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kiwi_expat
(526 posts)
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Tue Oct-18-05 07:58 PM Response to Reply #40 |
| 42. Regarding outliers: anecdotal evidence might be useful. |
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"Sampling bias" can seem an abstract concept unless you have seen it in action.
Liam_laddie has reported that he interviewed a couple of Democratic Party Poll Observers from Cincinnati 4M. (Of the Ohio NEP polls we have been able to identify, Cincy4m has the biggest WPE. But it does not have the biggest WPE of all the Ohio NEP polls.) According to the observers, the NEP interviewer at Cincy4m was totally out of his depth. He managed to conduct 31 interviews out of the 1754 voters (times 2, because they went by him twice) fanning in/out from the polling place (the polling place held 4 precincts). It was raining and he was stationed 100 feet away from the door, in a group of campaigners who were vying with each other for the attention of voters entering the polling place. The observers said that "Republican types" just streamed by him. They didn't refuse to be interviewed. They didn't even notice him. Maybe the guy was able to note the age, gender and ethnicity of every Nth person in the fanned mob, but I doubt it very much. He was totally discouraged, took several long breaks and went home early. |
| Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
 Plausible deniability & Election eTheft |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-16-05 04:45 PM | #0 |
 
The only hope we have is to create a spread so wide that any |
rzemanfl | Oct-16-05 04:58 PM | #1 |
I agree. |
mirandaod | Oct-16-05 05:10 PM | #3 |
My thought is that all the people who intend to vote Democratic |
rzemanfl | Oct-16-05 07:51 PM | #21 |
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How is it that we've come to this? |
Der Blaue Engel | Oct-16-05 05:13 PM | #4 |
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Yes, but once the Dems get subpoena power, etc. won't the fraud |
rzemanfl | Oct-16-05 07:46 PM | #20 |
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There will be no spread wide enough |
GuvWurld | Oct-16-05 06:30 PM | #16 |
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I would have submitted to you... |
Blue Shark | Oct-18-05 10:57 PM | #44 |
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bingo yowzayowzayowza; E-fraud or Glitch Switch; the media will never know |
Land Shark | Oct-18-05 11:45 PM | #46 |
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Until somebody in on the scam comes forward it's all speculation: |
Stevepol | Oct-16-05 05:00 PM | #2 |
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well, since you ask |
Febble | Oct-16-05 05:14 PM | #5 |
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why can't they both be wrong? |
foo_bar | Oct-16-05 06:01 PM | #11 |
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Careful! |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-16-05 06:05 PM | #12 |
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Actually, I think we are at the stage |
Febble | Oct-16-05 06:58 PM | #19 |
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Wait a minute, what's the difference between |
Bill Bored | Oct-17-05 07:30 PM | #27 |
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Read my lips |
Febble | Oct-17-05 07:54 PM | #28 |
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sElection 2k eTheft switch oops ... |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-17-05 08:33 PM | #29 |
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Yes but this was a 14% undervote rate! |
Bill Bored | Oct-18-05 12:13 AM | #31 |
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Man o man. |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-18-05 02:54 AM | #37 |
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Let me get this straight... |
Bill Bored | Oct-18-05 12:02 AM | #30 |
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Well, I have to say |
Febble | Oct-18-05 02:46 AM | #36 |
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OK, let's step back for a moment, shall we? |
Bill Bored | Oct-18-05 04:17 AM | #38 |
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Well, sort of |
Febble | Oct-18-05 04:38 AM | #39 |
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But what are we trying to prove? |
Bill Bored | Oct-18-05 01:46 PM | #40 |
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OK |
Febble | Oct-18-05 05:18 PM | #41 |
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I didn't say they were impossible did I? |
Bill Bored | Oct-18-05 08:38 PM | #43 |
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OK Bill |
Febble | Oct-19-05 10:41 AM | #48 |
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Regarding outliers: anecdotal evidence might be useful. |
kiwi_expat | Oct-18-05 07:58 PM | #42 |
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The big WPE for Cincy4M was probably not the result of rBr, per se. |
kiwi_expat | Oct-18-05 11:17 PM | #45 |
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consensual correction |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-21-05 04:43 PM | #85 |
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I'm afraid I used the term "sampling bias" incorrectly. |
kiwi_expat | Oct-19-05 08:08 AM | #47 |
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I think it could be right either way, depending... |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-19-05 10:41 AM | #49 |
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Really? |
BeFree | Oct-19-05 11:40 AM | #50 |
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Do you think we might |
Febble | Oct-19-05 12:04 PM | #51 |
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Deleted message |
Name removed | Oct-19-05 12:54 PM | #52 |
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The "early" data |
Febble | Oct-19-05 01:14 PM | #53 |
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Accuse? |
BeFree | Oct-19-05 01:22 PM | #54 |
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Well, I try to tell the truth as I see it |
Febble | Oct-19-05 01:37 PM | #55 |
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I couldn't agree more, Febble |
BeFree | Oct-20-05 08:52 AM | #64 |
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Well, see my post below |
Febble | Oct-20-05 09:51 AM | #67 |
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I'm sure we appreciate the advice |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-19-05 02:04 PM | #58 |
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You're welcome |
BeFree | Oct-20-05 08:19 AM | #62 |
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No, there was no audit |
Febble | Oct-20-05 08:50 AM | #63 |
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your facts are still confused, as far as I can tell |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-20-05 09:08 AM | #65 |
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OTOH |
BeFree | Oct-20-05 09:50 AM | #66 |
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The people who commissioned the exit poll |
Febble | Oct-20-05 09:56 AM | #68 |
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hmm... |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-20-05 12:04 PM | #69 |
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that's pretty Raw |
BeFree | Oct-20-05 07:16 PM | #70 |
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nope, sorry, still wrong |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-20-05 07:34 PM | #71 |
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Almost certainly weighted? |
BeFree | Oct-20-05 08:36 PM | #73 |
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the national surveys? certainly weighted |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-20-05 09:01 PM | #74 |
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Ah, yes, the midday data |
BeFree | Oct-20-05 09:24 PM | #75 |
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no, the midday data were almost certainly weighted |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-21-05 06:24 AM | #76 |
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Adjustments, weightings, program errors |
BeFree | Oct-21-05 08:25 AM | #77 |
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I quote Freeman here |
BeFree | Oct-21-05 09:02 AM | #78 |
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not an iota of support for your use of "raw" and "weighted" |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-21-05 09:35 AM | #79 |
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I don't need support |
BeFree | Oct-21-05 10:16 AM | #80 |
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how can you sway people if you insist on using your own terms? |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-21-05 11:13 AM | #81 |
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Are you referring to the term 'RAW' |
BeFree | Oct-21-05 11:37 AM | #82 |
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Forget the terms |
Febble | Oct-21-05 12:10 PM | #83 |
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Is that right? |
BeFree | Oct-21-05 07:21 PM | #86 |
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And furthermore... |
BeFree | Oct-21-05 07:50 PM | #87 |
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Actually I don't |
Febble | Oct-21-05 08:18 PM | #88 |
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Here ya go & edited |
BeFree | Oct-21-05 08:59 PM | #90 |
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OK |
Febble | Oct-22-05 04:50 AM | #91 |
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well, it depends on the context |
OnTheOtherHand | Oct-21-05 01:15 PM | #84 |
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In answer to your last question |
Febble | Oct-20-05 07:37 PM | #72 |
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Thanks! Here is my little list of possible contributions to a WPE. |
kiwi_expat | Oct-19-05 09:28 PM | #59 |
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Well, I think they both CAN be wrong, |
Febble | Oct-16-05 06:15 PM | #15 |
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Thank you for discussing DRE fraud *vs.* tabulator(GEMS) fraud! |
kiwi_expat | Oct-16-05 05:39 PM | #6 |
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Naw, naw. |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-16-05 05:48 PM | #8 |
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I have always wondered why a DRE paper trail couldn't be rigged also. |
kiwi_expat | Oct-16-05 06:34 PM | #17 |
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And me. |
Febble | Oct-16-05 06:40 PM | #18 |
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The term "paper trail" does... |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-17-05 12:05 AM | #24 |
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I'm rooting for the 'Stros and here's why: |
Bill Bored | Oct-18-05 12:20 AM | #32 |
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So how does... |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-18-05 01:09 AM | #33 |
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And by playing games with new technology - not stealing votes - but |
applegrove | Oct-16-05 05:41 PM | #7 |
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I know what ya mean. |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-16-05 05:51 PM | #10 |
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Get your "little speech" ready for the bully matron "rule-maker" you |
applegrove | Oct-16-05 06:13 PM | #13 |
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I agree with your basic premise but may quibble with some details. |
eomer | Oct-16-05 05:49 PM | #9 |
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The difference between... |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-16-05 06:13 PM | #14 |
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Tabulators...Diebold Plausible Deniability |
autorank | Oct-18-05 01:31 AM | #34 |
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Innovative? |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-18-05 02:34 AM | #35 |
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Contrarian gibberish. |
BeFree | Oct-16-05 08:52 PM | #22 |
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No Way! |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-16-05 11:51 PM | #23 |
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Cow Bell. |
btmlndfrmr | Oct-17-05 05:54 PM | #25 |
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Agree completely. |
Bill Bored | Oct-17-05 07:17 PM | #26 |
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Thank you yowza -- it seems that this contains some important clues, but |
Time for change | Oct-19-05 01:49 PM | #56 |
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Oh, wait a minute -- maybe I get it from reading some other posts |
Time for change | Oct-19-05 01:55 PM | #57 |
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Two points: |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-20-05 01:46 AM | #60 |
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yowza(x3) explains his use of the term "paper trail" in post #24 |
kiwi_expat | Oct-20-05 03:12 AM | #61 |
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FYI: Even tho I'm obviously not privy to ... |
yowzayowzayowza | Oct-21-05 08:55 PM | #89 |
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