48 PM   #24 
                       - uh, no  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 05:45 PM   #28 
                          - This is why I am confused  BeFree   May-22-06 09:31 AM   #29 
                             - I still don't know why you are confused, so  OnTheOtherHand   May-22-06 10:28 AM   #33 
  - Yes,  Febble   May-21-06 11:21 AM   #2 
  - 40 precincts in the hole... as sung to "40 days in the hole"  BeFree   May-21-06 12:09 PM   #4 
  - 40 precincts out of 2,752?  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-21-06 04:03 PM   #12 
  - I don't get it  BeFree   May-21-06 04:13 PM   #15 
     - read #14, and also consider:  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 04:28 PM   #17 
        - I was talking with WILL  BeFree   May-21-06 04:36 PM   #19 
  - Oops, "30 days in the hole"  BeFree   May-22-06 09:15 PM   #47 
  - an even 100 counties, and five or six or seven-plus methods  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 04:22 PM   #16 
  - evaluating the official results for NC elections  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-21-06 04:00 PM   #11 
  - regarding comments on Occam's Razor  Land Shark   May-23-06 08:48 AM   #50 
     - I fear that your argument is a recipe for madness  OnTheOtherHand   May-23-06 10:17 AM   #51 
  - You can argue about any of these exit poll -- vote discrepancies, but  Stevepol   May-21-06 04:38 PM   #20 
  - Well said  BeFree   May-21-06 04:50 PM   #25 
  - I don't think anyone disputes what the exit poll says  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-21-06 05:05 PM   #26 
  - not at all a "large majority of PhD statisticians"  OnTheOtherHand   May-21-06 05:40 PM   #27 
  - Well, we do need to get a few things straight  Febble   May-22-06 10:01 AM   #30 
  - Senate race  BeFree   May-21-06 04:38 PM   #22 
  - Governnor race  BeFree   May-21-06 04:41 PM   #23 
  - Exit Polls/Audits/VVPB/Law  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-22-06 10:12 AM   #31 
  - Say, Will  BeFree   May-22-06 10:19 AM   #32 
  - Each NC county had audits following May 2 Primary  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-22-06 11:36 AM   #35 
     - Thanks, Will  BeFree   May-22-06 06:42 PM   #39 
        - heck no, because  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-22-06 06:50 PM   #40 
  - the reason I mentioned the numbers  Febble   May-22-06 11:46 AM   #37 
     - How...  BeFree   May-22-06 06:54 PM   #41 
        - at random by the statistician  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-22-06 07:19 PM   #42 
           - I think you answered the wrong question  OnTheOtherHand   May-22-06 07:37 PM   #43 
              - Yes, that's the question  BeFree   May-22-06 09:03 PM   #44 
              - yes, they aren't chosen as bellwethers per se  OnTheOtherHand   May-23-06 07:48 AM   #49 
              - that means that it is time  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-22-06 09:07 PM   #45 
                 - Huh?  Febble   May-23-06 10:34 AM   #52 
                    - oh, I thought Will was giving him(?)self advice  OnTheOtherHand   May-23-06 10:43 AM   #53 
                       - Ah.  Febble   May-23-06 11:22 AM   #54 
                          - One quick question Febble  BeFree   May-23-06 11:48 AM   #55 
                             - Well, no  Febble   May-23-06 01:06 PM   #56 
                                - Heck  BeFree   May-23-06 02:07 PM   #57 
                                   - I don't have a list  Febble   May-23-06 02:58 PM   #58 
                                   - "I remember many precincts being listed"  OnTheOtherHand   May-23-06 04:01 PM   #59 
                                      - Yeah, many  BeFree   May-23-06 04:34 PM   #60 
                                         - Are you saying  Febble   May-23-06 04:46 PM   #61 
                                         - Thanks, finally  BeFree   May-23-06 06:11 PM   #63 
                                         - Well, sounds like a different poll  OnTheOtherHand   May-23-06 05:02 PM   #62 
  - New York vs. NC  BeFree   May-22-06 10:37 AM   #34 
     - begging your pardon  OnTheOtherHand   May-22-06 11:40 AM   #36 
     - Sorry to get your goat  BeFree   May-22-06 09:11 PM   #46 
        - OK, just to review  OnTheOtherHand   May-23-06 07:29 AM   #48 
     - New York compared to North Carolina - reg voters, population  WillYourVoteBCounted   May-22-06 11:49 AM   #38 
 

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