Reply #118: Thanks, Melissa, again

[Febble]

I'm not sure I quite understand your problem.

As I see it, the problem is to reconcile a fraud explanation of the exit poll discrepancy with the absence of any correlation between the discrepancy and the degree to which Bush improved his vote share.

If the discrepancy WASN'T due to fraud, it is actually quite easy, as there are lots of potential ways for a poll to have bias.

But because we have reason not to believe the count, we should, as Steve says, have grave suspicions about what the discrepancy indicates.

The question really, now, is whether we can largely ascribe the exit poll discrepancy to polling bias, and concentrate on finding out why there were so many irregularities, particularly in Ohio, and New Mexico, where relatively little fraud could have had a big impact.