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Reply #78: I think you are getting somewhere [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-27-05 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #75
78. I think you are getting somewhere
what I like is the use of registration figures as an input. It's also consistent with my hunch that predominantly Democratic precincts might be the best place to hide fraud. Let me add it to my model.

It should make a testable hypothesis - if you can get increase in Dem regisration figures for each NEP precinct, we could ask Mitofsky to test whether PLD was greater in those precincts than elsewhere.

But let me keep thinking....

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  -Calculatus Eliminatus Febble  Oct-23-05 04:10 PM   #0 
  - hey now--  FogerRox   Oct-23-05 10:13 PM   #1 
  - A few corrections on the above Febble-isms  Land Shark   Oct-23-05 10:46 PM   #2 
  - And if they are so right why won't Mitofsky  kster   Oct-23-05 11:17 PM   #3 
  - Well, he was prepared to debate  Febble   Oct-24-05 02:10 AM   #5 
     - I know that it  kster   Oct-24-05 01:39 PM   #12 
     - Well I hate to say this  Febble   Oct-24-05 03:48 PM   #23 
        - I sure would hate  kster   Oct-24-05 07:41 PM   #38 
     - A debate generally addresses the other person's points...  Melissa G   Oct-24-05 08:08 PM   #39 
        - Well, I'm not sure  Febble   Oct-25-05 06:09 AM   #42 
           - I have heard the respect is returned Febble..  Melissa G   Oct-25-05 10:02 PM   #59 
  - I agree with your general view  Febble   Oct-24-05 02:07 AM   #4 
  - Whatever  BeFree   Oct-24-05 12:47 PM   #8 
     - heh  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-24-05 12:56 PM   #9 
     - replace "what we know" with "what I believe", and it's true  foo_bar   Oct-24-05 01:07 PM   #10 
  - inaccurate  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-24-05 06:38 AM   #6 
     - There are ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS arguments on the other side  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 02:10 PM   #13 
        - well, your best arguments are not based at all on exit polls, but  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-24-05 02:38 PM   #15 
        - Can you tell me what your argument is in 1-2 sentences?  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 03:02 PM   #16 
        - and, is there ANYTHING that the exit polls DO PROVE? (or rule out)?  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 03:05 PM   #17 
        - See #19  Febble   Oct-24-05 03:38 PM   #21 
        - OK  Febble   Oct-24-05 03:36 PM   #20 
           - Excellent short second sentence, on a par with "Jesus wept"  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 03:45 PM   #22 
              - Well, it's a potential killer argument  Febble   Oct-24-05 03:49 PM   #24 
                 - I was admiring its brevity, mostly  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 04:27 PM   #30 
                    - Well I know you were  Febble   Oct-24-05 04:52 PM   #31 
        - OTOH, re your post #15, I will start a new thread on what exit polls show  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 10:26 PM   #40 
           - do you mean the "primer for screwing Democrats"?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-25-05 06:50 AM   #43 
              - Yes, starting that thread led me to the Primer....  Land Shark   Oct-25-05 07:07 AM   #44 
                 - if not like criminals, than at least like policy analysts or ecologists  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-25-05 09:30 AM   #45 
                 - Yes, complex systems with multiple causation most likely, but consider  Land Shark   Oct-25-05 10:57 AM   #47 
                 - Ha!  Febble   Oct-25-05 10:02 AM   #46 
        - Well, to take you last point,  Febble   Oct-24-05 03:07 PM   #18 
           - Well that was entertainingly and well written, thank you.  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 04:22 PM   #29 
              - Well I think the key exchange here  Febble   Oct-24-05 05:25 PM   #34 
                 - I'm forced to agree "net benefit" is key : )  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 06:35 PM   #37 
                    - Well, bad news on the R squared  Febble   Oct-25-05 01:54 AM   #41 
                       - agreed on bringing these other folks in: Need to Know the Voting Systems  Land Shark   Oct-25-05 11:05 AM   #48 
                          - Are you saying?  BeFree   Oct-25-05 11:47 AM   #49 
                             - It's like a field of solid corn; one disease wipes the whole field out  Land Shark   Oct-25-05 12:18 PM   #50 
                                - A mutating disease?  BeFree   Oct-25-05 01:07 PM   #51 
                                - Well, first of all  Febble   Oct-25-05 01:31 PM   #52 
                                   - If a campaign, governmental office, Mitofsky employee or anyone else  Land Shark   Oct-25-05 02:16 PM   #53 
                                      - Thinking like a criminal  BeFree   Oct-25-05 02:56 PM   #54 
                                      - Well, I've certainly been saying  Febble   Oct-25-05 03:06 PM   #55 
                                      - Febble connecting your message #55 with the one a little further above  Land Shark   Oct-25-05 06:16 PM   #58 
                                         - Well I agree  Febble   Oct-26-05 02:35 AM   #61 
                                      - well, at first glance...  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-25-05 05:32 PM   #56 
                                         - twin peaks!  Land Shark   Oct-25-05 06:09 PM   #57 
  - Thank you for all your work on this, and for this thorough explanation  Time for change   Oct-24-05 12:01 PM   #7 
  - Sometimes it's hard to get my head round this  Febble   Oct-24-05 01:28 PM   #11 
     - OK, do the exit polls rule OUT any types of fraud or error?  Land Shark   Oct-24-05 02:37 PM   #14 
     - Well yes, I think they do  Febble   Oct-24-05 03:33 PM   #19 
        - It sounds like after you agreed with my scenario # 5, you are  Time for change   Oct-24-05 03:50 PM   #25 
           - I don't quite understand your last sentence  Febble   Oct-24-05 04:14 PM   #28 
              - It sounds like you did understand my last sentence,  Time for change   Oct-24-05 05:10 PM   #33 
                 - OK, I'm lost!  Febble   Oct-24-05 05:31 PM   #36 
     - Why scenarios # 1 and # 2 would cause state-wide red shift  Time for change   Oct-24-05 03:54 PM   #26 
        - Well, that would depend  Febble   Oct-24-05 03:58 PM   #27 
           - Don't you mean that I would be right if turnout was NOT factored in?  Time for change   Oct-24-05 05:07 PM   #32 
              - Well I'm really out of my tree here  Febble   Oct-24-05 05:28 PM   #35 
  - Joining this late, but: ESI's hypothesis seems bogus on its face.  sean in iowa   Oct-25-05 10:41 PM   #60 
  - Well, I agree  Febble   Oct-26-05 02:46 AM   #62 
     - welcome, sean! let's step back for a moment...  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-26-05 06:00 AM   #63 
     - "Vote Fraud" is a terribly imprecise term  Land Shark   Oct-26-05 08:57 AM   #64 
        - umm, I think so, yes  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-26-05 04:36 PM   #65 
           - To be honest  Febble   Oct-26-05 04:41 PM   #66 
              - well, I'm queasy there myself  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-26-05 07:38 PM   #69 
              - Come on Febble!  Bill Bored   Oct-26-05 10:13 PM   #72 
                 - Here is a model pie chart of a precinct's WPE....  kiwi_expat   Oct-26-05 11:07 PM   #74 
     - Trying tp get the terminlogy clear here  sean in iowa   Oct-26-05 06:46 PM   #67 
        - OK  Febble   Oct-26-05 07:12 PM   #68 
           - There you go bringing "swing" into it again:)  sean in iowa   Oct-26-05 08:23 PM   #71 
              - Well, I'm not convinced....  Febble   Oct-27-05 01:31 AM   #76 
                 - Sorry it's taken so long to reply  sean in iowa   Oct-27-05 10:49 PM   #80 
  - Guys, I want to play too but will be out of commission for a while.  eomer   Oct-26-05 08:13 PM   #70 
  - Come Visit Austin Eomer! Have a computer you can use...  Melissa G   Oct-26-05 10:36 PM   #73 
  - Been missing you...  Febble   Oct-27-05 01:35 AM   #77 
  - OK, how about this?  Bill Bored   Oct-27-05 01:21 AM   #75 
  - I think you are getting somewhere  Febble   Oct-27-05 02:18 AM   #78 
  - Makes sense!  yowzayowzayowza   Oct-27-05 05:21 AM   #79 
  - You're still misleading w/ invalid analysis!  sunshinekathy   Oct-30-05 01:12 AM   #81 
     - Well frankly, Kathy  Febble   Oct-30-05 01:48 AM   #82 
 

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