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The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B) [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-07-05 10:00 PM
Original message
The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B)
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Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 10:55 PM by TruthIsAll
National Exit Poll Time Line

Preliminary 1:  Nov. 2,  7:58pm, 11027 respondents
Preliminary 2:  Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 ""
Final 3:        Nov. 3,  2:04pm, 13660 ""

There was NO CHANGE IN THE AVERAGE OF THE WEIGHTED NATIONAL
PERCENTAGES after 2020 additional respondents were
interviewed between 7:58pm and 12:22am.

  Time Sample Bush  Kerry     Nader
 7:58pm 11027	47.91%	50.76%	1.14%
12:22am 13047	47.90%	50.76%	1.00%

But look what happens between 12:22am and 2:04pm (after just
613 additional respondents):
 2:04pm 13660	50.89%	48.04%	0.30%

Kerry gained in the Party ID split between 7:58pm and
12:22am, going from 38 Dem/36 Rep/26 Independent to 38 Dem/35
Rep/27 Independent (2020 respondents). The effect of this
slight change was to increase his national weighted average
from 50.24% to 50.69%.
 
 Time  Sample Bush Kerry	Nader
 7:58pm 11027	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%
12:22am 13047	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%

But the next day, the Party ID weights mysteriously changed
to 37/37/26 when the final 613 respondents were sampled -
quite a feat.
 2:04pm 13660	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Here's the progression of the exit poll tranformation from
Kerry to Bush, from left to right, literally and
figuratively.

From an initial 11,027 on CNN to a pristine 13,047 on WP to a
soiled 13660 on CNN.

	CNN	7:58pm	11027	Sample		WP	12:22am	13047	Sample	CNN	2:04pm	13660	Sample
     
	Mix1	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix2	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix3	Bush	Kerry	Nader
GENDER
Male 	46.0%	51%	47%	1%		46%	52%	47%	1%		46%	55%	44%	0
Female 	54.0%	45%	54%	1%		54%	45%	54%	1%		54%	48%	51%	0
	100%	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
														
EDUCATION														
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No H.S.	4.0%	47%	52%	1%		4%	47%	52%	1%		4%	49%	50%	0
HSGrad22.0%	48%	51%	1%		22%	48%	51%	1%		22%	52%	47%	0
Colleg31.0%	51%	47%	2%		31%	51%	47%	1%		32%	54%	46%	0
ColGrd 26.0%	50.5%	48.5%	1%		26%	50%	48%	1%		26%	52%	46%	1%
Postg	17.0%	40%	58%	2%		17%	40%	58%	2%		16%	44%	55%	1%
	100%	48.18%	50.34%	1.48%		100%	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%		100%	51.24%	47.82%	0.42%
																										
RACE AND
GENDER	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
WMale	36.0%	58%	41%	1%		36%	58%	41%	1%		36%	62%	37%	0%
WFem 41.0%	52%	47%	1%		41%	52%	47%	1%		41%	55%	44%	0%
NonWM 10.0%	29%	70%	1%		10%	28%	69%	1%		10%	30%	67%	1%
NonWF 13.0%	22%	77%	1%		13%	22%	77%	1%		12%	24%	75%	1%
	100%	47.96%	51.04%	1.00%		100%	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%		99%	50.75%	47.06%	0.22%
														
AGE	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
18-29 	17.0%	43%	56%	1%		17%	43%	56%	1%		17%	45%	54%	0
30-44 	27.0%	50%	49%	1%		27%	50%	49%	1%		29%	53%	46%	1%
45-59 	30.0%	47%	51%	2%		30%	47%	51%	1%		30%	51%	48%	0
60+ 	26.0%	51%	48%	1%		26%	51%	48%	1%		24%	54%	46%	0
	100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.30%		100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%		100%	51.28%	47.96%	0.29%
														
INCOME	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
0-$15K 	9.0%	33%	66%	1%		9%	33%	66%	1%		8%	36%	63%	0
$15-30 	15.0%	39%	59%	2%		15%	39%	59%	1%		15%	42%	57%	0
$30-50 	22.0%	47%	52%	1%		22%	47%	52%	1%		22%	49%	50%	0
50-75 	23.0%	53%	45%	2%		23%	53%	45%	1%		23%	56%	43%	0
-100 	13.0%	50%	49%	1%		13%	50%	49%	0%		14%	55%	45%	0
-150 	11.0%	53%	45%	2%		11%	53%	45%	2%		11%	57%	42%	1%
-200 	4.0%	53%	47%	0		4%	53%	47%	0%		4%	58%	42%	0
200+ 	4.0%	58%	41%	1%		4%	58%	41%	1%		3%	63%	35%	0
	101%	48.12%	51.42%	1.46%		101%	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%		100%	51.02%	48.13%	0.11%
														
														
IDEOLOGYMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Lib 	22.0%	12%	87%	1%		22%	12%	86%	1%		21%	13%	85%	1%
Mod 	45.0%	42%	57%	1%		45%	41%	57%	1%		45%	45%	54%	0
Con 	33.0%	82%	16%	1%		33%	82%	16%	1%		34%	84%	15%	0
	100%	48.60%	50.07%	1.00%		100%	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%		100%	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
														
RELIGIONMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Prot	53.0%	56%	43%	1%		53%	56%	43%	1%		53%	59%	40%	0
Cath 	27.0%	49%	50%	1%		27%	49%	50%	1%		27%	52%	47%	0
Jewish	3.0%	23%	77%	0		3%	23%	77%	0%		3%	25%	74%	0
Other 	7.0%	20%	75%	5%		7%	20%	75%	4%		7%	23%	74%	1%
None 	10.0%	29%	70%	1%		10%	29%	70%	1%		10%	31%	67%	1%
	100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.25%		100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%		100%	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%
														
														
MILITARYMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Yes 	18.0%	55%	43%	2%		18%	55%	43%	1%		18%	57%	41%	1%
No 	82.0%	46%	53%	1%		82%	46%	53%	1%		82%	49%	50%	1%
	100%	47.62%	51.20%	1.18%		100%	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%		100%	50.44%	48.38%	1.00%
														
														
WHEN
DECIDED	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Today 	6.0%	41%	54%	5%		6%	40%	53%	5%		5%	45%	52%	1%
3Days 3.0%	42%	54%	4%		3%	41%	53%	4%		4%	42%	55%	1%
Week 	2.0%	51%	48%	1%		2%	51%	48%	1%		2%	51%	48%	0
Month	10.0%	38%	61%	1%		10%	38%	60%	1%		10%	44%	54%	1%
Before79.0%	50%	50%	0%		79%	50%	50%	0%		79%	53%	46%	0%
	100%	48.04%	51.42%	0.54%		100%	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%		100%	51.22%	47.50%	0.19%
														
REGIONMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
East	22.0%	40%	58%	1%		22%	41%	58%	1%		22%	43%	56%	1%
Midwest	25.0%	49%	50%	1%		26%	49%	50%	1%		26%	51%	48%	0
South	31.0%	54%	45%	1%		31%	54%	44%	1%		32%	58%	42%	0
West	21.0%	45%	53%	1%		21%	45%	53%	1%		20%	49%	50%	1%
	99%	47.24%	50.34%	0.99%		100%	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%		100%	51.08%	48.24%	0.42%
														
														
PARTY
ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38.0%	9%	90%	1%		38%	9%	90%	1%		37%	11%	89%	0
Rep 	36.0%	92%	7%	1%		35%	92%	7%	0%		37%	93%	6%	0
Ind	26.0%	45%	52%	2%		27%	45%	52%	2%		26%	48%	49%	1%
	100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%		100%	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%		100%	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
														
														
VOTED IN
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.0%	39%	59%	1%		17%	39%	59%	1%		17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	38.0%	8%	91%	1%		38%	8%	91%	1%		37%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	41.0%	90%	9%	0%		41%	90%	9%	0%		43%	91%	9%	0%
Other	4.0%	13%	65%	16%		4%	13%	65%	16%		3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.26%



Exit Poll Comparison Summary

Poll   Bush	Kerry    Nader

Gender			
11027	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%
13047	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
13660	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
			
Education			
11027	48.18%	50.34%	1.48%
13047	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
13660	51.24%	47.82%	0.42%
			
Race/Gender			
11027	47.96%	51.04%	1.00%
13047	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
13660	50.75%	47.06%	0.22%
			
Age			
11027	48.17%	50.53%	1.30%
13047	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
13660	51.28%	47.96%	0.29%
			
Income			
11027	48.12%	51.42%	1.46%
13047	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%
13660	51.02%	48.13%	0.11%
			
			
Ideology			
11027	48.60%	50.07%	1.00%
13047	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
13660	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
			
			
Religion			
11027	47.90%	50.85%	1.25%
13047	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%
13660	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%
			
Military			
11027	47.62%	51.20%	1.18%
13047	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%
13660	50.44%	48.38%	1.00%
			
When Decided			
11027	48.04%	51.42%	0.54%
13047	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%
13660	51.22%	47.50%	0.19%
			
Region			
11027	47.24%	50.34%	0.99%
13047	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%
13660	51.08%	48.24%	0.42%
			
			
Party ID			
11027	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%
13047	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
13660	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
			
			
Voted in 2000			
11027	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
13047	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
13660	51.11%	48.48%	0.26%
			
Average			
11027	47.91%	50.76%	1.14%
13047	47.90%	50.76%	1.00%
13660	50.89%	48.04%	0.30%

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