At AAPOR, ESI says Ohio exit polls do not necessarily indicate fraud

[eomer]

2004 Ohio Exit Polls and Election Results

State: Ohio County:

Author(s): Dr. Fritz Scheuren Date: 05-14-2005

Summary: The attached presentation was delivered during the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers Plenary session on Saturday May 14, 2005 as part of a larger session on the 2004 exit polls, with Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky Int'l and Kathy Frankovic of CBS News. Dr. Scheuren's analysis confirms pollster Warren Mitofsky’s assertion that the exit polls that put John Kerry ahead of George Bush in Ohio on Election Day 2004 do not necessarily indicate that there was fraud in the Ohio election.

Slide delivering ESI conclusion that Ohio exit polls don't indicate fraud:

Where Are We Now?
• No Evidence that Ohio Exit Polls
• Predict Anything Unusual in Actuals
• Hence Unable to Sustain Fraud Verdict
• But What about Other Evidence?
• How about Election Results Themselves?
• Just Single Ohio County Example Given

http://www.electionscience.org/Members/StevenHertzberg/report.2005-05-14.4978140903/view?searchterm=None