Reply #141: To you, every statistic "sloshes" around except your 600-sample NES.

[TruthIsAll]

"But I don't quite grasp the premise of your argument, and I don't agree with the conclusion, and I'm not sure how to clear things up concisely. Part of the problem is that party ID is even fuzzier than recalled vote choice. People's party IDs slosh around (mostly people moving in and out of the "independent" category -- and I imagine that there is slosh depending on the context, as well as the question wording). From the NES panel, it appears that the Democrats lost some ground to the Republicans mostly as a result of former "I"s becoming "R"s -- but the evidence is weak, and the concept is fuzzy, and besides, this conversation is too depressing already".

This is a classic case of logic thrown on its head to support an untenable argument. This is truly Bush/Rovespeak.

Kerry won the female vote big time - 54-46, just as Clinton and Gore did.

The Party-Id split stayed constant at 38/35/27. It was 39/35/26 in the prior three elections.

There were 21 million new voters - overwhelming for Kerry.

There were 3 million Nader voters - overwhelming for Kerry.

There was widespread disenchantment with Bush from moderate Republicans.

There was widespread hatred of Bush on the part of Gore voters who saw the election stolen from them in broad daylight.

There was widespread hatred of Bush on the part of minorities and others who saw 170,000 punch cards spoiled (double-punched and under-punched) in FL 2000.

AND TO TOP IT OFF, BUSH LOST THE LAST TIME BY 540,000 VOTES (OFFICIAL). BUT UNOFFICIALLY, IT WAS BY MUCH MORE THAN THAT. OVER 3 MILLION VOTES WERE SPOILED IN HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC PRECINCTS.

You reject all of this and you low-ball the final exit poll which matched the Bush vote and blame it all on false recall, based on an obscure 600 sample. ANAXARCHOS got you on that one.

From now on, TOTAL RECALL on the part of DUers will remember the sheer arrogance of your argument.

You are reduced to reiterating your relentless mind-boggling rationale.

Unfortunately, the 43/37 Bush/Gore split was your Waterloo.