Reply #67: Ok, I get something close to that

[Time for change]

Using your figures, and assuming 2 million spoiled votes (which I won't argue with) I get a plurality of 1.15 million for Kerry. So, that's about 1%. But didn't the Florida 2000 count of spoiled ballots come up with a ratio for Gore that was quite a bit less than that?

With regard to the other point, the amount of red or blue shift isn't based on expectations, but rather the difference between the exit poll and the official count, regardless of what the expectations were.