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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:18 AM
Response to Reply #64
76. not 100%
you won't get 100% until the audit percentage is greater than the percentage of uncorrupted machines. Of course the odds of not finding a single corrupt machine with a 2% audit if there are 40% corrupt machines is very low, but it is not zero. And we are talking about thousands of jurisdictions.

I'm not knocking audits, just cautioning against thinking that some magic number will given you 100% confidence. It might be better to interpret your table as telling you how confident you can be that the percentage of corrupt machines is less than a given percentage. For example, if your table is right, you can probably interpret it to say tell you what level of confidence you can have that a given percentage of machines are uncorrupted if your 2% audit comes up clean. So, with a 2% audit, if you are happy with p<.05 (95% chance of being right), you can say that if your audit is clean, you can be statistically "confident" that no more than 15% of machines are corrupt. If you go down to p<.01 (99% chance of being right), you can merely say that you are confident that not more than 25% of your machines are uncorrupted. With many thousands of jurisdictions, I'd want my confidence to be at least 99% (1% chance of being wrong) that no more than, say 5% of machines were corrupted. That last percentage would, I suppose, depend on vote winning margin.

Looking at it a different way, if finding at least one corrupted machine triggers a full audit, then at least the 2% audit system will caution anyone trying to steal an election keep the percentage of corrupt precincts low. And also to do their best to make sure that the audit isn't random.

But I don't think 2% random audits are a panacea. I'd like someone to convince me.
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  -The HOLT BILL, major major problems in Election Reform-Land Land Shark  Apr-05-06 09:45 PM   #0 
  - Vote # 1. This belongs on the DU Homepage, imho.  understandinglife   Apr-05-06 09:48 PM   #1 
  - Voter #2  windy252   Apr-05-06 09:48 PM   #2 
  - #3. First-rate analysis and explanation of the key voting security issues  bleever   Apr-05-06 09:56 PM   #3 
  - KNR- #4  kster   Apr-05-06 09:59 PM   #4 
  - Ivory Soap is 99 and 44 one-hundredths per cent pure. So...  bleever   Apr-05-06 10:06 PM   #5 
  - I say I'm voter #5.  Wilms   Apr-05-06 10:08 PM   #6 
  - Can't, won't argue  BeFree   Apr-05-06 10:14 PM   #7 
  - If you're lost in the woods, it's wise to sit and think for a while  Land Shark   Apr-05-06 10:17 PM   #8 
     - Lost in the woods, eh?  BeFree   Apr-05-06 10:20 PM   #9 
        - I'm only rebutting tangentially the idea that we MUST do something  Land Shark   Apr-05-06 10:26 PM   #11 
           - Suggest amendments if you like-but April 6/7 is call the Hill to pass Holt  papau   Apr-07-06 08:55 AM   #54 
  - Hey LS: If all politics is local, why isn't the vote-counting?  bleever   Apr-05-06 10:25 PM   #10 
  - Well said. n/t  Wilms   Apr-05-06 10:31 PM   #12 
  - We vote locally. I trust those good folks who man my precinct  bleever   Apr-05-06 10:39 PM   #13 
     - This is the argument I find myself making.  Wilms   Apr-05-06 11:30 PM   #16 
  - I agree ...seriously ...why not?  NVMojo   Apr-05-06 11:38 PM   #20 
  - Here are yet more reasons for caution:  Amaryllis   Apr-05-06 11:00 PM   #14 
  - What's with Sec. 5, Amarylls?  Peace Patriot   Apr-06-06 12:16 AM   #27 
     - Someone else wrote this so I can't answer your question! But I think  Amaryllis   Apr-06-06 12:03 PM   #38 
  - don't forget the Trojan Horse problem. Nothing good will come out of this  Amaryllis   Apr-05-06 11:07 PM   #15 
  - HAVA and HOLT here we go again  kster   Apr-05-06 11:34 PM   #17 
  - Is that a Sequoia Redwood touchscreen, kster? n/t  Wilms   Apr-05-06 11:37 PM   #19 
  - Once again, I'm with Amaryllis  GuvWurld   Apr-06-06 01:02 AM   #31 
  - definitely home page, must read material!  NVMojo   Apr-05-06 11:34 PM   #18 
  - HR 550 appears to have several critically important, positive provisions...  Peace Patriot   Apr-05-06 11:40 PM   #21 
  - LS isn;t saying there aren't some positive provisions, just that there are  Amaryllis   Apr-05-06 11:49 PM   #23 
  - response to some of Peace Patriot's specific points  Land Shark   Apr-06-06 01:36 AM   #32 
     - Land Shark, is Holt lying to us? If so, we need to know if this is  Peace Patriot   Apr-06-06 02:37 PM   #42 
        - A spearhead/michael franti song line: U want rights? Ask 'em to READ 'em  Land Shark   Apr-06-06 02:46 PM   #44 
  - READ THIS  garybeck   Apr-05-06 11:46 PM   #22 
  - That's what I posted on post 14. That's okay; people will be more likelly  Amaryllis   Apr-05-06 11:50 PM   #24 
     - yup, i saw yours after I posted. we'll survive :) n/t  garybeck   Apr-06-06 12:09 AM   #26 
  - Well speaking for a state whose Election Law allows us to keep  Bill Bored   Apr-06-06 12:03 AM   #25 
  - Audits very critical, can't afford Holt audits discrediting all audits  Land Shark   Apr-06-06 12:58 AM   #29 
  - I am amending my "Resources for American Revolution II" as follows:  Peace Patriot   Apr-06-06 12:36 AM   #28 
  - And here's more:  Bill Bored   Apr-06-06 01:00 AM   #30 
  - Let's apply the Holt "audit" provision to some place like Iowa  Land Shark   Apr-06-06 01:42 AM   #33 
  - This is why  BeFree   Apr-06-06 09:54 PM   #48 
  - Thank you. I'm tired of second class solutions to world class problems.  autorank   Apr-06-06 02:22 AM   #34 
  - thanks for your thoughts auto, always on point  Land Shark   Apr-06-06 09:59 AM   #35 
  - DBSM?  Amaryllis   Apr-06-06 11:59 AM   #36 
  - LS, what about your argument that SECRET VOTE COUNTING is illegal  Amaryllis   Apr-06-06 12:01 PM   #37 
  - that's a good point, but we need to weigh in on what constitutes PROOF  Land Shark   Apr-06-06 01:37 PM   #40 
  - Can you guess which one is Diebold and which one is Holt 550?  kster   Apr-06-06 10:28 PM   #49 
     - Great image, Kster! Lemme see....after careful deliberation I think I have  Amaryllis   Apr-07-06 10:33 AM   #55 
     - Yep, the Coyote " Holt bill" is trying to get the Road runner "Diebold"  kster   Apr-07-06 06:43 PM   #56 
        - I thought Diebold was coyote and Holt was roadrunner! Roadrunner is  Amaryllis   Apr-07-06 08:10 PM   #57 
     - Acme is Diebold, Road Runner is the Election and the Coyote is...  Bill Bored   Apr-07-06 08:59 PM   #58 
        - Meep Meep!! That's a good one.  Land Shark   Apr-07-06 10:39 PM   #60 
        - I like that one, wouldn't that make our Goverment be like  kster   Apr-07-06 11:03 PM   #61 
           - funny thing is, once you realize the odds of this 2% audit catching  Land Shark   Apr-08-06 01:39 AM   #62 
              - Right now there are states that  kster   Apr-08-06 02:23 AM   #63 
                 - No this is an exaggeration. I'm sure it says "at least 2%."  Bill Bored   Apr-08-06 02:55 AM   #64 
                    - Atleast 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and or 10%  kster   Apr-08-06 03:30 AM   #65 
                    - doesn't matter what the bill ULTIMATELY means, you can bet your life  Land Shark   Apr-08-06 05:47 AM   #66 
                    - it's true that it does say 'at least 2%' but since when do people go above  Land Shark   Apr-08-06 05:51 AM   #67 
                    - One interpretation is that if the one-in-each-county requirement  Bill Bored   Apr-09-06 02:43 AM   #75 
                    - not 100%  Febble   Apr-09-06 05:18 AM   #76 
                       - Because of the nature of DREs allowing for multiple ballots to be  Land Shark   Apr-09-06 05:51 AM   #77 
                       - as far as the effect of "cautioning" folks to keep their fraud limited  Land Shark   Apr-10-06 11:42 PM   #80 
  - One of our county election clerks said "Be very careful what you ask for."  Amaryllis   Apr-06-06 01:31 PM   #39 
  - Another good point, I call that "turning the kaleidoscope" above  Land Shark   Apr-06-06 01:39 PM   #41 
     - think you have a typo in second sentence in above post, can you  Amaryllis   Apr-06-06 02:39 PM   #43 
  - I certainly agree with your point about the audits  Time for change   Apr-06-06 03:53 PM   #45 
  - Paul this is great -  Joe for Clark   Apr-06-06 04:49 PM   #46 
  - kick + rec'd, nt  mod mom   Apr-06-06 05:20 PM   #47 
  - Can we take OHIO as an example?  Bill Bored   Apr-06-06 10:46 PM   #50 
  - I think we have to write our respective congressmen/women to talk  rumpel   Apr-07-06 01:29 AM   #51 
  - Imagine another Bush-styled election in November - which is likely  Imagevision   Apr-07-06 01:40 AM   #52 
  - -  kster   Apr-10-06 11:29 PM   #79 
     - er, could you repeat that, again? : ) eom  Land Shark   Apr-11-06 08:32 AM   #81 
  - I was minutes away from  WeHoldTheseTruths   Apr-07-06 05:11 AM   #53 
  - I'm at the votetrustusa conference right now, and it's being discussed  Land Shark   Apr-07-06 10:34 PM   #59 
  - A Bev Harris Bot appears  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-08-06 06:34 PM   #68 
  - Damn I'm getting confused.  lonestarnot   Apr-14-06 04:27 PM   #84 
  - You're right, who needs voter verified paper ballots  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-08-06 06:42 PM   #69 
  - kick.nt  kster   Apr-08-06 07:25 PM   #70 
  - How do you audit paperless voting?  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-08-06 07:33 PM   #71 
     - Better question, Why did my Government allow paperless voting  kster   Apr-08-06 11:51 PM   #74 
  - Thanks Paul!  Steve A Play   Apr-08-06 07:44 PM   #72 
  - yeah, we just heard from Mr. Martinez of the EAC today at the DC conf'ence  Land Shark   Apr-08-06 08:35 PM   #73 
  - KICK.NT  kster   Apr-09-06 03:41 PM   #78 
  - The GOP, Diebold & Pres Jeb Bush are greatful to you  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-11-06 06:47 PM   #82 
  - your opposition completely deluded  WillYourVoteBCounted   Apr-11-06 07:05 PM   #83 

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