Reply #6: Thanks for the links

[BeFree]

Looking them over....

at http://electoral-vote.com

(note: hover mouse over NC image for pop up box)

NC pre polls

Nov. 2. 7% Bush lead, final 13%.... 6% off http://www.electoral-vote.com/2004/pred/index.html

previous Nov. 1 had bush at 9%
http://www.electoral-vote.com/2004/pred/nov01x.html

So the shift was getting better from Nov.1 to Nov.2, for Kerry
Exit poll at 6% indictates the move from 9 to 7 to 6 exitpolls.
Sounds reasonable.

This (the) predictive map was made using the following assumptions.

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)

The numbers given for Kerry and Bush in the pop-up boxes include the undecideds.