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Reply #65: If you believe 4%, you will believe anything. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-22-04 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #64
65. If you believe 4%, you will believe anything.
Edited on Wed Dec-22-04 01:18 AM by TruthIsAll
You guys really don't know when to give up, do you?

Come on, you know as well as I, 4% is SHIT for an exit poll. Is that why they hired him? Exit poll samples are large, the individuals have already voted, the MOE is low.

That big an MOE? 4%
Why bother doing the poll?

At 8pm, Kerry was leading in the Exit polls nationwide by 51%-48%.
A total of 71,000 were already polled.
That's 63% of the final 113,000 count.

To reverse it to 51-48% Bush, he needed to win the remaining 42,000 by 56-44%.

That's a 15% turnaround from the first 71,000.
Even he's not that lucky.

The polls were RIGHT. The vote count was WRONG. Why won't you consider that? I never use Occam's razor. It's usually an excuse from doing your homework. But this time its right. The simplet explanation is that Bush stole it.

Get over it.
He has stolen it three times: '00,'02,'04.
He gets away with it each time.
Don't worry. He will again.
Maybe.

Why waste your time trying to convince me that I'm wrong?
I'm a nobody. Let me have my fun crunching numbers.
Why should that bother you?

Take your beef to Conyers.
Tell him to get the data from Mitofsky.
So we can put this all to rest.
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  -EXIT POLLS: THE LATEST MYSTERY POLLSTER BLOG - AND MY COMMENTS. TruthIsAll  Dec-19-04 03:49 PM   #0 
  - The exit polls were used  Goldeneye   Dec-19-04 04:02 PM   #1 
  - Bad data?  BeFree   Dec-19-04 08:07 PM   #6 
  - It's 3% or more  bemis12   Dec-19-04 08:13 PM   #9 
  - 4%  jkd   Dec-20-04 01:22 AM   #23 
  - No! 4% is MOE for a standard poll-600 sample size. Exit polls are better  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 01:32 AM   #24 
     - You can believe that, if you wish.  jkd   Dec-20-04 01:45 AM   #27 
        - Utah? Talk FL, OH. They were the ones Bush needed. n/t  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 01:54 AM   #30 
           - Did he only try in Florida and Ohio?  jkd   Dec-20-04 01:58 AM   #31 
              - Vote machine fraud has been documented in swing states-explains swing  berniew1   Dec-22-04 07:49 AM   #71 
                 - No defaults  jkd   Dec-22-04 08:57 AM   #75 
  - Re-poll Ohio  jkd   Dec-22-04 04:11 PM   #78 
  - The media paid 10 million for...  Pierre de Fermat   Dec-20-04 01:37 AM   #25 
  - Your opinion is void of the truth. Fermat was a great mathematician.  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 01:52 AM   #29 
  - Your Analysis  ribofunk   Dec-20-04 10:34 AM   #36 
     - "The recount in New Hampshire examined wards"  gulogulo   Dec-20-04 10:42 AM   #37 
        - Here's the Kind of Article I Was Referring to  ribofunk   Dec-20-04 03:36 PM   #44 
  - If raw numbers were released  Duncan   Dec-20-04 11:43 AM   #42 
  - MSM should demand refund from Mitofsky for shoddy exit poll work  Election Mess   Dec-21-04 06:11 AM   #56 
  - Yes  Nederland   Dec-19-04 08:14 PM   #10 
     - Flawed?  BeFree   Dec-19-04 09:08 PM   #12 
        - Agreed  Nederland   Dec-20-04 10:42 AM   #38 
  - Isn' t exit polling conducted  impeachthescoundrel   Dec-19-04 04:09 PM   #2 
  - Exit polls have been documented correct in 2000 and 2004  berniew1   Dec-19-04 04:17 PM   #3 
  - MUST READ for DUers to understand the BushCo Exit Poll Spin Machine  TruthIsAll   Dec-19-04 07:33 PM   #4 
  - kick  RubyCat   Dec-19-04 07:55 PM   #5 
  - Read the petition -- it lays out a similar case.  procinderella   Dec-19-04 08:09 PM   #7 
  - Thank You TIA  Vinnie From Indy   Dec-19-04 08:12 PM   #8 
  - Although all this is true, I still think  fshrink   Dec-19-04 08:32 PM   #11 
  - mystery pollster says:  Heewack   Dec-19-04 10:08 PM   #13 
  - Is that so? They could have fooled me. Mystery Pollster, source it.  TruthIsAll   Dec-19-04 10:13 PM   #15 
     - I'm just copying from the link you posted  Heewack   Dec-19-04 10:17 PM   #16 
     - I think Mystery Pollster does source it  gulogulo   Dec-20-04 01:44 AM   #26 
     - This is a well known phenomenon. It's simple to find studies...  Pierre de Fermat   Dec-20-04 01:50 AM   #28 
        - Thanks  Nederland   Dec-20-04 11:01 AM   #39 
  - How does MysteryPollster respond?  breadbox   Dec-19-04 10:11 PM   #14 
  - To his credit, he has posted my numbers in his blog.  TruthIsAll   Dec-19-04 10:36 PM   #17 
     - But which poll numbers are you using?  Heewack   Dec-19-04 10:39 PM   #18 
     - Exactly. Are there any others? Ask Mitofsky? Conyers already did  TruthIsAll   Dec-19-04 11:09 PM   #19 
     - The 4pm Numbers  Nederland   Dec-20-04 03:49 PM   #45 
        - Those 4pm numbers represent 71,492 individuals polled nationwide  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 08:57 PM   #48 
           - there is also no reason to believe  gulogulo   Dec-20-04 09:36 PM   #49 
           - Hasn't anyone ever told you  Nederland   Dec-21-04 09:53 AM   #59 
     - doing the math  breadbox   Dec-20-04 05:10 PM   #46 
        - I appreciate your comments.  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 09:51 PM   #51 
           - not an excel user  breadbox   Dec-20-04 10:14 PM   #52 
           - If you tend to go with Occam's razor, then you must believe Bush stole it.  TruthIsAll   Dec-21-04 07:03 AM   #57 
           - TYPO FIX: X = BINOMDIST(40, 51, .5, TRUE)  TruthIsAll   Dec-21-04 07:18 AM   #58 
  - Gotta send this one out, ...speechless at the talent at DU! n/t  btmlndfrmr   Dec-20-04 12:24 AM   #20 
  - Link?  shiina   Dec-20-04 12:53 AM   #21 
  - Here it is.  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 01:07 AM   #22 
  - Please justify your assumptions  platinumman   Dec-20-04 02:05 AM   #32 
  - Please do your homework.  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 07:21 AM   #33 
  - Yes, your data is incomplete  platinumman   Dec-21-04 02:45 AM   #54 
     - INSUFFICIENT DATA? POLLING METHODOLOGY? MOE?  TruthIsAll   Dec-21-04 11:28 AM   #62 
        - You are beating a dead horse  jkd   Dec-22-04 12:48 AM   #64 
        - If you believe 4%, you will believe anything.  TruthIsAll   Dec-22-04 01:05 AM   #65 
           - Please answer  jkd   Dec-22-04 01:17 AM   #66 
              - The BYU exit poll in Utah? You are comparing it to Mitofsky?  TruthIsAll   Dec-22-04 01:28 AM   #67 
                 - Yes, the Utah polls that Freeman cites  jkd   Dec-22-04 01:35 AM   #68 
        - You have no idea  platinumman   Dec-23-04 02:44 AM   #79 
  - Review this analysis from a senior research specialist (Ph.D.)  TruthIsAll   Dec-20-04 08:32 PM   #47 
     - Freeman and Baiman should stop citing the BYU polls.  jkd   Dec-20-04 09:46 PM   #50 
     - Who is Ron Baiman?  platinumman   Dec-21-04 02:20 AM   #53 
        - Correction  platinumman   Dec-21-04 03:36 AM   #55 
  - I always respect your posting TIA!  mod mom   Dec-20-04 08:24 AM   #34 
  - Thanks again TIA.  Duncan   Dec-20-04 10:06 AM   #35 
  - Good work TIA  zimba   Dec-20-04 11:12 AM   #40 
  - TIA, a little OT, but would you please weigh in over  IndyPriest   Dec-20-04 11:15 AM   #41 
  - Gosh TIA seems to be stirring up concern  General Paranoia   Dec-20-04 11:48 AM   #43 
  - Give them credit. They are geniuses at the art of obfuscation.  TruthIsAll   Dec-22-04 07:29 AM   #70 
  - Would it perhaps be worthwhile, TIA,  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Dec-21-04 10:16 AM   #60 
  - Sorry, TIA,  KCabotDullesMarxIII   Dec-21-04 10:41 AM   #61 
     - Nothing adversarial. I do my analysis. Let him do his.  TruthIsAll   Dec-22-04 02:16 AM   #69 
        - Post Election Poll Ohio Now  davidgmills   Dec-22-04 08:57 AM   #74 
  - Where did everybody go? I was just getting started. n/t  TruthIsAll   Dec-21-04 11:23 PM   #63 
  - We're here.  raver   Dec-22-04 07:51 AM   #72 
  - Touchscreen machine fraud has been documented in swing state- explains swi  berniew1   Dec-22-04 07:52 AM   #73 
  - I don't know a lot about exit polls.  17yroldtwins   Dec-22-04 09:03 AM   #76 
  - Absolutely compelling circumstancial evidence!  lonestarnot   Dec-22-04 09:29 AM   #77 
 

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