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jmknapp Donating Member (381 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-22-04 03:33 PM
Response to Original message
172. Simulation
Edited on Wed Dec-22-04 03:35 PM by jmknapp
Ran a simulation of random vote-switching to see what happens in Cuyahoga County

* pick one of the 591,348 votes cast at polling places
* pick another precinct at the same polling place to switch it to
* if the order is the same, ignore
* if the order is different, tally result

When done a large number of times in the simulation, it turns out that Kerry loses 0.55 vote on the average for each vote switched. Bush loses 0.17 vote for each vote switched.

Overall, for each vote switched, on the average:

Kerry -0.55
Bush -0.17
Badnarik +0.24
Peroutka +0.22
Disqualified +0.26

Since Badnarik got 1,886 votes countywide, if all were due to random switches, an estimate of the total switched would be 1886/.24 = 7,858 ballots.

That's consistent with the Peroutka total since the random switch model would project 7858*.22 = 1728 votes for Peroutka. He got 1751.

If that's the case, then Kerry would have lost 7858*0.55 = 4,322 votes due to random ballot switches. Bush would have lost 7858*0.17 = 1,336.

Net, Kerry's margin might have thus been shrunk by 4322-1336 = 2,986 votes due to random ballot switches.

This would be an upper bound because of the assumption that all Badnarik/Peroutka votes are due to switches.

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  -Chaos in Cuyahoga? 49,000 Votes Disappear into the Ether ...then found? Iceburg  Dec-16-04 07:17 AM   #0 
  - Was Cuyahoga County the only place  DoYouEverWonder   Dec-16-04 07:27 AM   #1 
  - Multiple precincts in vote locations are common in most counties  Iceburg   Dec-16-04 07:33 AM   #2 
     - I would assume that they only do this  DoYouEverWonder   Dec-16-04 07:40 AM   #3 
        - No, suburbs too.  skids   Dec-16-04 07:46 AM   #4 
           - A couple of differences that might be worth considering  DoYouEverWonder   Dec-16-04 08:26 AM   #5 
           - 'Burbs have more pcts per polling place on average  jmknapp   Dec-16-04 08:44 AM   #6 
              - jm -- your maps give rise to an idea on how to eliminate  Iceburg   Dec-16-04 10:51 AM   #7 
              - Joe--Do you have precinct tallies for "Disqualified candidate" for President?  AirAmFan   Dec-16-04 05:28 PM   #36 
                 - When are precinct exit poll numbers going to become available??  berniew1   Dec-17-04 07:24 AM   #50 
  - Cross-precinct voting switched votes to wrong candidate  L. Coyote   Dec-16-04 11:15 AM   #8 
  - amazing and brings many questions to mind  idealista   Dec-16-04 11:24 AM   #9 
  - Do we have detailed information on the ballot order in each precinct?  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 11:50 AM   #13 
  - GREAT question. Here's the beginning of an answer, using ballot order  AirAmFan   Dec-16-04 12:55 PM   #19 
  - Ah ha!!!! (?)  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 01:25 PM   #21 
  - You have crafted an excellent description of the transfer  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 05:38 AM   #46 
     - Thank you. What do you make of my 'back of the envelope' calculation  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 07:22 AM   #49 
        - I haven't got to it yet -- but I most ceratinly intend to.  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 07:31 AM   #51 
  - Yes we have the ballot order for each precinct from Cuyahoga's  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 05:30 AM   #45 
  - Just pick up a voting machine and move it to the next table (precinct) ...  L. Coyote   Dec-16-04 02:01 PM   #23 
  - I say this with all respect and sincerity to you, but ...  imaginary girl   Dec-17-04 01:33 AM   #43 
  - The short answer to your question ....  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:20 AM   #52 
     - Ballot switching  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 12:15 PM   #65 
     - There may or may not be a parallel shift ...  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 03:14 PM   #73 
        - All the races rotate  mulethree   Dec-17-04 04:49 PM   #79 
           - Question: Is there a specific area on the card designated  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 07:14 AM   #94 
              - How to vote on a punchcard machine, in OH2004 and FL2000 elections  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 10:00 AM   #98 
                 - Greatly appreciated but I still am in search of an answer to this  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 10:54 AM   #100 
     - Would still be detectable if used in meanigful quantities  mulethree   Dec-17-04 04:21 PM   #77 
  - You hit nail on the head idealista with your question ...  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 05:24 AM   #44 
  - The Non-Votes (undervoting) seem to be in strongest Kerry Precincts.  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 08:04 PM   #85 
  - Thanks for this work, Iceburg  donkeyotay   Dec-16-04 11:34 AM   #10 
  - Kick for iceburg's great work  Straight Shooter   Dec-16-04 11:37 AM   #11 
  - Big KICK  smartvoter   Dec-16-04 11:45 AM   #12 
  - Intriguing analysis - very insightful.  Critical Thinker   Dec-16-04 11:50 AM   #14 
  - Good Job Iceburg, well done, great work...Thank you. n/t  texpatriot2004   Dec-16-04 11:56 AM   #15 
  - You need to get this to Arnebeck. nt  smartvoter   Dec-16-04 12:07 PM   #16 
  - Hmm ... I wonder ...  Dolphyn   Dec-16-04 12:15 PM   #17 
  - All: This ties to the Caterpillar Ballot thread:  smartvoter   Dec-16-04 12:45 PM   #18 
  - Kick n/t  Emit   Dec-16-04 01:02 PM   #20 
     - Very well done, Iceberg  Quakerfriend   Dec-16-04 01:28 PM   #22 
  - I agree we needd to get our hands on a Republican county  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:25 AM   #53 
     - Joe come through...  MarkusQ   Dec-18-04 10:51 PM   #124 
  - Very nice job!  RaulVB   Dec-16-04 02:03 PM   #24 
  - Can you look at this in a Republican stronghold for comparison? (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 02:38 PM   #25 
  - I would love nothing more that to have my hands on  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:30 AM   #54 
     - Where did you get the data you are using here? (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-17-04 10:34 PM   #86 
     - The data comes from jmknapps post ...  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 05:18 AM   #92 
     - Butler County Information  minvis   Dec-20-04 05:02 PM   #135 
  - I'M SCARED for what I see this statistics!  Dcitizen   Dec-16-04 02:59 PM   #26 
  - Why isn't the 3rd party vote affected more?  mulethree   Dec-16-04 04:41 PM   #30 
     - There was also an "empty" slot to suck up votes. (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 04:56 PM   #31 
     - Also, some precincts are so heavily Kerry  jmknapp   Dec-17-04 08:34 AM   #56 
        - Pattern in % undervoting = correlation to Kerry precincts  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 04:21 PM   #76 
           - This post brings back memories of Florida 2000  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 06:22 PM   #83 
     - Done  mulethree   Dec-16-04 05:17 PM   #34 
     - Votes can spread to other parties only .2%  Dcitizen   Dec-16-04 05:45 PM   #37 
     - Good questions ... See post #43  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:36 AM   #57 
  - HOLY CRAP!!  thedutch   Dec-16-04 03:58 PM   #27 
  - Gosh ...If I only had the data ...I would accept your command  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:39 AM   #58 
  - kick! n/t  Critical Thinker   Dec-16-04 03:59 PM   #28 
  - Another Conlcusion: mutiple ballot orders made votes easy to shift !!  truehawk   Dec-16-04 04:12 PM   #29 
  - No  mulethree   Dec-16-04 05:02 PM   #32 
  - 3rd party votes  bruised   Dec-16-04 05:20 PM   #35 
  - It could if they went in the "Disqualified" slot. (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-17-04 12:05 AM   #40 
  - Remember those 93,000 "spoiled ballots with no vote for President?  truehawk   Dec-16-04 06:27 PM   #38 
  - This is a CRUCIAL, insightful question, of statewide and national importance  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 06:57 AM   #47 
     - How many disqualified were intentional?  mulethree   Dec-17-04 01:41 PM   #66 
     - Another valuable, very responsive post. Thank you! Have you uncov-  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 05:57 PM   #82 
        - ..  mulethree   Dec-17-04 11:22 PM   #88 
           - Thanks for the minor candidate distributions. See post #49 in the other  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 12:57 AM   #90 
           - The 'NOT-ALL-THE-WAY-DOWN' hypothesis for single-precinct polling  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 10:36 AM   #99 
              - how much tolerance do those machines have?  mulethree   Dec-18-04 12:46 PM   #106 
                 - Sounds as though you DO understand the mechanism I'm suggesting  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 02:13 PM   #111 
                 - This topic 'not all the way down' now has its own thread  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 05:27 PM   #118 
     - Non-Vote comparison - Cuyahoga County and Statewide  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 07:37 PM   #84 
        - Non-Votes and Candidates % Statewide Sorted by Voting Machine  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 11:13 PM   #87 
  - I disagree. "ballot rotation" is not a simple "swap". See post #19 above and  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 07:12 AM   #48 
     - I think we do agree  mulethree   Dec-17-04 02:15 PM   #69 
        - I beg to differ, there is a subset of ballot order pairs that  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 03:40 PM   #74 
        - So you're assuming only Kerry ballots as opposed to random  mulethree   Dec-17-04 04:32 PM   #78 
           - I think the intent was to only shift the Kerry ballots  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 06:43 AM   #93 
        - EXCELLENT! Agreement is good. And thanks for the posting tip  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 05:13 PM   #80 
  - Not another ... that is exactly my premise ...  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:40 AM   #59 
  - great work - the exit poll Cuyahoga percentages could prove the theory!  bruised   Dec-16-04 05:16 PM   #33 
  - Kickin' it up  Scout1071   Dec-16-04 08:35 PM   #39 
  - Very interesting! Kick.  senegal1   Dec-17-04 12:17 AM   #41 
  - Thanks Bruised. I will be further refining the analysis over the weekend  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:43 AM   #60 
  - Is your spreadsheet available? Kicking too!  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 12:42 AM   #42 
  - I can email it to you or you can pick up jmknapp's data  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 09:01 AM   #61 
     - I have the spreadsheet. Thanks  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 09:53 AM   #63 
  - CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS!  lonestarnot   Dec-17-04 08:32 AM   #55 
  - Followup: I thank all of you for the feedback and request some assistance  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 09:18 AM   #62 
  - Ohio statistical summary sorted by red / blue counties. Let's compare ...  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 11:53 AM   #64 
  - Adding to this Stats Summary: the Statewide Non-Vote percentages.  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 11:54 PM   #89 
  - Vote shifts to "Disqualified"  jmknapp   Dec-17-04 01:48 PM   #67 
  - I got a chuckle out of his reply  Critical Thinker   Dec-17-04 02:20 PM   #70 
  - I know! Obviously a typo...  jmknapp   Dec-17-04 02:26 PM   #71 
  - Maybe, maybe not  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 04:04 PM   #75 
  - Analysis of non-votes (undervoting) should reveal suspect precincts.  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 03:02 PM   #72 
  - Non-Votes equals number of Voters minus candidate votes  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 02:27 AM   #91 
  - Thanks for posting this. On my "caterpillar ballot" thread, data on Dis-  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 05:42 PM   #81 
     - great thread  jmknapp   Dec-18-04 08:50 AM   #95 
        - Anyone reading this thread should also read ....  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 09:31 AM   #96 
        - Kick for more awareness nt  goclark   Dec-18-04 09:50 AM   #97 
        - Thanks. I'd really appreciate your feedback. Do you know anything  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 11:56 AM   #103 
  - kick n/t  StephanieMarie   Dec-17-04 01:51 PM   #68 
  - Correlate with precinct size  dlaliberte   Dec-18-04 10:57 AM   #101 
  - Interesting report ... in particular, the statement about the poll books  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 11:30 AM   #102 
  - link to...  EMunster   Dec-18-04 12:03 PM   #104 
  - Size vs anomalies  dlaliberte   Dec-18-04 01:03 PM   #107 
  - General statistics for Cuyahoga .. part of the answer is  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 01:57 PM   #109 
  - U write "if we compare the signature books with the tallies, we will find  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 02:07 PM   #110 
  - Comparison of two 'Caterpillar Crawl" Precincts .. and the loser is ..  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 12:38 PM   #105 
  - In 80% of precincts, ballot crawl shifts Kerry vote to "d" .. AirAmFan ??  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 02:25 PM   #113 
  - I'm just assuming the BOE's precinct ballot shuffle was unbiased overall  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 02:58 PM   #114 
  - "You have a database with ballot order in it..."  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 04:11 PM   #117 
     - To minimize confusion, I've created a new thread for 'not all the way down'  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 05:37 PM   #119 
  - Clarification: I'm assuming there could have been 2 separate sources of  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 03:11 PM   #116 
  - Which direction are you looking?  mgr   Dec-20-04 01:03 PM   #130 
  - Iceburg, I can answer some of these questions:  Chili   Dec-18-04 01:16 PM   #108 
  - Chili: Thans for this. Do you know anything about the HISTORY  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 02:23 PM   #112 
  - I wish I knew the answer to that...  Chili   Dec-18-04 03:08 PM   #115 
     - Thanks for looking for more info. This 'ballot order' confusion  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 05:40 PM   #120 
  - Chili ... I greatly appreciate your post  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 07:33 PM   #121 
     - Iceburg, I lost track of this thread - sorry!  Chili   Dec-20-04 12:15 PM   #129 
        - Interesting ... a) if there is only a precinct ink stamp on the back and  Iceburg   Dec-20-04 06:47 PM   #137 
        - okay, now that it's over, I'll admit it...  Chili   Dec-21-04 02:21 PM   #149 
        - This is a really IMPORTANT detail: WHERE was the voter supposed to put  AirAmFan   Dec-20-04 10:18 PM   #138 
           - yes, we got an envelope...  Chili   Dec-21-04 03:09 PM   #151 
  - Reminds me of a funny Al Camus piece against corruption  Dancing_Dave   Dec-18-04 08:13 PM   #122 
  - kick n/t  L. Coyote   Dec-19-04 01:05 AM   #126 
  - Number of ballot orders at each location could be manipulated to skew...  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 09:02 PM   #123 
  - Kick for the Sunday a.m. insomniacs  Straight Shooter   Dec-19-04 12:56 AM   #125 
  - I'll never get any sleep ...  Iceburg   Dec-19-04 11:21 AM   #127 
  - kick n/t  L. Coyote   Dec-19-04 07:22 PM   #128 
  - Graph 2, number of polling places?  mgr   Dec-20-04 01:14 PM   #131 
  - Maps  jmknapp   Dec-20-04 02:06 PM   #134 
     - Some Cuyahoga ballot order statistics  L. Coyote   Dec-20-04 11:11 PM   #139 
     - LC, I have all the ballot orders plus a new findings ....  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:13 AM   #164 
        - More indications of where to analyze.  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 10:47 PM   #190 
     - Distribution of Ballot Orders in Cuyahoga-Sorted by Ballot Number  L. Coyote   Dec-20-04 11:39 PM   #140 
     - The last column is the one that really counts, and that looks random  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 12:31 AM   #142 
     - The ballot orders are treated equally  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 07:37 AM   #143 
     - Before I answer this post, let's return to a related issue: Did you see my  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 11:53 AM   #144 
        - Yes, but the idea of a manual process for 1436 precincts  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 12:23 PM   #146 
           - Thanks! Very helpful. Do you have the latitude and longitude of each precinct up  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 01:26 PM   #147 
              - Yes, lat/lon data are in the file linked above n/t  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 02:01 PM   #148 
                 - Joe--How would you suggest finding the census block group closest  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 07:38 PM   #157 
     - Ballot Order, Machine Distribution, and How to Fix an Election for Dummies  L. Coyote   Dec-21-04 07:05 PM   #156 
        - The ballot sequence is b . B . K . d . p  L. Coyote   Dec-21-04 11:34 PM   #160 
        - I have analyzed a subse of 2-2-176 data set ... interesting relationship  Iceburg   Dec-21-04 11:46 PM   #161 
           - In the two ballot subset there are four combinations  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 01:53 AM   #165 
           - LC ...I'm not following - perhaps I need a little shut eye but ...  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 02:43 AM   #166 
           - Here is a subset of the 2 ballot type locations  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 07:55 PM   #176 
              - Example & Selection --Right on LC!!!!  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 08:34 PM   #177 
              - The Excel should be uploaded now. I uploaded the wrong file. n/t  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 09:42 PM   #180 
     - Sorry, LC. Joe's right in #143, and I was confused in #142  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 06:56 PM   #155 
     - Number of Votes for Candidates Sorted by # Ballot Types at Locations  L. Coyote   Dec-21-04 12:00 AM   #141 
     - Interesting pattern  mgr   Dec-21-04 03:40 PM   #153 
  - Question - Why does the Precinct totals differ between the  mikelewis   Dec-20-04 01:28 PM   #132 
  - Cuyahoga reported its absentee results in 22-line blocks  AirAmFan   Dec-20-04 01:52 PM   #133 
  - Question - Why does the total number of people registered change  mikelewis   Dec-20-04 05:51 PM   #136 
  - Butler County Info  minvis   Dec-21-04 12:02 PM   #145 
  - What about TRENTON 5EA?  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 03:06 PM   #150 
  - Trenton 5EA  minvis   Dec-21-04 03:32 PM   #152 
  - That's excellent news Minvis. Plus New FINDINGS!!!!!  Iceburg   Dec-21-04 08:49 PM   #158 
     - More Butler County Info  minvis   Dec-28-04 11:34 PM   #192 
        - I would like to see these numbers as percentages of the vote.  L. Coyote   Dec-29-04 12:10 AM   #193 
        - It really is a fascinating phenomenon at least  jmknapp   Dec-29-04 08:41 AM   #194 
  - Doesn't this lead us to likely suspects?  IndyPriest   Dec-21-04 05:29 PM   #154 
  - Am I missing something obvious?  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 12:03 AM   #162 
     - And to make sure those ballot shifts go as planned  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:11 AM   #163 
        - RE: Cross-Precinct Voting. Is the game fixed by voting machine types?  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 11:58 AM   #169 
           - Very interesting analysis LC  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:40 PM   #170 
              - Many strategies to shave points adds up.  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 07:15 PM   #175 
  - Code or Poll Workers  minvis   Dec-21-04 11:12 PM   #159 
  - Iceburg...  Chili   Dec-22-04 09:09 AM   #167 
  - Goof Info Chili -- "they leave out the precinct so it can be filled in lat  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 10:40 AM   #168 
  - "Good Info Chili - "they leave out the precinct so it can be filled in  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:44 PM   #171 
  - Simulation  jmknapp   Dec-22-04 03:33 PM   #172 
  - JM can you run the simulation with this criteria ...  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 05:04 PM   #173 
  - Hi Iceberg  jmknapp   Dec-22-04 05:45 PM   #174 
     - In Two Ballot Precincts, there are only Two Patterns of Switching  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 09:05 PM   #179 
  - Non-Random Ballot Order Combinations Produce Even More Shift ...  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 08:36 PM   #178 
  - Assumptions  jmknapp   Dec-22-04 09:45 PM   #181 
  - How many votes would Badnarik have gotten in Cuyahoga?  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 12:03 AM   #182 
  - A rough guess...  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 01:44 AM   #183 
  - Ballpark  jmknapp   Dec-23-04 05:21 PM   #186 
  - Correction: Applause for the reader who notices these fine points!!  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 12:41 PM   #185 
  - Not all things being random impacts simulation models/complexities ...  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 09:52 PM   #188 
  - Blackwell has some words about the reasons for non-votes  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 09:33 AM   #184 
  - Since the non-votes were more prevalent in black precincts  jmknapp   Dec-23-04 05:25 PM   #187 
  - Statistical Summaries for the "Number of Ballot Orders" Subsets  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 10:28 PM   #189 
  - Uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County by Richard Hayes Phillips  L. Coyote   Dec-26-04 12:51 AM   #191 
 

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