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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-12-05 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #7
27. Invisible Ida again:
VOTE COUNTING METHODS: Three main vote counting methods are used by the state of New Hampshire as reported on the Secretary of State's website as of January, 2004: ACCUVOTE, OPTECH, and "PBHC" - Paper Ballots, Hand Counted.

PBHC are used in approximately 50% (149) of all precincts, but the smaller size of the precincts means this method is responsible for only 21% (142,234) of the overall votes counted. PBHC account for 27% (19) of the "out of trend" precincts, but comprise only 8% (20,192) of potentially affected votes.

OPTECH is used in approximately 8% (25) of all precincts, and accounts for 12% (82,094) of all votes counted. The 8 "out of trend" precincts are 11% of the total affected precincts, and only 14% (35,839) of the potentially affected votes. There should be some concern for the equipment in Category E, which has a 42% "out of trend" precinct rate. The 50% ranking for both Categories F and G may simply be a statistical anomaly due to the small sample size.

ACCUVOTE is currently used only 42% of the time (in 126 precincts), but accounts for 67% or 453,235 of all votes counted. This method has the highest rate of "out of trend" precincts: 44 precincts, or 62% of the total "out of trend" precincts use this method of vote counting; of more concern is the fact that, due to the larger size of the precincts involved, this represents 78% of all votes in affected "out of trend" precincts, for a whopping 200,269 potentially miscalculated votes -- nearly 30% of all votes cast in the 2004 presidential election in the state of New Hampshire.

All are therefore paper ballots.

She concluded that the biggest anomalies were in large precincts using Accuvote. It was the precincts with the largest anomalies that were recounted.

One thing worth noting - the largest precincts in NH are HUGE - way bigger than precincts elsewhere. We know that the exit poll redshift tended to be larger where the interviewing interval was high (e.g. every 10th voter), and interviewing intervals were high in large precincts. So it is at least possible that the high WPE in NH was due to departures from random sampling in large precincts.

Just sayin'
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  -Mother Jones magazine lets Hertsgaard hack on democracy and elections Land Shark  Nov-12-05 04:12 PM   #0 
  - It reminds me of an old Reese's commercial  GuvWurld   Nov-12-05 04:43 PM   #1 
  - LOL!  sfexpat2000   Nov-12-05 04:50 PM   #2 
  - had to think of "you got peanut butter on my chocolate": smoke and mirrors  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 04:51 PM   #3 
  - Or, as I once heard someone say who was newly elected to congress:  Amaryllis   Nov-12-05 04:58 PM   #8 
  - Well, hang on a bit....  Febble   Nov-12-05 04:52 PM   #4 
  - Oh, dear Febble, hang on or I'll have to take you to the woodshed too....  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 04:57 PM   #6 
  - Well yes  Febble   Nov-12-05 05:36 PM   #12 
     - I'll take "well yes" to be the concession intended, and here's a start:  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 05:52 PM   #16 
        - FYI my state of NH uses optical scanners most everywhere.  Warren Stupidity   Nov-12-05 07:39 PM   #30 
           - think again about optical scanners  garybeck   Nov-12-05 08:14 PM   #32 
           - I agree 99% of NH is saintly honest, that leaves thousands left over...  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 08:25 PM   #33 
  - WHat kind of machines?  druidity33   Nov-12-05 04:57 PM   #7 
     - Invisible Ida again:  Febble   Nov-12-05 06:28 PM   #27 
  - Talk to Kip. He said NH wasn't properly recounted to catch the problems.  Amaryllis   Nov-12-05 04:56 PM   #5 
  - So this would mean NH recount didn't even rule out the error recounts can  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 04:59 PM   #9 
     - What forms of corruption will a recount miss  Febble   Nov-12-05 05:58 PM   #21 
     - Yes, according to Kip. Something about the way it's organized with  Amaryllis   Nov-12-05 09:22 PM   #35 
        - Interesting but vague.  Bill Bored   Nov-12-05 11:47 PM   #41 
           - It's been nearly a year since Kip and I talked about this, so I don't  Amaryllis   Nov-13-05 07:54 PM   #54 
  - Good work with Mother Jones Shark...whip them into shape!  autorank   Nov-12-05 05:18 PM   #10 
  - no math required for the sniff test  nashville_brook   Nov-12-05 05:20 PM   #11 
  - Well that's what recounts do  Febble   Nov-12-05 05:43 PM   #13 
     - Don't think recounts show it "starts to look like" error's in exit polls.  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 06:00 PM   #22 
        - The recounted precincts  Febble   Nov-12-05 06:16 PM   #25 
           - You tell me Febble,  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 07:23 PM   #28 
           - See reply #27 n/t  Febble   Nov-13-05 12:48 AM   #43 
           - just stuff 'em all on election day, right?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-12-05 07:24 PM   #29 
           - There were a small number of precincts involved  sean in iowa   Nov-13-05 09:14 PM   #57 
              - Here are more links to the NH timeline  sean in iowa   Nov-13-05 10:01 PM   #58 
  - Oh dear. Now someone will have to go on Democracy Now too,  Ojai Person   Nov-12-05 05:50 PM   #14 
  - Very well done Land Shark. I am glad MJ is printing it, it might help  glitch   Nov-12-05 05:51 PM   #15 
  - Go get em landshark  kster   Nov-12-05 05:53 PM   #17 
  - "videotape of the 1000 ballot replacement"  garybeck   Nov-12-05 05:53 PM   #18 
  - videotape is assumed in my hypothetical so I can prove to Hertsgaard  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 06:02 PM   #23 
     - LOL  Febble   Nov-12-05 06:17 PM   #26 
     - OK, so  garybeck   Nov-12-05 07:44 PM   #31 
        - Assuming the recount was done right (contested) and assuming  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 09:26 PM   #36 
        - How to cheat using optical scan or punch card.  Zan_of_Texas   Nov-13-05 12:36 AM   #42 
           - in the case of machine recounts, the same ballot definition errors Repeat  Land Shark   Nov-13-05 02:27 PM   #49 
           - a manual recount would catch ballot definition errors n/t  garybeck   Nov-15-05 10:17 PM   #99 
        - I believe that the recount in NH does indeed cast doubt on the  Time for change   Nov-12-05 10:26 PM   #39 
           - And I believe the recounts in some OHIO counties cast doubt....  kiwi_expat   Nov-15-05 07:42 AM   #91 
  - One the punchcard ballots are detached from the deck, there is no serial #  rosebud57   Nov-12-05 05:55 PM   #19 
  - New Hampshire would not have been worth commiting election  rosebud57   Nov-12-05 05:56 PM   #20 
     - actually the most likely scenarios included a lot of E-College ties  Land Shark   Nov-12-05 06:05 PM   #24 
     - I'd make that a bit more complicated  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-13-05 07:26 AM   #44 
  - Primary states  starmaker   Nov-12-05 08:56 PM   #34 
  - LS- this buds foor you  FogerRox   Nov-12-05 10:24 PM   #38 
     - Thanks for all the family pics here, reminds me of our last LShark reunion  Land Shark   Nov-13-05 04:13 PM   #52 
        - And you must be a cousin of the Oxford Land Shark:  Febble   Nov-14-05 12:47 PM   #72 
           - At the definite risk of seeming impotent, full of rage and anger.....  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 01:44 PM   #75 
              - It seems I got  Febble   Nov-14-05 02:05 PM   #78 
                 - Though gratifying to know your mistake is in the "doesn't matter 2 much"  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 07:10 PM   #86 
  - Congratulations on having your letter published Land Shark  Time for change   Nov-12-05 10:17 PM   #37 
  - Well, they've got MoJo spots on Air America now saying Dems  Bill Bored   Nov-12-05 11:33 PM   #40 
  - Rec number 15! Where's Kip and Ida to add to the Discussion?  Melissa G   Nov-13-05 09:04 AM   #45 
  - Well, I have to say  Febble   Nov-13-05 10:38 AM   #46 
  - reminds me why Land Shark (both) wants to bite Hertsgaard's head off  Land Shark   Nov-13-05 02:12 PM   #48 
  - What dumb-ass mistakes?  Febble   Nov-13-05 02:50 PM   #51 
  - The issue is hertsgaard, not your straw men  Land Shark   Nov-13-05 08:59 PM   #55 
     - Hertsgaard's investigations  Febble   Nov-14-05 02:14 AM   #59 
        - Correction  Febble   Nov-14-05 05:01 AM   #60 
           - Please see my post #64; I think you radically underappreciate that  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 09:39 AM   #65 
              - If you view this entire debate  Febble   Nov-14-05 10:41 AM   #66 
                 - I think I could demonstrate such ability, in fact other than hard stats  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 11:25 AM   #70 
                    - "Totality of evidence":  Febble   Nov-14-05 12:42 PM   #71 
                       - caution is indicated on your use of the word "foil"  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 01:55 PM   #77 
                          - Not sampling error  Febble   Nov-14-05 02:07 PM   #79 
  - and by the way, how DO you explain New Hampshire?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-13-05 04:19 PM   #53 
     - The issue is Hertsgaard, not YOUR straw men OTOH  Land Shark   Nov-13-05 09:14 PM   #56 
        - my straw men?  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-14-05 06:04 AM   #61 
           - Re: conclusions to draw from the NH recount  sean in iowa   Nov-14-05 07:27 AM   #62 
              - well, I disagree with your "zero," but --  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-14-05 04:36 PM   #85 
  - "He bothers to look behind frequently-cited assertions and try to  Time for change   Nov-14-05 08:26 AM   #63 
  - THank you Time for Change for Numbered Points, my responses are:  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 09:22 AM   #64 
  - But let's put this in perspective  Time for change   Nov-14-05 11:14 AM   #68 
     - on "sitting back and playing scientist" please see my new post  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 11:20 AM   #69 
  - That's truly pathetic!  Chi   Nov-14-05 01:22 PM   #73 
  - You're welcome Chi - Here is my full response to the article  Time for change   Nov-14-05 02:40 PM   #82 
  - Well, I think that your use of  Febble   Nov-14-05 01:32 PM   #74 
     - we shall see if the Hertsgaard approach engenders any prosecution  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 01:47 PM   #76 
     - Or to boost the credibility  Febble   Nov-14-05 02:17 PM   #80 
        - But if the beating up is cheap shots, it just takes us away from the truth  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 04:15 PM   #84 
           - Cheap shots have no place  Febble   Nov-15-05 01:43 AM   #89 
              - Yes. on the margins, a cheap shot is not a classic cheap shot  Land Shark   Nov-15-05 07:48 AM   #92 
                 - You have suggested that my posts  Febble   Nov-15-05 11:05 AM   #95 
                    - another legal concept, how i've been trained to think at least  Land Shark   Nov-15-05 02:15 PM   #96 
                       - Shoutfest on other thread n/t  Febble   Nov-15-05 04:34 PM   #98 
     - Ok, I admitted that perhaps "burst the myth" is over-dramatic with regard  Time for change   Nov-14-05 02:36 PM   #81 
        - OK!  Febble   Nov-14-05 02:41 PM   #83 
           - Yes he did  Time for change   Nov-14-05 11:06 PM   #88 
  - To be fair, I do agree with you that Hertsgaard's last paragraph is fair  Time for change   Nov-14-05 10:59 AM   #67 
     - Need to focus on where we're at: NO INVESTIGATION  Land Shark   Nov-14-05 07:44 PM   #87 
        - Yes, I basicaly agree  Time for change   Nov-15-05 07:34 AM   #90 
        - your nutshell interpretation is EXACTLY  marions ghost   Nov-15-05 08:20 AM   #93 
        - So what about New Hampshire  PATRICK   Nov-15-05 10:49 AM   #94 
  - Finally, The Nation gets real with cartoon, "Ohio Voting"  Ojai Person   Nov-13-05 12:32 PM   #47 
  - Excellent Ojai Person! n/t  Melissa G   Nov-13-05 02:36 PM   #50 
  - Land Shark has now REALLY GONE AFTER Hertsgaard!!!!! (Picture!)  Land Shark   Nov-15-05 02:17 PM   #97 
  - Excellent Post - Thank you  sunshinekathy   Dec-22-05 02:11 AM   #100 
  - Just a couple points about the NH recount.  Stevepol   Dec-22-05 05:23 AM   #101 
     - Ida Briggs' original study is here:  Febble   Dec-22-05 06:28 AM   #102 
     - how "concentrated" could the discrepancies have been?  OnTheOtherHand   Dec-22-05 07:04 AM   #103 

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