Reply #78: Mitofsky May Have Started the Business

[davidgmills]

But that does not mean he is right.

His methods are only as good as the honesty of the last election. He assumes the last election was honest and because he was off in his projections he tries to correct for the "mistakes" he has made.

Freeman gives good reason to believe that exit polls are far more accurate in determining the intent of the voter than actual results.

For one thing, there is every incentive to lie cheat and steal an election because the stakes are so high. The goal is winning.

In polling, the goal is accuracy. If you are not accurate, you lose the next job.

So when a pollster is off in his projection, he assumes he is wrong, rather than assuming the election was flawed.

I think Mitofsky has been making the same mistake for years and just keeps repeating it. It can be proven that he is wrong in his assumptions.