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Reply #9: I think the answers are: [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-20-05 05:34 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. I think the answers are:
(1) Yes, total responses included to that time.

(2) Your wording is ambiguous, but I would say cumulative, incorporating all interviews.

(3) Not "projecting" -- as I understand it, E/M doesn't actually project the national popular vote, only state races -- but representing, yes.

(4) Yes, the afternoon of the day after.

More importantly, no, it doesn't mean that they subtracted votes from Kerry among the final 613 respondents. That isn't how the exit polls work, ever -- they don't ever figure raw percentages of respondents. The responses are always weighted. Initially, the weights reflect demographics, geography, and absentee ballots; later, they reflect official vote counts. The poll analysts don't "add" or "subtract" various kinds of voters; they multiply various respondents by numbers greater or less than 1 to hit the target proportions.

So, certainly fraud is possible (it always is), but the idea that Kerry voters were subtracted from the exit poll is incorrect.
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