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Reply #91: Non-Votes equals number of Voters minus candidate votes [View All]

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-18-04 02:27 AM
Response to Reply #72
91. Non-Votes equals number of Voters minus candidate votes
I realize I have been mixing terms. My stat "non-votes" is based on the total of voters minus the total number of votes for the four candidates. So non-votes includes hanging chads, the none-of-the-above crowd, the hypothetical too-stupid-to-vote crowd in some neighborhoods (yeah right), the why-doesn't-this-damn-stylus-fit-in-this-hole problem, and, of course, "caterpillar crawl."
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  -Chaos in Cuyahoga? 49,000 Votes Disappear into the Ether ...then found? Iceburg  Dec-16-04 07:17 AM   #0 
  - Was Cuyahoga County the only place  DoYouEverWonder   Dec-16-04 07:27 AM   #1 
  - Multiple precincts in vote locations are common in most counties  Iceburg   Dec-16-04 07:33 AM   #2 
     - I would assume that they only do this  DoYouEverWonder   Dec-16-04 07:40 AM   #3 
        - No, suburbs too.  skids   Dec-16-04 07:46 AM   #4 
           - A couple of differences that might be worth considering  DoYouEverWonder   Dec-16-04 08:26 AM   #5 
           - 'Burbs have more pcts per polling place on average  jmknapp   Dec-16-04 08:44 AM   #6 
              - jm -- your maps give rise to an idea on how to eliminate  Iceburg   Dec-16-04 10:51 AM   #7 
              - Joe--Do you have precinct tallies for "Disqualified candidate" for President?  AirAmFan   Dec-16-04 05:28 PM   #36 
                 - When are precinct exit poll numbers going to become available??  berniew1   Dec-17-04 07:24 AM   #50 
  - Cross-precinct voting switched votes to wrong candidate  L. Coyote   Dec-16-04 11:15 AM   #8 
  - amazing and brings many questions to mind  idealista   Dec-16-04 11:24 AM   #9 
  - Do we have detailed information on the ballot order in each precinct?  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 11:50 AM   #13 
  - GREAT question. Here's the beginning of an answer, using ballot order  AirAmFan   Dec-16-04 12:55 PM   #19 
  - Ah ha!!!! (?)  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 01:25 PM   #21 
  - You have crafted an excellent description of the transfer  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 05:38 AM   #46 
     - Thank you. What do you make of my 'back of the envelope' calculation  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 07:22 AM   #49 
        - I haven't got to it yet -- but I most ceratinly intend to.  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 07:31 AM   #51 
  - Yes we have the ballot order for each precinct from Cuyahoga's  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 05:30 AM   #45 
  - Just pick up a voting machine and move it to the next table (precinct) ...  L. Coyote   Dec-16-04 02:01 PM   #23 
  - I say this with all respect and sincerity to you, but ...  imaginary girl   Dec-17-04 01:33 AM   #43 
  - The short answer to your question ....  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:20 AM   #52 
     - Ballot switching  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 12:15 PM   #65 
     - There may or may not be a parallel shift ...  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 03:14 PM   #73 
        - All the races rotate  mulethree   Dec-17-04 04:49 PM   #79 
           - Question: Is there a specific area on the card designated  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 07:14 AM   #94 
              - How to vote on a punchcard machine, in OH2004 and FL2000 elections  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 10:00 AM   #98 
                 - Greatly appreciated but I still am in search of an answer to this  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 10:54 AM   #100 
     - Would still be detectable if used in meanigful quantities  mulethree   Dec-17-04 04:21 PM   #77 
  - You hit nail on the head idealista with your question ...  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 05:24 AM   #44 
  - The Non-Votes (undervoting) seem to be in strongest Kerry Precincts.  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 08:04 PM   #85 
  - Thanks for this work, Iceburg  donkeyotay   Dec-16-04 11:34 AM   #10 
  - Kick for iceburg's great work  Straight Shooter   Dec-16-04 11:37 AM   #11 
  - Big KICK  smartvoter   Dec-16-04 11:45 AM   #12 
  - Intriguing analysis - very insightful.  Critical Thinker   Dec-16-04 11:50 AM   #14 
  - Good Job Iceburg, well done, great work...Thank you. n/t  texpatriot2004   Dec-16-04 11:56 AM   #15 
  - You need to get this to Arnebeck. nt  smartvoter   Dec-16-04 12:07 PM   #16 
  - Hmm ... I wonder ...  Dolphyn   Dec-16-04 12:15 PM   #17 
  - All: This ties to the Caterpillar Ballot thread:  smartvoter   Dec-16-04 12:45 PM   #18 
  - Kick n/t  Emit   Dec-16-04 01:02 PM   #20 
     - Very well done, Iceberg  Quakerfriend   Dec-16-04 01:28 PM   #22 
  - I agree we needd to get our hands on a Republican county  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:25 AM   #53 
     - Joe come through...  MarkusQ   Dec-18-04 10:51 PM   #124 
  - Very nice job!  RaulVB   Dec-16-04 02:03 PM   #24 
  - Can you look at this in a Republican stronghold for comparison? (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 02:38 PM   #25 
  - I would love nothing more that to have my hands on  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:30 AM   #54 
     - Where did you get the data you are using here? (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-17-04 10:34 PM   #86 
     - The data comes from jmknapps post ...  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 05:18 AM   #92 
     - Butler County Information  minvis   Dec-20-04 05:02 PM   #135 
  - I'M SCARED for what I see this statistics!  Dcitizen   Dec-16-04 02:59 PM   #26 
  - Why isn't the 3rd party vote affected more?  mulethree   Dec-16-04 04:41 PM   #30 
     - There was also an "empty" slot to suck up votes. (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-16-04 04:56 PM   #31 
     - Also, some precincts are so heavily Kerry  jmknapp   Dec-17-04 08:34 AM   #56 
        - Pattern in % undervoting = correlation to Kerry precincts  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 04:21 PM   #76 
           - This post brings back memories of Florida 2000  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 06:22 PM   #83 
     - Done  mulethree   Dec-16-04 05:17 PM   #34 
     - Votes can spread to other parties only .2%  Dcitizen   Dec-16-04 05:45 PM   #37 
     - Good questions ... See post #43  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:36 AM   #57 
  - HOLY CRAP!!  thedutch   Dec-16-04 03:58 PM   #27 
  - Gosh ...If I only had the data ...I would accept your command  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:39 AM   #58 
  - kick! n/t  Critical Thinker   Dec-16-04 03:59 PM   #28 
  - Another Conlcusion: mutiple ballot orders made votes easy to shift !!  truehawk   Dec-16-04 04:12 PM   #29 
  - No  mulethree   Dec-16-04 05:02 PM   #32 
  - 3rd party votes  bruised   Dec-16-04 05:20 PM   #35 
  - It could if they went in the "Disqualified" slot. (n/t)  MarkusQ   Dec-17-04 12:05 AM   #40 
  - Remember those 93,000 "spoiled ballots with no vote for President?  truehawk   Dec-16-04 06:27 PM   #38 
  - This is a CRUCIAL, insightful question, of statewide and national importance  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 06:57 AM   #47 
     - How many disqualified were intentional?  mulethree   Dec-17-04 01:41 PM   #66 
     - Another valuable, very responsive post. Thank you! Have you uncov-  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 05:57 PM   #82 
        - ..  mulethree   Dec-17-04 11:22 PM   #88 
           - Thanks for the minor candidate distributions. See post #49 in the other  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 12:57 AM   #90 
           - The 'NOT-ALL-THE-WAY-DOWN' hypothesis for single-precinct polling  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 10:36 AM   #99 
              - how much tolerance do those machines have?  mulethree   Dec-18-04 12:46 PM   #106 
                 - Sounds as though you DO understand the mechanism I'm suggesting  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 02:13 PM   #111 
                 - This topic 'not all the way down' now has its own thread  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 05:27 PM   #118 
     - Non-Vote comparison - Cuyahoga County and Statewide  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 07:37 PM   #84 
        - Non-Votes and Candidates % Statewide Sorted by Voting Machine  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 11:13 PM   #87 
  - I disagree. "ballot rotation" is not a simple "swap". See post #19 above and  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 07:12 AM   #48 
     - I think we do agree  mulethree   Dec-17-04 02:15 PM   #69 
        - I beg to differ, there is a subset of ballot order pairs that  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 03:40 PM   #74 
        - So you're assuming only Kerry ballots as opposed to random  mulethree   Dec-17-04 04:32 PM   #78 
           - I think the intent was to only shift the Kerry ballots  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 06:43 AM   #93 
        - EXCELLENT! Agreement is good. And thanks for the posting tip  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 05:13 PM   #80 
  - Not another ... that is exactly my premise ...  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:40 AM   #59 
  - great work - the exit poll Cuyahoga percentages could prove the theory!  bruised   Dec-16-04 05:16 PM   #33 
  - Kickin' it up  Scout1071   Dec-16-04 08:35 PM   #39 
  - Very interesting! Kick.  senegal1   Dec-17-04 12:17 AM   #41 
  - Thanks Bruised. I will be further refining the analysis over the weekend  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 08:43 AM   #60 
  - Is your spreadsheet available? Kicking too!  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 12:42 AM   #42 
  - I can email it to you or you can pick up jmknapp's data  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 09:01 AM   #61 
     - I have the spreadsheet. Thanks  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 09:53 AM   #63 
  - CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS!  lonestarnot   Dec-17-04 08:32 AM   #55 
  - Followup: I thank all of you for the feedback and request some assistance  Iceburg   Dec-17-04 09:18 AM   #62 
  - Ohio statistical summary sorted by red / blue counties. Let's compare ...  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 11:53 AM   #64 
  - Adding to this Stats Summary: the Statewide Non-Vote percentages.  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 11:54 PM   #89 
  - Vote shifts to "Disqualified"  jmknapp   Dec-17-04 01:48 PM   #67 
  - I got a chuckle out of his reply  Critical Thinker   Dec-17-04 02:20 PM   #70 
  - I know! Obviously a typo...  jmknapp   Dec-17-04 02:26 PM   #71 
  - Maybe, maybe not  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 04:04 PM   #75 
  - Analysis of non-votes (undervoting) should reveal suspect precincts.  L. Coyote   Dec-17-04 03:02 PM   #72 
  - Non-Votes equals number of Voters minus candidate votes  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 02:27 AM   #91 
  - Thanks for posting this. On my "caterpillar ballot" thread, data on Dis-  AirAmFan   Dec-17-04 05:42 PM   #81 
     - great thread  jmknapp   Dec-18-04 08:50 AM   #95 
        - Anyone reading this thread should also read ....  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 09:31 AM   #96 
        - Kick for more awareness nt  goclark   Dec-18-04 09:50 AM   #97 
        - Thanks. I'd really appreciate your feedback. Do you know anything  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 11:56 AM   #103 
  - kick n/t  StephanieMarie   Dec-17-04 01:51 PM   #68 
  - Correlate with precinct size  dlaliberte   Dec-18-04 10:57 AM   #101 
  - Interesting report ... in particular, the statement about the poll books  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 11:30 AM   #102 
  - link to...  EMunster   Dec-18-04 12:03 PM   #104 
  - Size vs anomalies  dlaliberte   Dec-18-04 01:03 PM   #107 
  - General statistics for Cuyahoga .. part of the answer is  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 01:57 PM   #109 
  - U write "if we compare the signature books with the tallies, we will find  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 02:07 PM   #110 
  - Comparison of two 'Caterpillar Crawl" Precincts .. and the loser is ..  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 12:38 PM   #105 
  - In 80% of precincts, ballot crawl shifts Kerry vote to "d" .. AirAmFan ??  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 02:25 PM   #113 
  - I'm just assuming the BOE's precinct ballot shuffle was unbiased overall  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 02:58 PM   #114 
  - "You have a database with ballot order in it..."  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 04:11 PM   #117 
     - To minimize confusion, I've created a new thread for 'not all the way down'  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 05:37 PM   #119 
  - Clarification: I'm assuming there could have been 2 separate sources of  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 03:11 PM   #116 
  - Which direction are you looking?  mgr   Dec-20-04 01:03 PM   #130 
  - Iceburg, I can answer some of these questions:  Chili   Dec-18-04 01:16 PM   #108 
  - Chili: Thans for this. Do you know anything about the HISTORY  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 02:23 PM   #112 
  - I wish I knew the answer to that...  Chili   Dec-18-04 03:08 PM   #115 
     - Thanks for looking for more info. This 'ballot order' confusion  AirAmFan   Dec-18-04 05:40 PM   #120 
  - Chili ... I greatly appreciate your post  Iceburg   Dec-18-04 07:33 PM   #121 
     - Iceburg, I lost track of this thread - sorry!  Chili   Dec-20-04 12:15 PM   #129 
        - Interesting ... a) if there is only a precinct ink stamp on the back and  Iceburg   Dec-20-04 06:47 PM   #137 
        - okay, now that it's over, I'll admit it...  Chili   Dec-21-04 02:21 PM   #149 
        - This is a really IMPORTANT detail: WHERE was the voter supposed to put  AirAmFan   Dec-20-04 10:18 PM   #138 
           - yes, we got an envelope...  Chili   Dec-21-04 03:09 PM   #151 
  - Reminds me of a funny Al Camus piece against corruption  Dancing_Dave   Dec-18-04 08:13 PM   #122 
  - kick n/t  L. Coyote   Dec-19-04 01:05 AM   #126 
  - Number of ballot orders at each location could be manipulated to skew...  L. Coyote   Dec-18-04 09:02 PM   #123 
  - Kick for the Sunday a.m. insomniacs  Straight Shooter   Dec-19-04 12:56 AM   #125 
  - I'll never get any sleep ...  Iceburg   Dec-19-04 11:21 AM   #127 
  - kick n/t  L. Coyote   Dec-19-04 07:22 PM   #128 
  - Graph 2, number of polling places?  mgr   Dec-20-04 01:14 PM   #131 
  - Maps  jmknapp   Dec-20-04 02:06 PM   #134 
     - Some Cuyahoga ballot order statistics  L. Coyote   Dec-20-04 11:11 PM   #139 
     - LC, I have all the ballot orders plus a new findings ....  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:13 AM   #164 
        - More indications of where to analyze.  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 10:47 PM   #190 
     - Distribution of Ballot Orders in Cuyahoga-Sorted by Ballot Number  L. Coyote   Dec-20-04 11:39 PM   #140 
     - The last column is the one that really counts, and that looks random  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 12:31 AM   #142 
     - The ballot orders are treated equally  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 07:37 AM   #143 
     - Before I answer this post, let's return to a related issue: Did you see my  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 11:53 AM   #144 
        - Yes, but the idea of a manual process for 1436 precincts  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 12:23 PM   #146 
           - Thanks! Very helpful. Do you have the latitude and longitude of each precinct up  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 01:26 PM   #147 
              - Yes, lat/lon data are in the file linked above n/t  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 02:01 PM   #148 
                 - Joe--How would you suggest finding the census block group closest  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 07:38 PM   #157 
     - Ballot Order, Machine Distribution, and How to Fix an Election for Dummies  L. Coyote   Dec-21-04 07:05 PM   #156 
        - The ballot sequence is b . B . K . d . p  L. Coyote   Dec-21-04 11:34 PM   #160 
        - I have analyzed a subse of 2-2-176 data set ... interesting relationship  Iceburg   Dec-21-04 11:46 PM   #161 
           - In the two ballot subset there are four combinations  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 01:53 AM   #165 
           - LC ...I'm not following - perhaps I need a little shut eye but ...  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 02:43 AM   #166 
           - Here is a subset of the 2 ballot type locations  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 07:55 PM   #176 
              - Example & Selection --Right on LC!!!!  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 08:34 PM   #177 
              - The Excel should be uploaded now. I uploaded the wrong file. n/t  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 09:42 PM   #180 
     - Sorry, LC. Joe's right in #143, and I was confused in #142  AirAmFan   Dec-21-04 06:56 PM   #155 
     - Number of Votes for Candidates Sorted by # Ballot Types at Locations  L. Coyote   Dec-21-04 12:00 AM   #141 
     - Interesting pattern  mgr   Dec-21-04 03:40 PM   #153 
  - Question - Why does the Precinct totals differ between the  mikelewis   Dec-20-04 01:28 PM   #132 
  - Cuyahoga reported its absentee results in 22-line blocks  AirAmFan   Dec-20-04 01:52 PM   #133 
  - Question - Why does the total number of people registered change  mikelewis   Dec-20-04 05:51 PM   #136 
  - Butler County Info  minvis   Dec-21-04 12:02 PM   #145 
  - What about TRENTON 5EA?  jmknapp   Dec-21-04 03:06 PM   #150 
  - Trenton 5EA  minvis   Dec-21-04 03:32 PM   #152 
  - That's excellent news Minvis. Plus New FINDINGS!!!!!  Iceburg   Dec-21-04 08:49 PM   #158 
     - More Butler County Info  minvis   Dec-28-04 11:34 PM   #192 
        - I would like to see these numbers as percentages of the vote.  L. Coyote   Dec-29-04 12:10 AM   #193 
        - It really is a fascinating phenomenon at least  jmknapp   Dec-29-04 08:41 AM   #194 
  - Doesn't this lead us to likely suspects?  IndyPriest   Dec-21-04 05:29 PM   #154 
  - Am I missing something obvious?  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 12:03 AM   #162 
     - And to make sure those ballot shifts go as planned  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:11 AM   #163 
        - RE: Cross-Precinct Voting. Is the game fixed by voting machine types?  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 11:58 AM   #169 
           - Very interesting analysis LC  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:40 PM   #170 
              - Many strategies to shave points adds up.  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 07:15 PM   #175 
  - Code or Poll Workers  minvis   Dec-21-04 11:12 PM   #159 
  - Iceburg...  Chili   Dec-22-04 09:09 AM   #167 
  - Goof Info Chili -- "they leave out the precinct so it can be filled in lat  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 10:40 AM   #168 
  - "Good Info Chili - "they leave out the precinct so it can be filled in  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 01:44 PM   #171 
  - Simulation  jmknapp   Dec-22-04 03:33 PM   #172 
  - JM can you run the simulation with this criteria ...  Iceburg   Dec-22-04 05:04 PM   #173 
  - Hi Iceberg  jmknapp   Dec-22-04 05:45 PM   #174 
     - In Two Ballot Precincts, there are only Two Patterns of Switching  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 09:05 PM   #179 
  - Non-Random Ballot Order Combinations Produce Even More Shift ...  L. Coyote   Dec-22-04 08:36 PM   #178 
  - Assumptions  jmknapp   Dec-22-04 09:45 PM   #181 
  - How many votes would Badnarik have gotten in Cuyahoga?  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 12:03 AM   #182 
  - A rough guess...  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 01:44 AM   #183 
  - Ballpark  jmknapp   Dec-23-04 05:21 PM   #186 
  - Correction: Applause for the reader who notices these fine points!!  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 12:41 PM   #185 
  - Not all things being random impacts simulation models/complexities ...  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 09:52 PM   #188 
  - Blackwell has some words about the reasons for non-votes  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 09:33 AM   #184 
  - Since the non-votes were more prevalent in black precincts  jmknapp   Dec-23-04 05:25 PM   #187 
  - Statistical Summaries for the "Number of Ballot Orders" Subsets  L. Coyote   Dec-23-04 10:28 PM   #189 
  - Uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County by Richard Hayes Phillips  L. Coyote   Dec-26-04 12:51 AM   #191 
 

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