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Reply #69: The Gore Florida "votes" from 2000 are all based... [View All]

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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-20-05 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #67
69. The Gore Florida "votes" from 2000 are all based...

... on given criteria for determining the "intent of the voter". There were many more "spoiled ballots" which did not meet any given set of criteria ("one hanging and one indented chad", etc.) and still others for which intent is not discernable at all. The intention of the voter is deduced by demographics and thus has no bearing on the election.

On your second "point", if you prefer the term "apparent blue shift", be my guest. The issue is still as I described it. Febble is exactly right on this point. This has been going on for years. As long as there has been research on this topic, the non-random nature of "spoilage" has been understood (you can follow the references back from what I cited). It has "appeared" in political "lore" well before that. In certain states (primarily but not exclusively Southern), the spoilage rate has often been twice what we just described.

Now, you can take many different positions on the exit polls. You can take the position that they have been relatively accurate despite this obvious source of error (in which case, eliminating it creates an "apparent blue shift") or you can take the position that exit polls have "always favored" Democrats (and this is why?) and this time they were "remarkably accurate" in areas in which "spoilage" was dramatically reduced or you can adopt yet another position. I am merely "avoiding controversy" because I have not looked at the issue.

Whatever position you take, my question remains the same: Where is my "apparent blue-shift"?



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