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1996 NATIONAL EXIT POLL: JUST LIKE IN 2000, RIGHT ON THE MONEY [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-19-05 11:19 PM
Original message
1996 NATIONAL EXIT POLL: JUST LIKE IN 2000, RIGHT ON THE MONEY
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Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 11:43 PM by TruthIsAll
This is another nail in the coffin of those naysayers who
claim exit polls are never right. 

I have calculated the average weighted national percentages
for 12 exit poll demographics.

Clinton exit poll average was within 1.03% of his actual
vote. 
For Dole, it was closer: 0.46%
Perot was almost exact: 0.09%.

In 2000, Gore and Bush were each within 0.50%.

So what happened in 2004?
Kerry won the National Exit poll: 50.8% - 48.2%
Bush won the vote: 50.73% - 48.28%

That's a 2.5% deviation and the Margin of Error is 1.0%.

CATEG       Clinton     Dole   Perot				
Exit        48.17%	41.16%   8.49%					
Actual      49.20%	40.70%	  8.40%

Diff	       1.03%   0.46%   0.09%
										
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html							
Sample size: 16,359 / Updated: 11/06/96 11:49 a.m.							
							
CATEG	     Clinton	Dole	Perot				
Gender      48.72%     40.88% 8.44%				
Whites       43.20%	45.88%	9.44%				
Race	       48.76%	41.12%	8.34%				
Age	       48.85%	40.53%	8.69%				
Income	      48.89%	40.79%	7.45%				
PartyId	      48.74%	40.77%	8.46%				
1992Vote	48.75%	41.18%	8.16%				
Ideology	48.99%	41.14%	8.27%				
Education	49.02%	39.64%	9.41%				
Religion	48.22%	39.76%	9.23%				
w/oPerot 	47.77%	41.10%	7.45%				
Decided 	48.63%	39.97%	8.58%						
										
Average	      48.17%	41.16%	8.49%					
Actual	       49.20%	40.70%	8.40%							
										
			HORIZONTAL			VERTICAL				
Gender	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Men	48	43	44	10	42	52	57	20.64%	21.12%	4.80%
Women	52	54	38	7	58	48	43	28.08%	19.76%	3.64%
								48.72%	40.88%	8.44%
										
Whites
	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Men	48	38	49	11	42	51	57	18.24%	23.52%	5.28%
Women	52	48	43	8	58	49	43	24.96%	22.36%	4.16%
								43.20%	45.88%	9.44%
										
Race	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
White	83	43	46	9	73	93	90	35.69%	38.18%	7.47%
Blacks	10	84	12	4	17	3	4	8.40%	1.20%	0.40%
Hispan 5	72	21	6	7	2	3	3.60%	1.05%	0.30%
Asians	1	43	48	8	1	1	1	0.43%	0.48%	0.08%
Other	1	64	21	9	2	1	1	0.64%	0.21%	0.09%
								48.76%	41.12%	8.34%
										
Age	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
18-29	17	53	34	10	18	14	21	9.01%	5.78%	1.70%
30-44	33	48	41	9	32	33	34	15.84%	13.53%	2.97%
45-59	26	48	41	9	26	27	27	12.48%	10.66%	2.34%
60+	24	48	44	7	23	25	19	11.52%	10.56%	1.68%
								48.85%	40.53%	8.69%
										
Income	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot

<15k	 11	59	28	11	14	8	14	6.49%	3.08%	1.21%
15-30	23	53	36	9	25	20	24	12.19%	8.28%	2.07%
30-50	27	48	40	10	27	27	31	12.96%	10.80%	2.70%
50-75	21	47	45	7	20	23	17	9.87%	9.45%	1.47%
75-100	9	44	48	7	8	10	7	3.96%	4.32%	0.63%
100+	9	38	54	6	7	12	7	3.42%	4.86%	0.54%
							   48.89%	40.79%	7.45%
										
PtyID	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Dem	39.4	84	10	5	68	10	23	33.10%	3.94%	1.97%
Rep	34.7	13	80	6	9	68	24	4.51%	27.76%	2.08%
Ind	25.9	43	35	17	23	22	53	11.14%	9.07%	4.40%
							   48.74%	40.77%	8.46%
										
92Vote	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Clinton  43     85	9	4	75	10	22	36.55%	3.87%	1.72%
Bush     35     13	82	4	10	69	18	4.55%	28.70%	1.40%
Perot	   12     22	44	33	6	13	48	2.64%	5.28%	3.96%
Other     1     24	36	9	0	1	1	0.24%	0.36%	0.09%
No  	    9     53    33	11	9	7	11	4.77%	2.97%	0.99%
							      48.75%	41.18%	8.16%
										
Ideology	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Liberal	        20	    78	11	7	31	5	17	15.60%	2.20%	1.40%
Moderate	47	57	33	9	55	37	51	26.79%	15.51%	4.23%
Conservative	33	20	71	8	14	57	32	6.60%	23.43%	2.64%
								      48.99%	41.14%	8.27%
										
Education	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
No H.S. 	6	59	28	11	8	4	8	3.54%	1.68%	0.66%
H.S Grad	24	51	35	13	25	21	32	12.24%	8.40%	3.12%
College	         27 	48	40	10	27	27	29	12.96%	10.80%	2.70%
CollGrad	26	44	46	8	23	30	21	11.44%	11.96%	2.08%
Post-Grad	17	52	40	5	18	18	10	8.84%	6.80%	0.85%
								      49.02%	39.64%	9.41%
										
Religion	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Protestant	38	41	50	8	32	47	33	15.58%	19.00%	3.04%
Catholic	29	53	37	9	31	27	27	15.37%	10.73%	2.61%
OthChrist	16	45	41	12	15	17	21	7.20%	6.56%	1.92%
Jewish	        3	78	16	3	6	1	1	2.34%	0.48%	0.09%
Other            6	60	23	11	7	3	7	3.60%	1.38%	0.66%
None             7	59	23	13	9	4	11	4.13%	1.61%	0.91%
								      48.22%	39.76%	9.23%
										
w/oPerot
	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Clinton	50	91	3	5	93	4	30	45.50%	1.50%	2.50%
Dole	43	4	90	5	4	92	30	1.72%	38.70%	2.15%
NotVote5	11	18	56	1	2	36	0.55%	0.90%	2.80%
								47.77%	41.10%	7.45%
										
Decided
	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
3Days	11	35	38	22	8	11	28	3.85%	4.18%	2.42%
Week	6	35	47	17	4	7	12	2.10%	2.82%	1.02%
Month	13	47	36	13	12	11	19	6.11%	4.68%	1.69%
Before69	53	41	5	75	70	41	36.57%	28.29%	3.45%
							     48.63%	39.97%	8.58%
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  -1996 NATIONAL EXIT POLL: JUST LIKE IN 2000, RIGHT ON THE MONEY TruthIsAll  Feb-19-05 11:19 PM   #0 
  - who says exit polls are never right?  imenja   Feb-20-05 12:15 AM   #1 
  - Plenty of people.  Wilms   Feb-20-05 06:26 AM   #2 
  - the MSM take  imenja   Feb-20-05 12:38 PM   #5 
     - And the pressure  PATRICK   Feb-20-05 06:15 PM   #10 
        - THE POLL AVERAGES ARE EVEN MORE ACCURATE THAN CALCULATED ABOVE  TruthIsAll   Feb-21-05 09:34 AM   #16 
  - Mistwell says it all the time  davidgmills   Feb-20-05 06:58 AM   #3 
  - Where is he ....I'd like to here how this is a fluke.  Goldeneye   Feb-20-05 11:27 AM   #4 
  - They always say that!  NationalEnquirer   Feb-22-05 11:59 AM   #19 
  - "9/11 changed everything." Now, down is up and black is white,  bleever   Feb-20-05 12:54 PM   #6 
  - Yes, I think people are starved for the truth and have almost given up  Nothing Without Hope   Feb-20-05 02:19 PM   #8 
  - once we crack the PROPAGANDA machine, the country will learn! nt  Griffy   Feb-20-05 01:07 PM   #7 
  - Should have cracked it in 2000  PATRICK   Feb-22-05 09:40 AM   #18 
  - TIA, this is great. Where are important analyses like this one being kept?  Nothing Without Hope   Feb-20-05 02:26 PM   #9 
  - I would be happy to design a web page for ya TIA  helderheid   Feb-20-05 08:32 PM   #12 
     - Thanks, but I already have one - for the pre-election model.  TruthIsAll   Feb-20-05 09:20 PM   #14 
  - All these numbers confuse me...  super simian   Feb-20-05 06:57 PM   #11 
  - The 2000 exit polls predicted a Gore win...and he won.  TruthIsAll   Feb-20-05 09:17 PM   #13 
     - Thanks!  super simian   Feb-21-05 02:39 PM   #17 
  - Thanks for the reminder  keepthemhonest   Feb-21-05 08:56 AM   #15 
 

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