Reply #67: I actually have not only read your paper...

[tommcintyre]

I printed it out, and critiqued/annotated it.

Taking EVERYTHING into consideration (the total "environment" in which this paper exists), I am leaning toward the concept of "red herring", rather than "straw man".

A red herring is defined as:

"Something that draws attention away from the central issue."
http://www.answers.com/topic/red-herring

"...an irrelevant or immaterial... issue."
http://www.legal-definitions.com/Q%20R/red-herring.htm

<word origin:>
"...drag a red herring across the trail to mislead the dogs.
http://www.wordorigins.org/wordorr.htm

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Whether it is your intention or not, support/promotion of the rBr "guess" fuels the Bush regime's attempt to create doubt that the exit poll discrepancy points to fraud - as, historically, it does.

Further, contrary to your statement from the post above: "I am not supporting the rBr."; the following statement from page 21 of your paper indicates otherwise:
"The pattern instead is consistent with the E-M hypothesis of “reluctant Bush responders”..."
http://www.geocities.com/lizzielid/WPEpaper.pdf

I think THAT is about the clearest declarative statement I've heard from you so far. ;)

And Febble, you can mince words all you want about the testability of rBr. The fact of the matter is you can only infer the validity of this hypothesis - you can NEVER verify it. Read below for more on this:

Experiments vs. Surveys
EXPERIMENTS
Collection of data from observations sampled from a population that are either treated or controlled by the experimenter. <Inducing the rr to reveal who they actually voted for would've been the best application of this idea - unfortunately, the time has past forevermore for this to be done.>
SURVEYS
Examination of a system already in operation <the data you are working with from E-M> in which the investigator does not have the opportunity to assign individuals to different conditions. <This ALL that can be done now, using inferential statistics.>
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Experiments vs. Surveys
Both are valid forms of analysis, but each
varies in approach and each has their
respective pitfalls and caveats.
- Surveys not as clear-cut as experiments.
- Experiments always preferred when possible.
- Surveys are useful for establishing patterns.
- Experiments must be used to verify patterns.

From:
"The Scientific Method & Basic Statistical Procedures"
http://www.plantbio.ohiou.edu/epb/instruct/quantmet/lectures/pdf/lec6.pdf

Since you can not EVER verify the rBr (since that time has past, and can never be recovered), the very idea is rendered moot.