Reply #15: RE: "percentages calculation?"

[adolfo]

Rather than calculating the percentage based on *total overall* votes you can isolate further by using total number of registered voters in the same party instead.

The formula is simple and helps spot major deviations. A regular turnout percentage only explains the candidate’s slice of the whole voting pie. It does not describe the candidate’s slice of their respective voting base.

For example,

Kerry received ___ votes which has the ratio of ___% registered Dems in the precinct. We all know there is an expected amount of Kerry votes depending on the registered Democrats in the area. The same method is used with Republicans.

In Liberty County, Bush received 64% and Kerry received 35% of the total votes counted. Looking at these numbers it is safe to assume this county has a majority of Republicans.

What it does not tell you is Bush received an average ratio of 376.37% (rough estimate) of registered Republican voters. Kerry on the other hand received a mere average of 20.2% from the registered Democrats.

Does that seem outlandish to you? It should be. As you look at other neighboring counties you will notice these numbers are not normal. Either the SOE is not doing their job in maintaining the books or someone is padding the votes with their blessing. That is just my opinion, draw your own conclusions.

Onto the subject of patterns.

The equation can also help in determining patterns. Proof of intelligent manipulation can be found when there is an established pattern.

An intelligent coder will try to use the best methods of evading different types of detection. He would have to worry about staying within a safe percentage while stealing the most votes. This would include having the same precinct stats we have. With all these variables to worry about, a mistake is inevitable. The mistake will most likely come in the form of a pattern.