You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #172: Simulation [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
jmknapp Donating Member (381 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-22-04 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
172. Simulation
Edited on Wed Dec-22-04 03:35 PM by jmknapp
Ran a simulation of random vote-switching to see what happens in Cuyahoga County

* pick one of the 591,348 votes cast at polling places
* pick another precinct at the same polling place to switch it to
* if the order is the same, ignore
* if the order is different, tally result

When done a large number of times in the simulation, it turns out that Kerry loses 0.55 vote on the average for each vote switched. Bush loses 0.17 vote for each vote switched.

Overall, for each vote switched, on the average:

Kerry -0.55
Bush -0.17
Badnarik +0.24
Peroutka +0.22
Disqualified +0.26

Since Badnarik got 1,886 votes countywide, if all were due to random switches, an estimate of the total switched would be 1886/.24 = 7,858 ballots.

That's consistent with the Peroutka total since the random switch model would project 7858*.22 = 1728 votes for Peroutka. He got 1751.

If that's the case, then Kerry would have lost 7858*0.55 = 4,322 votes due to random ballot switches. Bush would have lost 7858*0.17 = 1,336.

Net, Kerry's margin might have thus been shrunk by 4322-1336 = 2,986 votes due to random ballot switches.

This would be an upper bound because of the assumption that all Badnarik/Peroutka votes are due to switches.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC