Reply #15: Here is an analysis of numbers in Palm Beach County

[berniew1]

Palm Beach County
Registered Voters Dem Repub Other Total
2004 329232 233495 495342 729575

Official Turnout = 74.4%


2000 vote Percent; Registration increase 2000 to 2004
Dem 62.30% 40856 (8 times more new Dems)
Repub 35.30% 5064

Assume
same percent Dem & Rpub as 2000 & 74.4% turnout- with 5% higher TO
Kerry 301805 324531
Bush 171007 171007
Diff(D-R)130798 153524

Dems increase their percent of vote by 4% from 2000 with 5% higher Dem TO
Kerry 321182 345368
Bush 151629 151629
Diff 169553 193739


Official 2004 Vote **Swing = 14994 to 77935**
Kerry 327698
Bush 211894
Other 3243
D-R Diff 115804

Based on the data at the following webpage, I estimate the swing as about 50,000 in Palm Beach County. I did a detailed analysis by precinct that can be used to determine a similar result.

http://www.flcv.com/palmbeao.html