Democratic Underground - consensual correction

Reply #85: consensual correction [View All]

OnTheOtherHand

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Oct-21-05 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #45

85. consensual correction

kiwi and I have conferred and agree that Cincinnati 4M was 68% Kerry in the exit poll, 40% Kerry in the count, for a WPE of approximately -56 (subject to slight rounding error) -- not -28, because WPE is calculated on the margin, not the vote share. For people marking their ESI scatterplot scorecards at home, that is the point at lower left on ESI Figure 3 (where the scale is vote share, not WPE).

-Plausible deniability & Election eTheft

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-16-05 03:45 PM

- The only hope we have is to create a spread so wide that any

rzemanfl

Oct-16-05 03:58 PM

- I agree.

mirandaod

Oct-16-05 04:10 PM

- My thought is that all the people who intend to vote Democratic

rzemanfl

Oct-16-05 06:51 PM

#21

- How is it that we've come to this?

Der Blaue Engel

Oct-16-05 04:13 PM

- Yes, but once the Dems get subpoena power, etc. won't the fraud

rzemanfl

Oct-16-05 06:46 PM

#20

- There will be no spread wide enough

GuvWurld

Oct-16-05 05:30 PM

#16

- I would have submitted to you...

Blue Shark

Oct-18-05 09:57 PM

#44

- bingo yowzayowzayowza; E-fraud or Glitch Switch; the media will never know

Land Shark

Oct-18-05 10:45 PM

#46

- Until somebody in on the scam comes forward it's all speculation:

Stevepol

Oct-16-05 04:00 PM

- well, since you ask

Febble

Oct-16-05 04:14 PM

- why can't they both be wrong?

foo_bar

Oct-16-05 05:01 PM

#11

- Careful!

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-16-05 05:05 PM

#12

- Actually, I think we are at the stage

Febble

Oct-16-05 05:58 PM

#19

- Wait a minute, what's the difference between

Bill Bored

Oct-17-05 06:30 PM

#27

- Read my lips

Febble

Oct-17-05 06:54 PM

#28

- sElection 2k eTheft switch oops ...

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-17-05 07:33 PM

#29

- Yes but this was a 14% undervote rate!

Bill Bored

Oct-17-05 11:13 PM

#31

- Man o man.

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-18-05 01:54 AM

#37

- Let me get this straight...

Bill Bored

Oct-17-05 11:02 PM

#30

- Well, I have to say

Febble

Oct-18-05 01:46 AM

#36

- OK, let's step back for a moment, shall we?

Bill Bored

Oct-18-05 03:17 AM

#38

- Well, sort of

Febble

Oct-18-05 03:38 AM

#39

- But what are we trying to prove?

Bill Bored

Oct-18-05 12:46 PM

#40

- OK

Febble

Oct-18-05 04:18 PM

#41

- I didn't say they were impossible did I?

Bill Bored

Oct-18-05 07:38 PM

#43

- OK Bill

Febble

Oct-19-05 09:41 AM

#48

- Regarding outliers: anecdotal evidence might be useful.

kiwi_expat

Oct-18-05 06:58 PM

#42

- The big WPE for Cincy4M was probably not the result of rBr, per se.

kiwi_expat

Oct-18-05 10:17 PM

#45

- consensual correction

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-21-05 03:43 PM

#85

- I'm afraid I used the term "sampling bias" incorrectly.

kiwi_expat

Oct-19-05 07:08 AM

#47

- I think it could be right either way, depending...

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-19-05 09:41 AM

#49

- Really?

BeFree

Oct-19-05 10:40 AM

#50

- Do you think we might

Febble

Oct-19-05 11:04 AM

#51

- Deleted message

Name removed

Oct-19-05 11:54 AM

#52

- The "early" data

Febble

Oct-19-05 12:14 PM

#53

- Accuse?

BeFree

Oct-19-05 12:22 PM

#54

- Well, I try to tell the truth as I see it

Febble

Oct-19-05 12:37 PM

#55

- I couldn't agree more, Febble

BeFree

Oct-20-05 07:52 AM

#64

- Well, see my post below

Febble

Oct-20-05 08:51 AM

#67

- I'm sure we appreciate the advice

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-19-05 01:04 PM

#58

- You're welcome

BeFree

Oct-20-05 07:19 AM

#62

- No, there was no audit

Febble

Oct-20-05 07:50 AM

#63

- your facts are still confused, as far as I can tell

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-20-05 08:08 AM

#65

- OTOH

BeFree

Oct-20-05 08:50 AM

#66

- The people who commissioned the exit poll

Febble

Oct-20-05 08:56 AM

#68

- hmm...

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-20-05 11:04 AM

#69

- that's pretty Raw

BeFree

Oct-20-05 06:16 PM

#70

- nope, sorry, still wrong

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-20-05 06:34 PM

#71

- Almost certainly weighted?

BeFree

Oct-20-05 07:36 PM

#73

- the national surveys? certainly weighted

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-20-05 08:01 PM

#74

- Ah, yes, the midday data

BeFree

Oct-20-05 08:24 PM

#75

- no, the midday data were almost certainly weighted

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-21-05 05:24 AM

#76

- Adjustments, weightings, program errors

BeFree

Oct-21-05 07:25 AM

#77

- I quote Freeman here

BeFree

Oct-21-05 08:02 AM

#78

- not an iota of support for your use of "raw" and "weighted"

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-21-05 08:35 AM

#79

- I don't need support

BeFree

Oct-21-05 09:16 AM

#80

- how can you sway people if you insist on using your own terms?

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-21-05 10:13 AM

#81

- Are you referring to the term 'RAW'

BeFree

Oct-21-05 10:37 AM

#82

- Forget the terms

Febble

Oct-21-05 11:10 AM

#83

- Is that right?

BeFree

Oct-21-05 06:21 PM

#86

- And furthermore...

BeFree

Oct-21-05 06:50 PM

#87

- Actually I don't

Febble

Oct-21-05 07:18 PM

#88

- Here ya go & edited

BeFree

Oct-21-05 07:59 PM

#90

- OK

Febble

Oct-22-05 03:50 AM

#91

- well, it depends on the context

OnTheOtherHand

Oct-21-05 12:15 PM

#84

- In answer to your last question

Febble

Oct-20-05 06:37 PM

#72

- Thanks! Here is my little list of possible contributions to a WPE.

kiwi_expat

Oct-19-05 08:28 PM

#59

- Well, I think they both CAN be wrong,

Febble

Oct-16-05 05:15 PM

#15

- Thank you for discussing DRE fraud *vs.* tabulator(GEMS) fraud!

kiwi_expat

Oct-16-05 04:39 PM

- Naw, naw.

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-16-05 04:48 PM

- I have always wondered why a DRE paper trail couldn't be rigged also.

kiwi_expat

Oct-16-05 05:34 PM

#17

- And me.

Febble

Oct-16-05 05:40 PM

#18

- The term "paper trail" does...

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-16-05 11:05 PM

#24

- I'm rooting for the 'Stros and here's why:

Bill Bored

Oct-17-05 11:20 PM

#32

- So how does...

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-18-05 12:09 AM

#33

- And by playing games with new technology - not stealing votes - but

applegrove

Oct-16-05 04:41 PM

- I know what ya mean.

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-16-05 04:51 PM

#10

- Get your "little speech" ready for the bully matron "rule-maker" you

applegrove

Oct-16-05 05:13 PM

#13

- I agree with your basic premise but may quibble with some details.

eomer

Oct-16-05 04:49 PM

- The difference between...

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-16-05 05:13 PM

#14

- Tabulators...Diebold Plausible Deniability

autorank

Oct-18-05 12:31 AM

#34

- Innovative?

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-18-05 01:34 AM

#35

- Contrarian gibberish.

BeFree

Oct-16-05 07:52 PM

#22

- No Way!

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-16-05 10:51 PM

#23

- Cow Bell.

btmlndfrmr

Oct-17-05 04:54 PM

#25

- Agree completely.

Bill Bored

Oct-17-05 06:17 PM

#26

- Thank you yowza -- it seems that this contains some important clues, but

Time for change

Oct-19-05 12:49 PM

#56

- Oh, wait a minute -- maybe I get it from reading some other posts

Time for change

Oct-19-05 12:55 PM

#57

- Two points:

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-20-05 12:46 AM

#60

- yowza(x3) explains his use of the term "paper trail" in post #24

kiwi_expat

Oct-20-05 02:12 AM

#61

- FYI: Even tho I'm obviously not privy to ...

yowzayowzayowza

Oct-21-05 07:55 PM

#89

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Reply #85: consensual correction [View All]