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smartvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
69. Take a direct, simple approach:
Edited on Wed Jan-12-05 10:52 PM by smartvoter
Hit him with both Freeman and Morris stuff so he can see that experts on both sides disagree regarding the intent of the exit polls. Also, we have MANY articles cited out here describing that exit polls are used to detect election fraud. It's easy to prove that his premise is wrong, even if it's not so easy to prove the polls were right.
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  -Republican friend debunks Exit Polls - He says - What would you say? BamaBecky  Jan-12-05 07:29 PM   #0 
  - tell him he knows little about statistics and less about exit polls  papau   Jan-12-05 07:33 PM   #1 
  - As TIA has finally admitted  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 07:38 PM   #3 
     - You are twisting what TIA has written  DELUSIONAL   Jan-12-05 07:42 PM   #5 
     - I asked him which of the theories on why raw exit polls  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 07:48 PM   #9 
     - The Stats do not lie - but liars try to explain away the stats  papau   Jan-12-05 07:52 PM   #13 
     - Repukes are good at twisting  rdmccur   Jan-12-05 09:39 PM   #59 
     - Yes, that is the way he responds....  euler   Jan-12-05 11:53 PM   #75 
     - Skewed toward Dem can and should be interpreted as more GOP cheating  papau   Jan-12-05 07:47 PM   #7 
     - What do you mean it was not on the level of 6 million votes?  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 07:51 PM   #11 
     - The MOE of an exit poll allows for a million vote swing -your  papau   Jan-12-05 07:54 PM   #14 
        - Ok - you made me go and look up the numbers  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:12 PM   #23 
           - nope - I do not - but do share your links  papau   Jan-12-05 08:26 PM   #30 
              - here you go  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:33 PM   #33 
                 - Sorry - but you have not posted a link to exit polls that were in error  papau   Jan-12-05 09:49 PM   #60 
                    - My numbers came from  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 09:54 PM   #62 
                       - Unwieghted raw data proves nothing - learn a bit of sampling theory  papau   Jan-12-05 10:06 PM   #64 
                          - The data that TIA and all the other "exit polls are always accurate"  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 10:11 PM   #66 
                             - Well we agree as to the value of "Unweighted raw data proves nothing"  papau   Jan-12-05 10:21 PM   #67 
                                - First of all, we have no idea which data TIA is using -  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 10:43 PM   #68 
                                   - I agree :-)  papau   Jan-13-05 07:20 AM   #87 
     - Ooops!...the naysayers found a professional statistician...  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 08:06 PM   #20 
     - By sheerest coincidence--  eridani   Jan-13-05 06:19 AM   #84 
     - When do you think exit polls were  Lurker321   Jan-13-05 07:57 AM   #90 
     - Not in 1988  Mistwell   Jan-13-05 04:24 PM   #93 
        - Not polling stations, but electronic tabulators n/t  eridani   Jan-13-05 09:55 PM   #106 
           - Are you serious?  Mistwell   Jan-13-05 11:16 PM   #109 
              - Massive and/or grand isn't necessary to achieve the goal  eridani   Jan-14-05 04:23 AM   #110 
                 - Dude...it has to be massive  Mistwell   Jan-14-05 01:23 PM   #121 
     - There is nothing constructive in picking on TIA  Heath.Hunnicutt   Jan-13-05 04:43 PM   #95 
     - You twisted, I'll SHOUT. I admitted nothing. And you know it.  TruthIsAll   Jan-13-05 06:17 PM   #103 
     - Deleted message  Name removed   Jan-14-05 01:46 PM   #122 
  - ask him why Ukraine's exit polls were believable but ours our not  Skittles   Jan-12-05 07:36 PM   #2 
  - Ukrainian polls  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 07:40 PM   #4 
  - "Washington Monthly"  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 07:48 PM   #10 
  - Where in the post that you responded to  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 07:52 PM   #12 
     - YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 07:55 PM   #16 
        - Accidentally gave the wrong link  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:03 PM   #17 
           - That speaks a lot about your "credentials"!  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 08:04 PM   #18 
  - riiiiiiiiight  Skittles   Jan-12-05 07:55 PM   #15 
  - Are you disputing the numbers I gave?  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:05 PM   #19 
     - not answering my question  Skittles   Jan-12-05 08:20 PM   #27 
     - just as you're not addressing my point  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:24 PM   #29 
        - LOL, whatever  Skittles   Jan-12-05 08:28 PM   #31 
        - From what I understand  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:38 PM   #37 
           - wanted to see if you were a one-trick pony  Skittles   Jan-12-05 08:40 PM   #39 
        - There were reports of quite a bit of fraud  davidgmills   Jan-14-05 05:56 PM   #133 
     - Can you give me the REAL  Karenca   Jan-12-05 08:30 PM   #32 
        - screenname should say it all  Faye   Jan-12-05 08:34 PM   #34 
        - Ha, ha...Faye! (n/t)  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 08:35 PM   #35 
        - Hi Faye!  Karenca   Jan-12-05 08:40 PM   #38 
        - The REAL reason:  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:36 PM   #36 
           - there's lots of evidence to show the election was stolen  Skittles   Jan-12-05 08:43 PM   #40 
           - there were a lot of problems with this election  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:47 PM   #44 
              - actually, there is plenty of hard evidence  Skittles   Jan-12-05 08:51 PM   #46 
           - That's so funny that you try to correct that....  Karenca   Jan-12-05 08:43 PM   #42 
           - Ha, ha...Karen! (n/t)  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 08:46 PM   #43 
           - It may have been a "known fact" to you -  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 08:49 PM   #45 
              - You saw ours already ........... over and over again....  Karenca   Jan-12-05 08:56 PM   #47 
              - Well, yes, I am kinda hoping that presentation of  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 09:04 PM   #51 
                 - Talk about stupid assumptions..  davidgmills   Jan-14-05 06:07 PM   #136 
              - maybe i need to copy & paste, but: you are wasting your time  Faye   Jan-12-05 08:58 PM   #48 
                 - of course there is other evidence,  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 09:06 PM   #53 
                    - a test for you  zapped 1   Jan-15-05 03:49 PM   #151 
                    - Re: Keep trying to correct misinformation about exit polls  davidgmills   Jan-16-05 08:52 AM   #158 
           - you have yet to post a link to the exit poll data you say was wrong  papau   Jan-12-05 09:54 PM   #61 
              - I did now - and do you expect that your posts will be answered  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 09:56 PM   #63 
                 - Good point - and it is time for bed! :-) But the point as to exit poll  papau   Jan-12-05 10:08 PM   #65 
  - And here's the data from the 04 Presidential race  Time for change   Jan-14-05 04:35 PM   #127 
  - Senate resolution concerning Ukraine based in part on exit polls  Danish Reporter   Jan-13-05 12:09 AM   #76 
  - I will......thanks  BamaBecky   Jan-13-05 06:01 AM   #82 
  - whether the exit polls were wrong or right  Faye   Jan-12-05 07:47 PM   #6 
  - He said "this" about......"all that"........as Seinfeld would say  BamaBecky   Jan-13-05 06:13 AM   #83 
  - Two things:  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 07:47 PM   #8 
  - I don't have any Repuke friends either!...Ick!! ....nt  Karenca   Jan-12-05 08:22 PM   #28 
  - Exit polls are ok for the rest of the world and Ukraine, but our  EVDebs   Jan-12-05 08:10 PM   #21 
  - I am somewhat sure the discrepency lies here:  meganmonkey   Jan-12-05 08:11 PM   #22 
  - Correct  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 08:16 PM   #25 
  - Thanks for adding a conclusion to my babbling!!!  meganmonkey   Jan-12-05 08:18 PM   #26 
  - thanks.....very helpful  BamaBecky   Jan-12-05 09:00 PM   #49 
  - No prob! I hope it helps  meganmonkey   Jan-12-05 09:14 PM   #54 
  - Here are the state exit poll sample size..and much more  TruthIsAll   Jan-15-05 10:23 AM   #142 
  - What evidence is there that Bush won this election?  nmoliver   Jan-12-05 08:13 PM   #24 
  - Great post!  RaulVB   Jan-12-05 08:43 PM   #41 
  - thank you...very helpful  BamaBecky   Jan-12-05 09:02 PM   #50 
  - Many other points could be made about the exit polls as well.  Stevepol   Jan-12-05 09:06 PM   #52 
  - Let's see -  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 09:15 PM   #55 
     - I'm sorry, Freeman article page 7-8 counters you  ccarter84   Jan-12-05 11:14 PM   #71 
     - Here are the links that show results and exit polls of June, 2004  Lurker321   Jan-12-05 11:48 PM   #74 
        - The European Parliament ....  southwood   Jan-13-05 02:59 AM   #79 
           - Yet Freeman uses the European Parliament  Lurker321   Jan-13-05 07:22 AM   #88 
              - Well,..  southwood   Jan-13-05 03:25 PM   #91 
     - Completely bogus argument about the German elections.  thanatonautos   Jan-14-05 06:08 AM   #111 
     - Sorry, that is incorrect  Kellanved   Jan-14-05 04:13 PM   #124 
        - Discrepancy  southwood   Jan-14-05 04:51 PM   #129 
           - depends on the institute  Kellanved   Jan-14-05 05:04 PM   #130 
              - your first link refers to pre-election polls, not exit polls!  southwood   Jan-14-05 05:24 PM   #131 
                 - I've added a link with Exit poll data  Kellanved   Jan-14-05 05:30 PM   #132 
                    - Thanks, just read thru your second link...  southwood   Jan-14-05 05:56 PM   #134 
                       - Hi  Kellanved   Jan-14-05 06:02 PM   #135 
                          - Freeman assumes...  southwood   Jan-14-05 06:25 PM   #137 
                             - he is correct  Kellanved   Jan-14-05 06:28 PM   #138 
  - Yeah, baby-- you tell it.  spooked911   Jan-12-05 09:30 PM   #56 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Jan-12-05 09:34 PM   #57 
  - Yes-- they worked when you had paper ballots you could count  spooked911   Jan-12-05 09:37 PM   #58 
  - I think there is at least one...  euler   Jan-13-05 12:15 AM   #77 
  - disagree  nmoliver   Jan-13-05 07:17 AM   #86 
  - very clear, thanks!  Rebecca   Jan-13-05 07:44 AM   #89 
  - Freakin AH right dude--and Becky your post rocked too  FogerRox   Jan-13-05 05:07 PM   #97 
  - Take a direct, simple approach:  smartvoter   Jan-12-05 10:51 PM   #69 
  - Ask him to debunk the documented fraud that explains the poll results  berniew1   Jan-12-05 10:52 PM   #70 
  - thank you....very helpful  BamaBecky   Jan-13-05 05:57 AM   #80 
  - I would simply ask him, then why did Bush support the Ukrainian revote  johnaries   Jan-12-05 11:21 PM   #72 
  - Then you can ask, why did the repubs make such a fuss  rumpel   Jan-12-05 11:23 PM   #73 
  - You should ask your Republican friend...  anaxarchos   Jan-13-05 12:34 AM   #78 
  - I will.......thanks  BamaBecky   Jan-13-05 06:00 AM   #81 
  - Excellent point, anaxarchos  Der Blaue Engel   Jan-13-05 04:00 PM   #92 
  - Make a reasonable argument, use logic, show examples.  tngledwebb   Jan-13-05 06:28 AM   #85 
  - Republican friend right on one point...  flintdem   Jan-13-05 04:32 PM   #94 
  - Wrong  RaulVB   Jan-13-05 04:48 PM   #96 
  - Only if the initial votes totals match the exit poll...  flintdem   Jan-13-05 05:31 PM   #98 
     - You are mis-using this study...  anaxarchos   Jan-13-05 06:13 PM   #100 
     - I'm not misusing it...  flintdem   Jan-13-05 08:07 PM   #104 
        - OK, on the off chance that you are sincere...  anaxarchos   Jan-13-05 10:58 PM   #108 
           - Let me be clearer  flintdem   Jan-14-05 08:45 AM   #114 
              - Let me get this straight  Chi   Jan-14-05 09:39 AM   #116 
              - Clarity is always good.  anaxarchos   Jan-14-05 02:20 PM   #123 
                 - A couple points...  flintdem   Jan-15-05 01:10 PM   #147 
                    - This is a reasonable outcome to our disagreement...  anaxarchos   Jan-15-05 02:02 PM   #149 
                       - Ditto  flintdem   Jan-15-05 02:14 PM   #150 
     - the SSRC study...  southwood   Jan-13-05 06:17 PM   #102 
  - Uh, your quote doesn't support your contention  electropop   Jan-14-05 09:46 AM   #117 
  - How does he know that the sampling wasn't accurate?  info being   Jan-13-05 05:41 PM   #99 
  - Your friend is no different than the naysays we find here.  TruthIsAll   Jan-13-05 06:13 PM   #101 
  - You have such a good head on your shoulders! Thank You! eom  BamaBecky   Jan-13-05 08:34 PM   #105 
  - This focus on the "stolen" election is not healthy!  I_Love_Oregon   Jan-13-05 10:21 PM   #107 
  - Deleted message  Name removed   Jan-14-05 06:18 AM   #112 
  - Yeah. We might win the rigged game next time. My money's up...  Junkdrawer   Jan-14-05 06:18 AM   #113 
  - That stuff you're seeing is sand.  Pacifist Patriot   Jan-14-05 09:05 AM   #115 
  - Did your vote get counted?  Chi   Jan-14-05 09:49 AM   #119 
  - Noone knows for sure whether the election was stolen.  johan helge   Jan-14-05 09:52 AM   #120 
  - The evidence IS very strong for a stolen election  Time for change   Jan-14-05 04:28 PM   #126 
     - a paper trail is needed, but...  I_Love_Oregon   Jan-14-05 10:05 PM   #140 
        - Kerry did NOT lose the popular vote  Time for change   Jan-15-05 09:50 AM   #141 
           - It's a stretch..  I_Love_Oregon   Jan-15-05 11:03 AM   #143 
              - No Offense, but...  Chi   Jan-15-05 12:37 PM   #145 
                 - a scoop worth scooping  I_Love_Oregon   Jan-15-05 12:59 PM   #146 
                    - Wow  Chi   Jan-15-05 01:55 PM   #148 
                       - I've done my research  I_Love_Oregon   Jan-15-05 05:53 PM   #152 
                          - Have you read Conyers' report?  Time for change   Jan-15-05 07:15 PM   #154 
                             - SNAP OUT OF IT!  I_Love_Oregon   Jan-16-05 12:06 AM   #155 
                                - WE'RE NOT STEWING ABOUT IT  Time for change   Jan-16-05 08:03 AM   #156 
  - I think I responded to this the other day  electropop   Jan-14-05 09:47 AM   #118 
  - All of his reasons are pure crap  Time for change   Jan-14-05 04:24 PM   #125 
  - Your "friend"  troubleinwinter   Jan-14-05 04:39 PM   #128 
  - Exit Polls  LA lady   Jan-15-05 11:20 AM   #144 
     - I say they're lying about being told to lie  Time for change   Jan-16-05 10:33 AM   #159 
  - Tell them that Nostradamus has told us  ottozen   Jan-14-05 07:51 PM   #139 
  - Statistics have no precedent...  super simian   Jan-15-05 06:02 PM   #153 
  - Some points for your friend...  Prag   Jan-16-05 08:51 AM   #157 
 

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