You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #113: Honest answer... [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-22-05 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #107
113. Honest answer...

We are biting off way too much at once....

Follow the logical thread I just had with TfC. The answers to most of your practical questions are in there. Residual voting rates have been fairly stable (officially between 2.0 and 2.5%) in modern elections until 2004. There is some "conservative inference" included because there is no consistent reporting (13000 voting jurisdictions, etc.). If I was "feeling controversial", I might argue that "spoilage" is, in fact, much larger than that.

The guys at CalTech/MIT Voting Technology Project are shills for the machine companies, but they are smart shills. They declared "victory" way too early but there is no reason NOT to believe that spoilage was reduced by one third in 2004 or that "1 million votes" were counted that would not have been in previous years. Interestingly, they only hold DREs responsible for half that gain. The rest is attributed to increased interest in the 2004 election (i.e. more people "looking").

As far as the exit polls go, the error is real. It is, presumably, reflected in every exit poll (but because it has been a 'constant' for so long, it makes me suspicious). I don't really believe it accounts for "all" of the red-shift in 3 of the last 5 elections. The magnitudes are correct but the geography is not. It must account for "much" of it, though... I think '96 is a special case and, in our discussion, will become a "red-herring". I have no problem contrasting the other 3 years with '04.

The mechanics of this type of "fraud" are subtle, imprecise, and decentralized. It is known what types of voting technology produces what kinds of error rates given certain maintenance schedules, voting processes, etc. Then those factors are "innocently" or "unintentionally" introduced. The Republicans teach Workshops on this (with the intention of "avoiding spoilage", of course). Often, it can be a budgetary process alone and it can happen at several levels of government.

As for the rest of your question, let's ask it again once we have common assumptions.

Finally, all physical problems are "games" or puzzles, by definition. Only meta-physical problems are not. They are "religions".

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
  -Freeman presentation with slides From Mitofsky Debate is Here Melissa G  Oct-18-05 09:42 AM   #0 
  - thanks, kick!!!  garybeck   Oct-18-05 10:57 AM   #1 
  - Kick?  CalmMan   Oct-19-05 09:00 AM   #24 
     - Kick is shorthand and means the user wants to keep the post in  Melissa G   Oct-20-05 08:46 PM   #65 
  - KICK-N-RECOMMEND..NT  kster   Oct-18-05 11:18 AM   #2 
  - Recommend and kick n/t  JohnGideon   Oct-18-05 11:45 AM   #3 
  - .  vickiss   Oct-18-05 11:47 AM   #4 
  - kick  Amaryllis   Oct-18-05 12:28 PM   #5 
  - great read!  Mr Grieves   Oct-18-05 02:24 PM   #6 
  - Hi Mr Grieves... Welcome to DU!  Melissa G   Oct-18-05 04:20 PM   #8 
  - Thanks for posting Melissa...  Chi   Oct-18-05 04:18 PM   #7 
  - Hi Chi, thanks for the K and N!  Melissa G   Oct-18-05 04:21 PM   #9 
  - OK, here's a response  Febble   Oct-18-05 05:11 PM   #10 
  - But this report coupled  kster   Oct-18-05 08:27 PM   #11 
  - Hi Febble, Thanks for the post. You are right it is long so it 's hard for  Melissa G   Oct-18-05 11:09 PM   #13 
  - OK  Febble   Oct-19-05 02:09 AM   #16 
  - I don't think I buy this one Feb:  Bill Bored   Oct-19-05 01:13 AM   #14 
  - hang on  Febble   Oct-19-05 01:57 AM   #15 
  - Okay Febble, I'm hearing your Edit sink your water tight alibi against  Melissa G   Oct-19-05 05:58 AM   #17 
  - No, I am not saying that  Febble   Oct-19-05 08:43 AM   #21 
     - Sorry typo  Febble   Oct-19-05 09:59 AM   #26 
  - Fair enough  Bill Bored   Oct-19-05 03:09 PM   #37 
     - Points taken  Febble   Oct-19-05 04:14 PM   #38 
        - OK, so you are refuting the TIA/Freeman 10,000,000 vote thing.  Bill Bored   Oct-19-05 08:45 PM   #47 
           - Well I tend to agree about the brolly  Febble   Oct-20-05 07:08 AM   #58 
              - Well I'd still be interested to know how many of the 1460  Bill Bored   Oct-21-05 01:44 AM   #70 
                 - Quick and incomplete response  Febble   Oct-21-05 02:46 AM   #72 
                 - I think we're talking past each other.  Bill Bored   Oct-21-05 11:49 AM   #77 
                    - Well, maybe we are  Febble   Oct-21-05 12:43 PM   #78 
                       - I think it is important to say that uncounted overvotes cost Gore Florida.  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 06:21 PM   #85 
                       - Distraction? Quagmire is more like it!  Bill Bored   Oct-23-05 04:19 AM   #127 
                 - One of the rather tricky things the republicans are doing is changing,  Melissa G   Oct-22-05 11:03 PM   #123 
                    - Another factor: increasing the number of precincts per polling place.  kiwi_expat   Oct-23-05 12:20 AM   #124 
                    - Thanks kiwi! I'm concerned about strange variables creeping in that  Melissa G   Oct-23-05 12:26 AM   #125 
                    - Good point, Melissa  Febble   Oct-23-05 06:36 PM   #138 
  - umm, no one is claiming WHAT?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-19-05 07:41 AM   #19 
  - You need to muster more facts to support your case...  eomer   Oct-19-05 07:25 AM   #18 
  - Sorry Eomer, we seem to be talking past each other.  Febble   Oct-19-05 09:00 AM   #23 
     - Yes, I think we are talking past each other.  eomer   Oct-19-05 10:37 AM   #27 
        - You are right  Febble   Oct-19-05 10:54 AM   #28 
           - Thanks, I need to ponder this a bit more.  eomer   Oct-19-05 11:28 AM   #29 
           - Hi Febble,In case you don't remember my lack of technical geekness  Melissa G   Oct-19-05 10:01 PM   #50 
           - This is around what i wanted to say about C..  Melissa G   Oct-19-05 10:48 PM   #52 
           - Melissa, I think there is some confusion here  Febble   Oct-20-05 07:01 AM   #57 
              - About FFF and FFFV which I could call Mitofsky's new plot but I prefer to  Melissa G   Oct-20-05 09:57 PM   #68 
                 - Thanks, Melissa  Febble   Oct-21-05 02:31 AM   #71 
                    - Febble, I'm not with you yet (and I'm headed in the wrong direction).  eomer   Oct-21-05 08:36 AM   #75 
                       - Your model will work  Febble   Oct-21-05 12:56 PM   #79 
           - Wait a minute  rdmccur   Oct-19-05 11:05 PM   #53 
              - TfC, Mellissa, Eomer, Bill, too  Febble   Oct-20-05 02:10 AM   #54 
                 - I need some  rdmccur   Oct-20-05 12:35 PM   #60 
                 - yes, you are quite right  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-20-05 02:39 PM   #61 
                 - I agree with OTOH  Febble   Oct-20-05 03:58 PM   #63 
                 - But Febble  Time for change   Oct-21-05 11:14 PM   #94 
                    - It's not an easy calculation  Febble   Oct-22-05 09:21 AM   #108 
                       - Ok, thank you. So half a million if random  Time for change   Oct-22-05 10:46 AM   #109 
                       - No  Febble   Oct-22-05 11:14 AM   #110 
                          - Yes, of course that's right, it would have had to have been targeted at  Time for change   Oct-22-05 01:59 PM   #111 
                             - Well, I think that is a good reason  Febble   Oct-22-05 03:01 PM   #112 
                                - Hi Febble, I wanna restate that I appreciate your care  Melissa G   Oct-22-05 04:05 PM   #115 
                                - Thanks, Melissa, again  Febble   Oct-22-05 04:46 PM   #118 
                                - I have two thoughts on this  Time for change   Oct-22-05 06:23 PM   #119 
                                - 6 of Ohio's 49 NEP precincts are in Cuyahoga (Cleveland)  kiwi_expat   Oct-22-05 07:43 PM   #121 
                                - Thank you for the link Febble  Time for change   Oct-23-05 12:38 PM   #134 
                                   - Damn  Febble   Oct-23-05 12:43 PM   #135 
                                      - Thank you -- got it and book-marked it  Time for change   Oct-23-05 03:03 PM   #137 
                       - a fiendishly complicated algorithm, ON THE MACHINES?  Bill Bored   Oct-23-05 04:38 AM   #128 
                          - Presumably that too  Febble   Oct-23-05 10:38 AM   #133 
  - Finally, a response to your response.  eomer   Nov-02-05 04:37 PM   #144 
     - OTOH and I have been working on similar lines  Febble   Nov-02-05 04:43 PM   #145 
     - The clearing up is almost done (thanks for asking)...  eomer   Nov-02-05 06:25 PM   #147 
        - Cool. I'd like a Prius  Febble   Nov-02-05 06:35 PM   #148 
           - Hmm... I've been out liberaled (bike beats hybrid, rock beats scissors,..  eomer   Nov-02-05 06:50 PM   #150 
     - it seems to me that with fraud variance that low  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-02-05 04:55 PM   #146 
        - Hey OTOH, how's it going?  eomer   Nov-02-05 06:45 PM   #149 
           - well, fair enough  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-02-05 07:21 PM   #151 
              - Let me rephrase that...  eomer   Nov-03-05 06:47 AM   #152 
                 - yours works if  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-03-05 07:40 AM   #153 
                    - Yes, that sounds like the right q to me.  eomer   Nov-03-05 08:48 AM   #154 
                       - here ya go  OnTheOtherHand   Nov-03-05 09:54 AM   #155 
  - K and R! Thanks!  bleever   Oct-18-05 08:33 PM   #12 
  - followup reporting on all this?  CalmMan   Oct-19-05 08:35 AM   #20 
  - Not just for Stats and Math fans  CalmMan   Oct-19-05 08:59 AM   #22 
     - Except stat and math fans?  Febble   Oct-19-05 09:02 AM   #25 
  - Thank you posting this Melissa  Time for change   Oct-19-05 12:06 PM   #30 
  - Your point #1....  anaxarchos   Oct-19-05 12:46 PM   #31 
  - Ok, that makes sense -- but are you sure that was his point?  Time for change   Oct-19-05 01:00 PM   #32 
     - 2 Points...  anaxarchos   Oct-19-05 01:40 PM   #33 
     - I agree it's not small  Time for change   Oct-19-05 02:58 PM   #36 
     - Not to belabor this but...  anaxarchos   Oct-19-05 08:43 PM   #46 
        - Ok then, can you tell me what you estimate to be the total net loss of  Time for change   Oct-20-05 07:57 AM   #59 
           - A reasonable number would be 1.8 to 2.0 million votes...  anaxarchos   Oct-20-05 03:37 PM   #62 
              - Ok, I get something close to that  Time for change   Oct-20-05 09:38 PM   #67 
                 - The Gore Florida "votes" from 2000 are all based...  anaxarchos   Oct-20-05 10:49 PM   #69 
                    - Well, thanks anax  Febble   Oct-21-05 02:52 AM   #73 
                    - We have agreed on one point...  anaxarchos   Oct-22-05 01:45 AM   #97 
                       - No Nobel Peace Prize expected  Febble   Oct-22-05 07:45 AM   #106 
                       - OK, having paused  Febble   Oct-22-05 09:06 AM   #107 
                          - Honest answer...  anaxarchos   Oct-22-05 03:08 PM   #113 
                             - From the bottom up  Febble   Oct-22-05 03:38 PM   #114 
                                - We have just shifted again...  anaxarchos   Oct-22-05 04:27 PM   #116 
                                   - Sorry,  Febble   Oct-22-05 04:41 PM   #117 
                                      - Actually, quite the opposite...  anaxarchos   Oct-22-05 06:25 PM   #120 
                                      - Well I need your argument  Febble   Oct-23-05 03:49 AM   #126 
                                      - I posted a bad link  Febble   Oct-23-05 01:13 PM   #136 
                                      - Really Febble,  anaxarchos   Oct-23-05 11:29 PM   #139 
                                      - I have patience to spare.  Febble   Oct-24-05 08:59 AM   #142 
                       - re. "The Game"  kiwi_expat   Oct-22-05 08:14 PM   #122 
                          - Do you mean  Febble   Oct-23-05 07:46 AM   #129 
                          - I meant popular votes - but I would also say that about Electoral votes if  kiwi_expat   Oct-23-05 08:09 AM   #130 
                             - OK  Febble   Oct-23-05 08:25 AM   #131 
                                - Please see the comment I added, on edit ,to post #130. n/t  kiwi_expat   Oct-23-05 08:39 AM   #132 
                          - Looking at the Survey questions, eh?  anaxarchos   Oct-24-05 12:43 AM   #140 
                             - Possible 5 million fundamentalists voted Gore2000 and Bush2004 ??  kiwi_expat   Oct-24-05 08:12 AM   #141 
                                - More realistic: 2.4 million fundamentalists voted Gore2000 and Bush2004  kiwi_expat   Oct-24-05 08:41 PM   #143 
                    - I certainly agree with your main points  Time for change   Oct-21-05 10:00 AM   #76 
                       - Minor points...  anaxarchos   Oct-21-05 12:58 PM   #80 
                          - This is what I don't understand  Time for change   Oct-21-05 02:11 PM   #83 
                             - We may be drifting "off topic"...  anaxarchos   Oct-21-05 03:12 PM   #84 
                             - As you say, the Miami Herald's recount was only of UNDER votes.  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 06:40 PM   #86 
                                - I know that Gore did much better with the over-votes than under-votes  Time for change   Oct-21-05 09:38 PM   #89 
                                   - Here is the entire Gainesville Sun article  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 11:00 PM   #92 
                                      - Very interesting -- thank you  Time for change   Oct-21-05 11:10 PM   #93 
                                         - The only over votes that could have been included in the vote count...  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 11:23 PM   #95 
                                            - Actually the NORC study found that ...  yowzayowzayowza   Oct-22-05 01:47 AM   #98 
                                            - Gore narrowly won all legally-acceptable overvotes scenarios.  kiwi_expat   Oct-22-05 07:34 AM   #103 
                                            - That may be but  Time for change   Oct-22-05 07:40 AM   #104 
     - And there is Jim Knapp's  Febble   Oct-19-05 05:09 PM   #41 
     - I don't believe he is using this single point to account for other than  Melissa G   Oct-19-05 01:44 PM   #34 
     - Ok, that makes sense n/t  Time for change   Oct-19-05 02:49 PM   #35 
     - But what's wrong with  Febble   Oct-19-05 04:16 PM   #39 
        - I agree most definitely  Time for change   Oct-19-05 09:11 PM   #49 
  - it seems ready made for the internet  foo_bar   Oct-19-05 04:44 PM   #40 
  - great post -- a note on Republican governors  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-19-05 05:51 PM   #42 
  - Are you saying that Freeman misclassified the party of  Time for change   Oct-19-05 08:39 PM   #45 
     - actually, I think probably not, but I still can't replicate the result  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-20-05 06:31 AM   #56 
        - Secretary of state is generally appointed by the governor ..no?  Melissa G   Oct-21-05 11:42 PM   #96 
  - The internet?  Time for change   Oct-19-05 09:04 PM   #48 
     - the presentation seems to be geared towards the internet  foo_bar   Oct-20-05 04:54 PM   #64 
        - Thank you for the voter complaint data  Time for change   Oct-20-05 09:21 PM   #66 
           - How was the weather in the North East on Election Day? n/t  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 07:55 AM   #74 
           - Well the interesting thing  Febble   Oct-21-05 01:05 PM   #81 
           - I have never understood "shyer in partisan territory" hypotheses.  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 06:50 PM   #87 
              - the respondents don't know it's confidential yet  foo_bar   Oct-22-05 03:01 AM   #100 
              - And too many Birkenstocks  Febble   Oct-22-05 07:21 AM   #102 
                 - .... especially if the interviewers wear Birkenstocks too. n/t  kiwi_expat   Oct-22-05 07:42 AM   #105 
              - I don't know.  Febble   Oct-22-05 07:20 AM   #101 
           - heavy reading  foo_bar   Oct-22-05 02:16 AM   #99 
  - quick note on paper ballots  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-19-05 08:01 PM   #43 
     - Ok, not enough power to give statistical significance to paper ballots  Time for change   Oct-19-05 08:38 PM   #44 
        - Yes! this is what I wa s trying to say about C in Febble and Eomer's  Melissa G   Oct-19-05 10:40 PM   #51 
        - yes, all these things (pretty much)  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-20-05 06:07 AM   #55 
  - ***179,000*** SPOILED BALLOTS --- Why understate our case?  autorank   Oct-21-05 01:53 PM   #82 
     - Consortium recount showed (net) 46,000 spoiled ballots favoured Gore.  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 07:18 PM   #88 
        - along with the 50,000 Floridians pulled from the voting rolls by "felon  autorank   Oct-21-05 10:02 PM   #90 
           - The 46,000 are a sub-set of the 179,000.  kiwi_expat   Oct-21-05 10:53 PM   #91 
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC