Reply #4: Answers

[TruthIsAll]

Graph 11 for displays each state poll MOE vs. the percentage deviation from the exit poll to the vote.

For example, if the state exit poll MOE is 2.5%, and the exit vote deviated from the vote by 3.0%, then that was a highly unlikely event, since there is a 95% chance that the vote would lie within + or -2.5% of the exit poll percentage.

Graph 7 compares Gore's state exit poll deviations to Kerry's.

Graph 9 show the deviations as a percentage from Kerry's exit poll to vote and the probability of the deviation to occur.

Graph 10 is a stacked bar chart which displays the state vote deviations from Kerry to Bush, based on the percentage deviations, for each machine type.

For example, if the state had 60% punched cards and 40% Optical scanners, and there was a 100,000 vote deviation, we assume for simplicity that 60,000 votes deviated to Bush from the punched cards and 40,000 from the scanners. Of course, this is just an estimate and can just as well be some other ratio. The point of the graph is two-fold:
1) To show the loss in Kerry votes, based on deviations from the exit polls and
2) To show the type and mix of the polling machines and paper ballots in each state.